Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy: FOI release

Information requested

"The economic impact survey the First Minister made reference to in her Covid briefing yesterday 18/11/2020. She stated that “the impact to the economy of letting Covid run unchecked would be greater than the impact these lockdowns are having”. To make such a factual claim the First Minister must have done a full and detailed model and costings analysis. I request the detailed information and analysis used by the First Minister to allow her to make a statement of such magnitude."

Response

Some of the information you have requested is available from the Scottish Government website.

The Scottish Government set out its assessment framework in the publication COVID-19: Framework for Decision Making. This notes that the first objective and absolute necessity is to contain and suppress the virus. Beyond that, the challenge is to minimise broader harm to our health, society and economy and to restore as much normality to everyday life as possible.

The Scottish Government has published further detail on assessing the four harms of the crisis in the publication COVID-19: Framework for Decision making Assessing the four harms of the crisis. The Scottish Government’s approach is to suppress the virus to a very low level (the first harm) while seeking to minimise
these broader harms.

The Scottish Government publishes regular reports and analysis on the economic impact of the crisis and of lockdown. These include regular State of the Economy reports and Monthly Economic Briefs and are available on the Scottish Government website.

Under section 25(1) of FOISA, we do not have to give you information which is already reasonably accessible to you. If, however, you do not have internet access to obtain this information from the website(s) listed, then please contact me again and I will send you a paper copy.

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