Forecasts of Tax Revenues, Block Grant Adjustments, Net Position and policy costings

2. Operation of the Fiscal Framework

Table 1 sets out the most recent forecasts for revenues, BGAs, and the net position for each tax. Further detail of the independent forecasts made by the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) for the Scottish Budget 2026-27 are set out in Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecast, published by the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC) on the same day as the Scottish Budget^[6].

Forecasts of devolved tax revenue are produced by the SFC, and are influenced by Scottish tax policy and the growth and composition of the Scottish tax base. The BGAs are calculated based on the forecast growth in equivalent tax revenues in the rest of the UK, on a per person basis. They are based on forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), and are driven by UK Government tax policy, population growth, and the growth and composition of the tax base in the rest of the UK.

The net tax position is the difference between devolved tax revenue and the BGAs. This represents the spending power available to the Scottish Government as a result of tax devolution. In general, it will improve when tax revenue grows faster, on a per person basis, in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, or vice versa.

Figures may not sum because of rounding.