Forecasts of Tax Revenues, Block Grant Adjustments, Net Position and policy costings

1. Forecasts of Tax Revenues, Block Grant Adjustments, Net Positions and Policy Costings

This document sets out forecasts of revenues, Block Grant Adjustments (BGAs), and net positions for those taxes which have a corresponding BGA under the Fiscal Framework (as of the Scottish Budget 2026-27, published on 13 January 2026^[1]). Those taxes currently include: Income Tax, Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT), and Scottish Landfill Tax (SLfT). The Scottish Aggregates Tax (SAT) is due to be introduced on 01 April 2026, replacing the UK Aggregates Levy in Scotland. Forecasts for SAT are included in the tables below from that point.^[2]

The operation of the Fiscal Framework was summarised in section 2.2.2 of the Scottish Government’s Medium-Term Financial Strategy, published in June 2025^[3]. More detail on how the Fiscal Framework operates is included in the Scottish Government’s Fiscal Factsheet^[4], including a technical note which outlines the BGA and reconciliation process. The Fiscal Framework Data Annex^[5] sets out tax revenue and social security expenditure forecasts, BGAs, and net positions at each fiscal event, as well as outturn and reconciliations.