Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan: Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment

Executive Summary

Issue and why it needs to be addressed

The Grangemouth Industrial Cluster is one of Scotland’s largest manufacturing hubs consisting of multiple large operators focused on the import of finished fuels, port operations and logistics as well as chemicals and pharmaceuticals manufacturing, with a cohort of many smaller businesses co-located nearby.

The JTP is the Scottish Government’s first place-based Just Transition Plan, that works to support a decarbonised industrial cluster whilst embedding positive outcomes for the workforce and wider community of Grangemouth. Grangemouth is Scotland’s largest and most carbon intensive manufacturing cluster and will be directly impacted by Scotland’s energy transition. The Grangemouth JTP has been developed as a policy approach with that aims to provide enhanced support through this significant transition by strengthening co-ordination activity across industry, workforce, community and relevant public sector bodies.

Intended outcomes

The JTP has been developed with a view to ensuring the co-ordination and targeted action is in place to ensure as far as possible that the industrial cluster experiences a managed transition to net zero and that this maximises benefits for business, workers and the local community. Th eplan presents a series of just transition outcomes, capturing what success will look like and fundamentally to ensure that communities and workers are given due consideration and input into decision making that supports the economic growth of Grangemouth as it transitions to net zero To achieve this, the plan also includes a series of 21 actions that will enable a just transition for Grangemouth.

Options

This BRIA is based on the actions outlined within the JTP as currently proposed, which was published by the Scottish Government on 18 June 2025.

The Scottish Government has also considered and screened out a ‘do-nothing’ approach as an alternative to planning a just transition for Grangemouth. More information on this option is outlined in section 1 of this BRIA.

Sectors affected

As the core sectors that make up the Grangemouth industrial cluster, it is likely that the energy, waste processing, distribution, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, agriculture, education, and petrochemical and fine-chemical production sectors stand to be impacted at a national level by the actions set out within the JTP.

A list of businesses within the cluster are outlined in more detail within Section 1 of this BRIA.

Engagement completed, ongoing and planned

In drafting the JTP the Scottish Government has engaged extensively with a number of industrial operators and other businesses across Grangemouth. This engagement has been coordinated via the Grangemouth Future Industry Board (GFIB).

Engagement with businesses was undertaken via a series of structured interviews, in-person and online meetings of the GFIB, thematic workshops and a public consultation on the draft version of the JTP. As the party responsible for delivering the actions set out within the JTP, it is anticipated that business representatives on GFIB will be continually engaged as the actions within the plan are undertaken. Further, and in line with the JTP’s monitoring and evaluation process, it is anticipated that business representatives within GFIB will be asked to report into GFIB every two years to provide data that will be used to evaluate the efficacy of plan’s progress.

Anticipated impacts (intended and unintended, positive and negative) and mitigating actions

The JTP is anticipated to have a positive impact on businesses throughout the Grangemouth area and associated supply chain.

Positive intended impacts as a result of the JTP include: better coordination across existing sites in Grangemouth; improving the attractiveness of the area for potential investment; more efficient and accessible regulation; job creation and; improved social cohesion between businesses and the local community.

Unintended negative impacts arising from the plan may include potentially higher operational costs associated with the encouragement of enhanced decarbonisation measures and complex processes for businesses to engage in the development of actions outlined within the Plan. However we will continue to assess these aspects and mitigate through the Grangemouth Future Industry Board.

Enforcement/compliance

The proposed actions set out within the JTP will be taken forward by members of the GFIB, with oversight from the Scottish Government. The Scottish Government, through Scottish Enterprise, will be responsible for coordinating the efforts of GFIB workstreams to collect and analyse data that will inform the monitoring and evaluation process outlined within the JTP.

Recommendations/implementation plans

This BRIA sets out the rationale in support of taking forward the recommended actions outlined within the JTP. These actions will be taken forward by the GFIB with oversight from the Scottish Government.

Evaluation and monitoring of implementation/ review of BRIA

The JTP outlines a robust Monitoring and Evaluation Framework that sets out a series of qualitative and quantitative indicators against which the plan’s efficacy will be measured. This includes measures of income deprivation, health outcomes, and employment data.

Action owners will be required to report into this framework, and the Scottish Government has committed to publishing its findings on monitoring and evaluation for the JTP every two years. At each stage of this cycle, the Scottish Government will consider whether an additional BRIA is required.