Findings

We estimate that from October to December 2026 there would be around 820,000 fuel poor households in Scotland – 32% of all households. This is an increase of around 20,000 households from estimates for July to September 2026.

Furthermore, from October to December 2026 we estimate that 53% of all fuel poor households would be in extreme fuel poverty. This means that around 440,000 households would be in extreme fuel poverty (17% of all households).

This is an increase of around 20,000 households in extreme fuel poverty compared to estimates for July to September 2026.

These estimates are summarised in the figures below.

Figure 1: Fuel poverty timeseries from October 2022[1].

Note: The price cap figures from October 2026 reflect TDCV's of 9,500 kWh Gas and 2,500 kWh Electricity annually for a typical dual fuel household. Figures from October 2023 reflect TDCV's of 11,500 kWh Gas and 2,700 kWh Electricity while previous price cap figures are based on 12,000 kWh Gas and 2,900 kWh Electricity.

Figure 2: Extreme Fuel Poverty time series from October 2022

Note: The price cap figures from October 2026 reflect TDCV's of 9,500 kWh Gas and 2,500 kWh Electricity annually for a typical dual fuel household. Figures from October 2023 reflect TDCV's of 11,500 kWh Gas and 2,700 kWh Electricity while previous price cap figures are based on 12,000 kWh Gas and 2,900 kWh Electricity.

In addition to the national estimates presented in Figure 1 and Figure 2, there will be interest in how fuel poverty rates and levels vary by household tenure.

From October to December 2026, we estimate that 39% of households in the private rented sector will be in fuel poverty and 55% of households in the social rented sector will be in fuel poverty.

This is an increase of around 1 percentage point for those in the social sector compared to the July to September 2026 price cap period while the figure remains stable for those in the private rented sector. From October to December 2026, we estimate that 22% of owner-occupied households will be in fuel poverty, a 1 percentage point increase compared to July to September 2026 levels.

Tables 2 to 9 in Annex A summarise our estimates of fuel poverty and extreme fuel poverty rates and levels by urban/rural classification and household tenure and show how these have changed over time.