Fuel Poverty Scenario Modelling based on Ofgem Energy Price Caps - up to April to June 2026
Methodology
In order to model estimated fuel poverty rates under the upcoming April to June 2026 price cap we have applied the announced unit price, and where applicable standing charge, by fuel, to each households modelled energy consumption in order to meet their statutory fuel poverty heating regime[1].
For single meter electricity and mains gas these are the published per kwh price[2] and standing charges published for the April to June 2026 price cap.
For households with dual metered electricity (i.e Economy 7 meters) the day and night (high and low) per kwh rates were uprated by a scaling factor equal to the difference between the DESNZ average index price of electricity for 2023 and the most recent DESZN index price (November 2025). This is because the SHCS uses both day and night (high and low) per kwh prices as well as Kwh consumption to model fuel bills for households using multi-register tariffs such as Economy 7. However, although electricity for multi register meters is covered by the Ofgem price cap, they do not publish high and low price figures.
Similarly for other fuels which are not covered by the price cap we have scaled the per unit price, and any applicable standing charges, by the difference between the average DESNZ index price in 2024 and the most recent DESZN index price[3] (January 2026)[4].
These updated unit prices, and announced April to June 2026 standing charges, were then applied to the modelled energy use of households in the achieved sample for the 2024 SHCS to produce update fuel bills which were then applied to the fuel poverty calculation.
[1] Fuel poverty statistics are based on heating regimes are set using the Fuel Poverty (Enhanced Heating) (Scotland) Regulations 2020, which specifies the households for which enhanced heating temperatures and/or hours are appropriate.
[2] Unit rates and standing charges were set by North or South Scotland and the presence of prepayment meter. See appendix A for a list of unit rates used.
[3] LPG prices come from CPIH INDEX 04.5.2.2 Liquefied hydrocarbons Office for National Statistics
[4] For a full list of scaling factors used see appendix A.