Pension triple lock changes impact: Deputy First Minister letter

To: Clare Haughey, Convener, Finance and Public Administration committee
From: Jenny Gilruth, Deputy First Minister and Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government 

30 September 2026

Dear Convener,

I wanted to bring to the Committee's attention the potential impact on Scotland’s pensioners of the Prime Minister's announcement on 29 September of planned changes to the State Pension Triple Lock from April 2030.

Given the importance of the State Pension to the incomes and financial security of many older people, and the significance of the proposed changes, I consider it important that the Scottish Parliament is made aware at the earliest opportunity of the potential implications for pensioners in Scotland. As such I will be making representations to the Chancellor on these proposals and make our concerns as plain and clear as is possible.

The UK Government has announced that, from April 2030, the Triple Lock will be replaced by a new method of uprating the State Pension. This represents a significant change to the current system, affecting more than 1 million pensioners in Scotland.

The UK Government's own analysis estimates that the change will reduce spending on the State Pension across the UK by around £15 billion per year by 2039-40, rising to around £50 billion per year by 2049-50 in cash terms.

Applying Scotland's projected share of the UK state pension age population to these figures from the UK Government suggests that Scottish pensioners could receive around £1.3 billion less in State Pension payments annually by 2039-40 than would be the case under the existing Triple Lock, rising to around £4.0 billion by 2049-50.

While responsibility for the State Pension is still reserved to the UK Government, these figures suggest that the policy change could have significant implications for pensioner incomes in Scotland over the longer term. The result would be a real terms impact on pensioner incomes of almost £2,000 per person annually by 2049-50.

Given the importance of the State Pension to many households, and the significant scale of the trailed cut, I consider it essential that the implications of this decision are fully understood – not least the impact on individuals' incomes and the loss of spending power in the economy.  Although decisions on State Pension policy are not devolved, the Scottish Government remains committed to supporting older people through measures such as Pension Age Winter Heating Payments, free prescriptions and concessionary travel, helping pensioners with the cost of living and supporting independent living.

Jenny Gilruth