Income tax rates and thresholds modelling query: FOI release

Information requested

Based on this document, published as part of the budget process: Introduction - Scottish Budget 2026 to 2027: Scottish tax ready reckoners - gov.scot

That includes in-house modelling for various changes to income tax rates and thresholds. I was wondering if any other changes had been modelled? For example the only direct tax cut included in the rate changes is a cut to the top rate - were any other rate cuts calculated? So in a nutshell I'm asking for all of the different income tax changes modelled by Scottish Government analysts in advance of the budget.

Response

The ready reckoners document includes a table for Income Tax rate changes and the footnote explains that the impacts of Income Tax increases and decreases are broadly symmetric (see Table 1). This means ready reckoners for a 1p increase in any tax rate will raise broadly the same amount as a 1p decrease in that same tax rate would cost. The ready reckoners provided in the publication can therefore be used to cost decreases in tax rates. As can be seen in Table 1, the Top rate is an exception to this so the Top rate increase and decrease ready reckoners are reported separately - although changes in the Top rate are more uncertain due to likely stronger behavioural responses at this level.

The ready reckoners in Table 1 provide an order of magnitude of how much revenue could be raised, or foregone, over and above the policies announced for 2026-27. They can also be used to show the additional revenue raised (or foregone) from individual components as well as any combination of these.

While our aim is to provide information whenever possible, in this instance we are unable to provide some of the information you have requested because an exemption under section 30(b)(i) of FOISA applies to that information. Section 30(b)(i) applies to the free and frank provision of advice where disclosure would, or would be likely to, inhibit substantially the free and frank provision of views.

This exemption is subject to the 'public interest test'. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exemption. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exemption. We recognise that there is some public interest in release because of the interest in open and transparent Government. However, this is outweighed by the public interest in ensuring officials and ministers are able to consider advice before reaching a settled public view.

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