Government Expenditure and Revenue in Scotland (GERS) in relation to tobacco duties: FOI release

Information requested

You asked for: GERS 2020 uses a figure of £9.692 billion tobacco revenues UK 2019-20, which conflict's with HMRC figure of £8.803 billion.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/910224/Jul20_Receipts_NS_Table_Published_.ods

I note Table A.5 Confidence intervals around survey based apportionments: Scotland Tobacco duties Range +/-21 Range(%) +/-1.7% I find it unbelievable that GERS allocated a share of tobacco revenue 56% higher than Scotland's population share! The figures as allocated to Scotland in GERS point to a revenue ratio of for every £1 tobacco duty in Scotland (with 8% of UK population) .rUK raises £7 (based on population ration it would be £11)

FOI request: When is it intended to recalculate and republish GERS 2020 with corrected figures updated in ALL corresponding tables?

Response

GERS estimates of tobacco duties are consistent with the ONS Public Sector Finances. This shows total UK tobacco duties of £9,692 million in 2019-20.

This is published at the link below:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/datasets/appendixdpublicsectorcurrentreceipts

Note that both HMRC and ONS data on tobacco duty are provisional, and liable to change. They are also reported using different accounting bases.

Scotland’s share of this averages 12%, amounting to £ 1,240, based on data from the Living Costs and Food Survey, also supplied by ONS. As set out in Chapter 1 of GERS, this is higher than a population share, reflecting the higher prevalence smoking in Scotland.

Further information on this is available in the ONS publication Adult Smoking Habits in the UK:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/

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