Fair Work action plan: progress report September 2024 - April 2025

7. Headline action: Monitoring and Evaluation

The delivery of the Action Plan needs to be supported by a wide range of evidence to ensure that we are responding effectively to the current context and how it will change as the economy and the labour market outcomes evolve over time. We are also keen to draw lessons from other comparable countries to guide our ambition for a leading fair work nation, and to understand what works across the different dimensions of Fair Work.

7.1 Update on the ONS Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey

The indicators contained within the Fair Work evidence plan draw primarily from official sources. In particular, the Annual Population Survey (APS) produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

ONS recently conducted analysis to assess the impact of falling sample sizes over recent years on the quality of Annual Population Survey (APS) estimates. ONS state that although the APS estimates are robust at National and headline regional level (which includes Scotland), there are concerns with the quality of estimates for smaller groups of the population e.g. minority ethnic groups^[1]. ONS are continuing to address the quality concerns by assessing the impact of the improvements made to the data collection and methodology on sample sizes and communicating how the data should be used. Alongside their monthly labour market statistics release in May 2025, ONS published an assessment of Labour Force Survey data quality.

Given the increased uncertainty in the APS estimates, the Chief Statistician for Scotland published a statement on the ONS Annual Population Survey in November 2024^[2]. This statement noted Scottish Government labour market analysts’ intention to conduct a detailed quality assessment of the APS data used within their publications to ensure their outputs continue to provide the best value and quality data possible for users. In April 2024, phase one of the Scottish Government’s Quality Assessment of the Office for National Statistics Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey data for Scotland was published. Annex 5 of this report provides a detailed Quality Assessment of the results for the Fair Work Convention Fair Work Indicators.

Going forward the most significant area of data development will arise from the ONS Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS). The TLFS is the long-term solution for providing high-quality and granular estimates of changes in the labour market. The survey is moving to being ‘online-first’, which will enable the ONS to increase the sample size, improve response rates and improve representativeness.

Since the last update to the Group, ONS have successfully tested an experimental, shortened transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) questionnaire and continuing to undertake quantitative and qualitative research and methodological development. A new TLFS design will be implemented and will include a short longitudinal “Core” labour market-focused survey as well as a separate cross-sectional “Plus” survey to provide wider socioeconomic, household, and local data. Work is already under way to make the new TLFS design operational, and ONS are currently intending to transition to TLFS as the main source of headline labour market statistics by November 2026. However, ONS state that “transition timing will be data-led and could be 2027 if our assessment or user needs require more data to be collected and assessed.” The Scottish Government will require further information from ONS on the outcome of this work to fully explore and understand the impact the TLFS will have on Scottish labour market data. Further detail on recent developments around the TLFS is available in ONS’s recent Labour market transformation – update on progress and plans - Office for National Statistics – April 2025.

7.2 Delivery Overview

• The Fair Work Evidence Plan was published in January 2024. This set out how the actions outlined in the Fair Work Action Plan would be evaluated and identified indicators for monitoring progress towards the Fair Work Action Plan outcomes. An update on the indicators aligned to the Action Plan’s four medium term outcomes was provided to FWOG in the papers of the December meeting. A further update will be provided alongside the Fair Work Annual Report.
• Scottish Government Labour Market statisticians also intend to publish the Fair Work measures available from the ONS APS as a standalone output. As outlined above, Scottish Government Labour Market Statisticians are currently undertaking a quality assessment of the ONS APS data for Scotland. Phase one of the assessment has been published, and labour market statisticians are now progressing with phase two which will focus on what options are available to improve on Labour Market Statistics for Scotland. The extent of the data that can be published will not be fully known until after these assessments have been completed.
• The Fair Work Evidence Plan identified areas where we would seek to build the evidence base to enable barriers to Fair Work to be identified and addressed through future policy development. During Summer 2024, evidence reviews on the contribution of unpaid care to the gender pay gap and international practice on supporting employment for disabled people were taken forward. The outputs from the evidence reviews are included as part of the papers for the June 2025 FWOG meeting.
• The evaluation of Fair Work First is in train and the tender for a supplier has now closed. The evaluation aims to assess Fair Work First implementation, impact on organisations and workers, and differences before and after conditionality, while identifying good practices and challenges such as organisational changes and barriers. The project will provide ample opportunities for stakeholder engagement.
• The evaluation of the Minority Ethnic Recruitment Toolkit was undertaken by Ipsos Mori and has now concluded. Officials are reviewing the findings to inform an updated version of the Toolkit that will be published by the end of the year. However, as a consequence of the emergency budget controls required in response to external pressures on the overall Scottish Budget, any other Fair Work-related evaluation activity will now be considered within future financial years’ activities as funding allows.