GDP Quarterly National Accounts: 2025 Quarter 2 (April to June)

GDP growth in volume terms

Headline GDP figures

Scotland’s onshore GDP (i.e. excluding offshore oil and gas) is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in real terms during 2025 quarter 2 (April to June). This is unrevised from the first estimate published on 27 August.

The statistics have been open to revision in all quarters back to the start of 2023 and have taken on new and updated input data for a number of subseries. While there is little change to the general trend in GDP growth over the last two and half years, the results for individual quarters have been revised, as shown in Figure 1. Over the last year, growth in 2025 quarter 1 (January to March) has been revised up to 0.5%, growth in 2024 quarter 4 (October to December) has been revised down to 0.0%, and growth in 2024 quarter 3 (July to September) has been revised up to 0.4%. Further information on the revisions can be found in the revisions section of the publication.

Figure 1: Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in 2025 quarter 2, unrevised from the first estimate publication.

Percentage change, quarter on quarter growth rates, 2023 Quarter 2 to 2025 Quarter 2

Real annual GDP is now estimated to have grown by a downwardly revised 1.0% in 2024 and an unrevised 0.5% in 2023.

We also produce estimates of GDP per head (or per capita) which divides Scotland’s GDP by the total population. This is often used as a proxy indicator for living standards.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have had zero growth during 2025 quarter 2, unrevised from the first estimate. Annual real GDP per head is now estimated to have grown by 0.1% in 2024, revised down from 0.3% in the first estimate.

Taken over the last 12 months, compared 2024 quarter 2, Scotland’s GDP has grown by 1.0% in total, and by 0.4% per person. Meanwhile, in current prices (or nominal terms), without adjusting for inflation, the value of onshore GDP has increased by 4.4% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator is the broadest estimate of inflation in the domestic economy and is calculated by dividing nominal GDP by real GDP. The GDP deflator covers the whole economy and not just consumer spending and also reflects the relative price of exports to imports. Compared to the same quarter a year ago, the implied GDP deflator has increased by 3.3%.

Output growth by industry groups

In 2025 quarter 2, output in the services sector grew by 0.5%, revised down from 0.6% in the first estimate. Output grew in eight of the fourteen subsectors and fell in six. The largest positive contributions to growth in the latest quarter were from professional, scientific and technical services (+2.6% growth) and accommodation and food services ( +3.7% growth), with the largest negative contributions to growth in information and communication (-2.4% growth) and other services (-4.6% growth). 

Output in the production sector fell by 1.9% in the latest quarter, revised up from the first estimate of a 2.3% fall. The largest negative contributions to the contraction in the latest quarter was from manufacturing (-2.4% growth), offset by a growth of mining and quarrying (+1.9% growth). Within manufacturing, the largest negative contribution was from manufacturing of chemical, pharmaceutical and refined petroleum products (-10.8%), followed by food, beverages and tobacco (-1.8%). The only positive contributions within manufacturing came from computer and electrical equipment (+1.0%) and transport equipment (+2.5%).

Output in the construction sector is estimated to have grown by 1.0% in the latest quarter, revised down from 1.2% growth in first estimate.

Figure 2: In 2025 quarter 2, the largest positive contributions to growth came from within the services sector, while the largest negative contribution came from manufacturing

Weighted contributions to the headline quarterly growth rate of 0.2% by industry section (SIC 2007)

The weighted industry contributions to percentage change relate to how much a particular industry adds to the overall output growth of Scotland within a time period. This accounts for the size of the industry, defined by it’s share of the total economy, as well its growth rate. The growth rate of an industry is the percentage change within a specific industry, within that time period.

The downloadable GDP in volume terms tables include more detailed breakdowns of the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as estimates of GDP per head and annual GDP growth back to 1963.

Estimates of GDP growth in volume terms based on the expenditure approach to GDP (consumption, government expenditure, investment and trade) are also available in the downloadable summary tables. These figures are currently designated as official statistics in development and are not processed with the same level of quality assurance as the industry statistics. The expenditure components are principally published for use by analysts, for example as inputs to economic forecasts.

The Monthly GDP estimates give a more detailed indication of the trends for each industry sector, and include results up to August 2025 at the time of release.