Fuel Poverty Scenario Modelling based on Ofgem Energy Price Caps - up to April to June 2026

Findings

We estimate that from April to June 2026 there will be around 680,000 fuel poor households in Scotland – 27% of all households. This is a decrease of around 30,000 households from estimates for January to March 2026.

Furthermore, from April to June 2026 we estimate that 47% of all fuel poor households will be in extreme fuel poverty. This means that around 320,000 households will be in extreme fuel poverty – 12% of all households.

This is a decrease of around 30,000 households in extreme fuel poverty compared to estimates for January to March 2026.

These estimates are summarised in the figures below.

Figure 1: Fuel poverty timeseries from October 2022[1].

Figure 2: Extreme Fuel Poverty time series from October 2022

In addition to the national estimates presented in Figure 1 and Figure 2, there will be interest in how fuel poverty rates and levels vary by household tenure.

From April to June 2026, we estimate that 35% of households in the private rented sector will be in fuel poverty and 47% of households in the social rented sector will be in fuel poverty.

This is a decrease of around 2 percentage points for households in the social sector and 1 percentage point for those in the private rented sector compared to the January to March 2026 price cap period. From, April to June 2026 we estimate that 18% of owner-occupied households will be in fuel poverty, a 1 percentage point decrease compared to January to March 2026 levels.

Tables 3 to 10 in Annex A summarise our estimates of fuel poverty and extreme fuel poverty rates and levels by urban/rural classification and household tenure and show how these have changed over time.