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Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): the case for extending the Brexit transition period

Published: 3 Jun 2020
From:
Cabinet Secretary for the Constitution, Europe and External Affairs
Directorate:
External Affairs Directorate
Part of:
Business, industry and innovation, Communities and third sector, Constitution and democracy, +13 more … Economy, Education, Energy, Environment and climate change, Farming and rural, Health and social care, International, Law and order, Marine and fisheries, Public safety and emergencies, Public sector, Transport, Work and skills
ISBN:
9781839607981

This paper sets out why it is vital, if we are to ensure the most rapid recovery possible from the COVID-19 crisis, that the UK Government immediately seeks an extension to the Brexit transition period (scheduled to finish on 31 December 2020) for two years.

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Contents
Coronavirus (COVID-19): the case for extending the Brexit transition period
Annex A Results of Economic Modelling
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Annex A Results of Economic Modelling

The graphs in this annex represent the same data as in Graph 1 and Graph 2 in the main body of this document, but disaggregated according to the two different, illustrative, COVID-19-recovery scenarios.

Illustrative Scenarios of Possible Macroeconomic Paths of the Scottish Economy with a V-Shaped COVID-19 Recovery and a No-Deal-Brexit Outcome at the End of 2020 and at the End of 2022
Graph showing disaggregated data from Figures 1 and 2 of change in GDP (%) for A) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery – no Brexit, B) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery – no-trade deal Brexit end 2020, C) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery –no-trade deal Brexit end 2022
Illustrative Scenarios of Possible Macroeconomic Paths of the Scottish Economy with a V-Shaped COVID-19 Recovery and an FTA at the End of 2020 and at the End of 2022
Graph showing disaggregated data from Figures 1 and 2 of change in GDP (%) for A) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery – no Brexit, B) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery with FTA Brexit end 2020, C) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery with FTA Brexit end 2022
Illustrative Scenarios of Possible Macroeconomic Paths of the Scottish Economy with a W-Shaped COVID-19 Recovery and a No-Deal-Brexit Outcome at the End of 2020 and at the End of 2022
Graph showing disaggregated data from Figures 1 and 2 of change in GDP (%) for D) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – no Brexit, E) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – with no-trade deal Brexit end 2020, F) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – with no-trade deal Brexit end 2022
Illustrative Scenarios of Possible Macroeconomic Paths of the Scottish Economy with a W-Shaped COVID-19 Recovery and an FTA Brexit Outcome at the End of 2020 and at the End of 2022
Graph showing disaggregated data from Figures 1 and 2 of change in GDP (%) for D) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – no Brexit, E) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – with FTA Brexit end 2020, F) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – with FTA Brexit end 2022
Annex B - Examples of Difficulties for Businesses if the Transition Period Ends on 31 December 2020
Conclusions

Contact

Email: EUStrategy&Negotiations@gov.scot