Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan: Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment

Introduction

The Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan (JTP) is the Scottish Government’s first place-based Just Transition Plan, which articulates the Scottish Government’s approach to decarbonising the Grangemouth industrial cluster whilst embedding positive and equitable outcomes for the workforce and wider community of Grangemouth. The plan makes clear our vision for the future of the industrial cluster and charts a series of actions focussing on securing long-term investment that will help us to achieve our net zero ambitions by codesigning solutions with and for business as well as the wider community A public consultation on a draft version of the Grangemouth Industrial Just Transition Plan was held between November 2024 and February 2025.

The JTP proposes a series of 21 actions that will enable a just transition for Grangemouth. These actions have been divided into near, medium, and longer-term activities. The actions are focussed on improving a range of areas and themes across the cluster, including aligning strategy and governance, improving access to jobs and skills, regulatory changes, enhanced engagement between community and industry, and the growth of investment in the cluster, supported by increased access to Scottish and UK Government funding. The efficacy of these actions will be measured against a robust monitoring and evaluation framework, which is also set out within the JTP. This impact assessment aims to identify the potential impacts of these and actions on businesses.

This document is a final Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment (BRIA). However, of the 21 actions outlined within the Plan, some are significantly developed or underway while others will require further scoping and agreement across the Grangemouth Future Industry Board (GFIB) before they commence. We have therefore developed an internal Theory of Change (ToC) to assess the projected impact of this programme. This ToC identifies a series of impact pathways which have enabled us to make a series of informed assumptions on the potential impact of actions set out within the JTP. To this end, the Scottish Government acknowledges the potential requirement for further BRIA activity to be considered for individual actions currently set out at a high level within the JTP prior to their commencement.