Publication - Statistics

Fuel Poverty Scenario Modelling based on Ofgem Energy Price Caps – up to October to December 2026

Published: 2 September 2026

Fuel Poverty Scenario Modelling based on Ofgem Energy Price Caps

Part of

Scottish House Condition Survey: key findings and analysis

Supporting documents

Annex A

Table 2: Fuel poverty levels (000s) by rural urban classification

Urban/Rural Classification	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	2024 SHCS	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26	Apr to Jun 26	Jul to Sep 26	Oct to Dec 26
Large urban areas	272	317	295	290	300	280	290	270	260	300	300
Other urban areas	246	300	224	240	250	230	240	220	220	250	260
Accessible small towns	88	69	57	60	60	60	60	60	60	70	70
Remote small towns	27	29	34	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Urban Subtotal	633	715	610	630	650	620	630	590	570	660	670
Accessible rural	84	85	65	60	70	60	70	60	60	70	70
Remote rural	63	61	57	60	60	60	60	60	60	70	70
Rural Subtotal	147	146	122	130	130	130	130	120	110	140	140
All	791	859	732	750	780	750	760	710	680	800	820

Table 3: Fuel poverty rates by rural urban classification

Urban/Rural Classification	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	2024 SHCS	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26	Apr to Jun 26	Jul to Sep 26	Oct to Dec 26
Large urban areas	31	33	31	32	33	31	32	30	28	33	33
Other urban areas	28	35	26	27	29	27	28	26	25	29	30
Accessible small towns	34	32	26	27	28	27	27	26	25	28	29
Remote small towns	34	41	47	46	48	46	47	44	43	49	48
Urban Subtotal	30	34	29	30	31	30	30	28	27	31	32
Accessible rural	30	31	22	22	22	22	22	21	19	24	25
Remote rural	47	44	38	40	39	39	40	39	37	42	42
Rural Subtotal	47	35	28	28	28	28	28	27	25	31	31
All	31.0	33.9	28.7	30	31	29	30	28	27	31	32

Table 4: Extreme fuel poverty levels (000's) by rural urban classification

Urban/Rural Classification	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	2024 SHCS	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26	Apr to Jun 26	Jul to Sep 26	Oct to Dec 26
Large urban areas	142	173	131	130	140	130	130	120	110	140	160
Other urban areas	140	160	101	110	120	110	120	110	90	120	120
Accessible small towns	61	40	29	30	40	30	30	30	30	40	40
Remote small towns	17	15	19	20	30	20	20	20	20	30	30
Urban Subtotal	361	389	280	300	330	290	300	280	250	330	350
Accessible rural	54	61	42	40	40	40	40	30	30	40	40
Remote rural	50	41	35	40	40	40	40	40	40	50	40
Rural Subtotal	104	103	77	80	80	80	80	70	70	90	90
All	465	491	357	370	400	370	380	350	320	420	440

Table 5: Extreme fuel poverty rates by rural urban classification

Urban/Rural Classification	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	2024 SHCS	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26	Apr to Jun 26	Jul to Sep 26	Oct to Dec 26
Large urban areas	16	18	14	14	16	14	14	13	12	16	17
Other urban areas	16	19	12	13	14	13	13	12	11	14	14
Accessible small towns	25	19	13	13	16	13	13	13	11	16	18
Remote small towns	23	21	27	27	30	26	27	25	24	29	31
Urban Subtotal	17	18	13	14	16	14	14	13	12	16	17
Accessible rural	20	23	14	13	13	13	13	12	10	14	14
Remote rural	35	30	24	24	25	24	24	24	24	32	27
Rural Subtotal	25	25	17	17	17	17	17	16	15	20	19
All	18.5	19.4	14.0	15	16	14	15	14	12	16	17

Table 6: Fuel poverty levels (000s) by household tenure

Tenure	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	2024 SHCS	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26	Apr to Jun 26	Jul to Sep 26	Oct to Dec 26
Owned outright	278	241	234	240	240	240	240	230	220	250	260
Mortgaged	89	94	98	100	110	100	110	90	80	110	120
Owner Occupied Subtotal	367	336	333	340	350	340	340	320	300	360	380
LA	175	228	184	190	200	190	190	180	180	200	200
HA	114	165	115	120	120	120	120	120	110	130	130
Social Rented Subtotal	289	393	298	310	320	310	320	300	280	330	330
Private Rented	124	132	101	100	110	100	100	100	100	110	110
All	791	859	732	750	780	750	760	710	680	800	820

Table 7: Fuel poverty rates by household tenure

Tenure	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	2024 SHCS	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26	Apr to Jun 26	Jul to Sep 26	Oct to Dec 26
Owned outright	28	25	23	24	24	24	24	23	22	25	25
Mortgaged	14	15	15	15	17	15	16	14	13	17	18
Owner Occupied Subtotal	22	21	21	20	21	20	21	19	18	22	22
LA	48	61	52	55	57	54	55	52	51	57	57
HA	47	60	45	47	48	46	47	45	42	49	51
Social Rented Subtotal	48	61	49	52	53	50	52	49	47	54	55
Private Rented	44	44	37	37	38	37	38	36	35	39	39
All	31.0	33.9	28.7	30	31	29	30	28	27	31	32

Table 8: Extreme fuel poverty levels (000’s) by household tenure

Tenure	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	2024 SHCS	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26	Apr to Jun 26	Jul to Sep 26	Oct to Dec 26
Owned outright	190	169	127	130	140	130	130	120	110	150	160
Mortgaged	44	42	33	30	40	30	30	30	30	40	40
Owner Occupied Subtotal	234	211	161	160	180	160	160	150	140	190	200
LA	92	123	89	100	100	90	100	90	70	100	110
HA	66	82	48	50	50	50	50	50	50	50	60
Social Rented Subtotal	157	205	137	150	160	140	150	140	120	160	170
Private Rented	74	75	60	60	70	60	60	60	60	70	70
All	465	491	357	370	400	370	380	350	320	420	440

Table 9: Extreme fuel poverty rates by household tenure

Tenure	2022 SHCS	2023 SHCS	2024 SHCS	Jan to Mar 25	Apr to Jun 25	Jul to Sep 25	Oct to Dec 25	Jan to Mar 26	Apr to Jun 26	Jul to Sep 26	Oct to Dec 26
Owned outright	19	18	13	13	14	13	13	12	11	15	16
Mortgaged	7	7	5	5	6	5	5	5	4	6	6
Owner Occupied Subtotal	14	13	10	10	11	10	10	9	9	11	12
LA	25	33	25	28	30	27	28	25	21	30	32
HA	27	30	19	20	21	19	21	19	18	21	22
Social Rented Subtotal	26	32	22	25	26	23	25	23	20	26	28
Private Rented	26	25	22	23	24	23	23	23	21	25	25
All	18.5	19.4	14.0	15	16	14	15	14	12	16	17

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