GDP first quarterly estimate 2023 Q4 (October to December)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics measure the output of the economy in Scotland. The GDP first quarterly estimate is an accredited national statistics publication for Scotland.

Key Points

  • Scotland’s GDP fell by 0.6% in real terms during the fourth quarter of 2023. Over the same period, GDP in the UK as a whole fell by 0.3%.
  • In the fourth quarter of 2023 services output fell by 0.1%, while production output fell by 3.0% with the fall of 3.7% in manufacturing output making the largest contribution to the overall result.
  • Compared to the same quarter last year, Scotland’s GDP fell by 0.3%. Over the same period, the UK as a whole fell by 0.2%.
  • Over 2023 as a whole Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.2% compared to 2022. Equivalent UK growth was 0.1%.



What is in the first quarterly estimate of GDP?

The first quarterly estimate of GDP covers the output approach to GDP and reports on:

  • Real terms – results have been seasonally adjusted and had the effect of price changes removed to allow for meaningful comparisons over time
  • Onshore economy – figures do not include the output of offshore oil and gas extraction (which is included in the headline UK figures)
  • Revisions – There are no revisions to previous quarters in this release. The GDP Quarterly National Accounts, published on 1 May 2024, will include an updated second estimate of GDP for 2023 Q4 and revisions to previous quarters. 


If you have any enquiries relating to Economy Statistics then please contact us at:


Office of the Chief Economic Advisor: Economic Analysis
Room 4WR
St Andrews House
Regent Road

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