Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS): Methodology Publication 2025-26
Details of the methodology used to obtain estimates of public sector revenues and expenditure for the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2025-26 publication.
Part of
Quality and Methodology
1. Output information
- Accredited Official Statistic: yes
Statistics on Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland – Office for Statistics Regulation
- Data collection: multiple
- Frequency: annual , Produced since 1997
- How compiled: using various data sources and constraining to the UK public sector finances
- Geographic coverage: Scotland and UK
- Time period; data are presented on financial year basis ending March . Data are available for the financial year ending March 1999 through to the most recently published year
- Related publications: ONS Country and Regional Public sector finances, HMT Country and Regional Analysis
2. About this Quality and Methodology Information report
This Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report contains information on the quality characteristics of the data as well as the methods used to create it. The information in this report will help you to:
- understand the strengths and limitations of the data
- learn about existing uses and users of the data
- understand the methods used to create the data decide suitable uses for the data reduce the risk of misusing data
3. What the statistics cover
Overview
The aim of Government Expenditure and Revenue Statistics is to provide users with information on what public sector expenditure has occurred for the benefit of the population and business in Scotland, whoever spends it, and compares that to taxes raised, whoever collects them.
- The main statistics presented are:
- total revenue,
- total current and capital expenditure, and
- net fiscal balance
- Measures are presented
- Per person
- As a percentage of GDP
Measurement Concepts
- The statistics are based on the underlying data and concepts used in the UK PSF (Public Sector Finance) and, so, are consistent with UK-level administrative data and national accounts concepts used on ONS Country and Regional Public Sector Finances.
- The statistics reflect the situation of Scotland as part of the current constitutional situation. That is, Scotland with a devolved government as part of the UK.
- Further devolution or independence may result in different choices about the type of economy and society that we live in, this would impact on these statistics in the long term.
- while net fiscal balance is the gap between total current revenue and total expenditure, this should not be interpreted as the "net borrowing" of Scotland and the net fiscal balance is not reflective of the limited borrowing powers of the devolved administrations.
4. Quality Summary
Users and uses
Our users include policy-makers, analysts and the general public.
These statistics may be used to:
- enable better consideration of policy and better modelling
- inform debates around tax devolution
- provide historic time series
GERS user feedback form.
We are always reviewing our statistical work programme, so our methods and outputs remain robust and meet our stakeholders needs. Please feedback on the content and format of the GERS publication by completing the form below:
Government Expenditure and Revenue Statistics – User form
5. Quality Characteristics
Accuracy and Reliability
(Accuracy is the absence of systematic errors that always cause estimated values to deviate from true values in the same direction. The main sources of error are described and assessed here.)
Sampling error
Sampling error Sampling error occurs when statistics are based on random samples from the population of interest. For example, the Living Costs and Food Survey (LCF), (data from this survey is used to apportion tobacco duties, insurance premium tax, betting and gaming duties, and soft drinks industry levy and, indirectly, alcohol duties), uses expenditure data from a random sample of individuals to estimate the average expenditure of the UK population. (Table A5)
Much of the data used come from administrative sources and are therefore not subject to sampling error. Confidence intervals are provided in table A5
Living Costs and Food Survey: technical report data tables - Office for National Statistics
Coverage error, measurement bias and processing error
Coverage error occurs when the population being measured does not align to the population of interest. This is present in the case of some indicators.
Measurement bias refers to consistent differences between a measured quantity and the quantity of interest. This may be attributable to imperfect methods of observation or indirect measurement. One example is self-reported alcohol consumption, which is used to apportion alcohol duties. This is known to be lower than actual consumption. Under the assumption that under-reporting is proportionally consistent across regions, this is not a cause for concern.
Processing errors are mistakes made by humans. They include incorrect data entry, categorisation, and calculation. These errors are minimised by quality assurance procedures.
Revisions
Revision tables can be found in the GERS 2025-26 tables.
Revisions are an important aspect of the accuracy and reliability of these statistics.
Revisions to Scottish estimates can stem from three sources: revisions to UK totals; revisions to apportionment data; and updated apportionment methodologies. Revisions to UK totals for previous years will be larger than usual due to the uncertainty around measuring the public finances during the coronavirus pandemic.
Revisions to Non-North Sea Revenue Estimates from GERS 2024-25 (Table B1,B2)
There are a number of revisions to UK revenue totals from GERS 2024-25, with overall UK non-North Sea revenue for 2024-25 revised by 1.2%. The main revisions relate to Gross Operating Surplus. This follows a change to the apportionment for central government gross operating surplus, as set out in the revenue methodology. This change does not affect the net fiscal balance.
Revisions to North Sea Revenue Estimates from GERS 2024-25 (Table B3)
Table B.3 summarises the revisions to North Sea revenues in this edition of GERS by comparing the estimates contained in this report with last year’s publication. Revenue has been revised down in 2024-25, reflecting revisions to Scottish share, with Scotland’s share of North Sea corporation tax revised down 80%.
Revisions to Expenditure Estimates from GERS 2024-25 (Table B4, B5)
Table B.4 sets out the changes in estimates of public expenditure in Scotland and the UK between this report and GERS 2024-25. These reflect revisions to Scottish Government and Scottish local government spending data, revisions to UK spending totals, and revisions to the data sources used to apportion expenditure to Scotland. Revisions to public expenditure that can be traced to changes to the total expenditure on services (TES) measure are specified separately.
Overall, Scottish spend in 2024-25 has been revised up by £323 million, or 0.3%. This reflects upward revisions to spending on Education and Training and General Public Services being offset by down revisions to social protection and housing and community amenities. The revisions to education spending are related to Scottish local government spend and reflect the move from provisional to final outturn.
The downward revisions to social protection reflect internal estimates Other UK Government spending in these areas have been replaced by estimates from HM Treasury’s CRA publication.
Revisions to Estimates of Capital Consumption (Table B6)
Table B.6 sets out the changes to estimates of capital consumption in Scotland and the UK between this report and the previous publication of GERS. Capital consumption, which represents the capital stock consumed to provide services within the year, is included alongside current expenditure when calculating the current budget balance. It does not affect the estimate of the net fiscal balance. Note that these figures do not match the figures for capital consumption shown in Table A.8, as the table below includes capital consumption associated with public corporations, which is not included in accounting adjustments.
Unlike for public corporations’ expenditure and operating surplus, detailed capital consumption data are not available on a public corporation basis from the ONS, as they are not separately identified within its perpetual inventory model.
Revision to Fiscal aggregates (Tables B7, B8)
Table B.7 shows revisions to the current budget balance from the previous publication of GERS. The Scottish current budget deficit has increased in all years. This reflects the revisions to public sector interest expenditure discussed above.
Table B.8 shows revisions to the net fiscal balance from the previous publication of GERS. In general, these are similar to the revisions to the current budget balance for Scotland.
In addition to revisions to the fiscal aggregates in cash terms, there are also changes to the fiscal aggregates expressed as a share of GDP due to revisions to GDP estimates. These are shown in Tables B.9 and B.10 for the current budget balance and the net fiscal balance respectively. In general, estimates of the fiscal aggregate have improved as a share of GDP for Scotland when including the North Sea, but remained the same when the North Sea is excluded. These revisions reflect the upward revision to the nominal value of offshore GDP. This reflects routine annual update to bring the value of GVA in line with the latest UK regional accounts.
Timeliness
Government Expenditure and Revenue statistics are published 5 months after the financial year end. The publication month is normally announced around one month prior to publication.
Accessibility
Our recommended format for accessible content is a combination of HTML web pages for narrative, charts, and graphs, with data being provided in Excel format. Our website also offers users the option to download the narrative in PDF format. In some instances, other software may be used or may be available on request. For further information, please refer to the contact details at the beginning of this report.
Relevance
(the degree to which statistics meet the current and potential needs of users.)
We held consultations in 2016 to gather information about the requirements of users and feedback on the 2015-16 publication.
[ARCHIVED CONTENT] GERS Consultation 2016
It was a result feedback from this user survey which has determined the current publication schedule.
Coherence
There are other UK and Scottish Government publications which cover similar subject matter. Some of which are used to produce GERS.
ONS Country and Regional Public Sector Finances
Country and regional public sector finances, UK - Office for National Statistics
HMT Country and Regional Analysis (CRA)
Country and regional analysis: 2025 - GOV.UK
SG Consolidated Accounts
The Scottish Government Consolidated Accounts for the year ended 31 March 2025 - gov.scot
SG Budget
Table A.10 of the online tables provides a reconciliation with Scottish Government Spending Statistics.
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot