Fuel Poverty Scenario Modelling based on Ofgem Energy Price Caps - up to April to June 2026
Introduction
Official statistics for fuel poverty in Scotland are produced annually through the Scottish Household Condition Survey. However, since the survey is carried out on an annual basis, and due to high energy prices, there is interest in how changes to Ofgem energy price caps for gas and electricity have affected the fuel poverty rate in between the surveys. To ascertain this, scenario modelling was undertaken using the achieved sample from the 2024 Scottish House Condition Survey (SHCS) to model fuel poverty rates under the Ofgem energy price cap.
This modelling has been based on the underlying data from the 2024 Scottish House Condition Survey (SHCS). We have not accounted for any other changes in household income, housing costs or the energy efficiency of dwellings since the 2024 survey. Therefore, this analysis should be seen as a scenario in which fuel prices in 2024 reflected current prices in order to give a broad indication of current fuel poverty rates.
The Ofgem energy price cap sets the maximum unit price per Kwh and the maximum daily standing charge energy suppliers can charge consumers for gas and electricity[1]. This varies by energy supply region, payment method and type of electric meter (e.g. standard or economy 7)[2]. Table 1 shows how GB averages of these have varied over time.
Note: The weighted average prices for 2022 and 2023 reflect rates paid by households under the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) and not the price cap at the time.
Although prices are set at the unit and standing rate level the price cap is communicated to consumers through Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs)[3]. Table 2 shows the TDCVs for previous price cap periods, however, Ofgem introduced new TDCVs from October 2023, on which the headline price caps are now reported.
Therefore, for clarity Table 2 shows actual Ofgem energy price cap (bolded entries), along with equivalent price caps based on the old and new TDCVs.
|
Period |
Price cap (£) based on the new TDCVs |
Price cap (£) based on the previous TDCVs |
|---|---|---|
|
2019 (weighted average) |
1,115 |
1,170 |
|
2022 (weighted average) |
1,837 |
1,930 |
|
2023 (weighted average) |
2,202 |
2,249 |
|
2024 (weighted average |
1,725 |
1,807 |
|
Jan to Mar 2025 |
1,738 |
1,819 |
|
Apr to Jun 2025 |
1,849 |
1,938 |
|
Jul to Sept 2025 |
1,720 |
1,803 |
|
Oct to Dec 2025 |
1,755 |
1,839 |
|
Jan to Mar 2026 |
1,758 |
1,843 |
|
April to June 2026 |
1,641 |
1,719 |
The measurement of fuel poverty includes calculating the amount of energy that households require to heat their homes to meet the heating regimes set out in the fuel poverty legislation. Therefore, this will largely not be affected by changes in Ofgem TDCVs, as the fuel poverty definition is based on how much energy is required and not on how much is used.
[1] Price cap charges are inclusive of all costs associated with energy bills such as the £28 fee levied to recover debt owed to suppliers and not just the cost of energy. For a full list of these charges see Energy price cap | Ofgem
[2] Table 11 in Annex B shows these rates for Northern and Southern Scotland.
[3] TDCV’s are industry standard values for the annual gas and electricity usage of a typical domestic consumer.
[4] Prior to October 2023 the TDCV used was 12,000 KWH gas and 2,900 KWH electricity for the typical dual fuel household. From October 2023 this was reduced and the new TDCV is 11,500 KWH gas and 2,700 KWH electricity for the typical dual fuel household. Decision for Typical Domestic Consumption Values 2023 | Ofgem