Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): the case for extending the Brexit transition period

This paper sets out why it is vital, if we are to ensure the most rapid recovery possible from the COVID-19 crisis, that the UK Government immediately seeks an extension to the Brexit transition period (scheduled to finish on 31 December 2020) for two years.

61 page PDF

1.4 MB

61 page PDF

1.4 MB

Contents
Coronavirus (COVID-19): the case for extending the Brexit transition period
Annex A Results of Economic Modelling

61 page PDF

1.4 MB

Annex A Results of Economic Modelling

The graphs in this annex represent the same data as in Graph 1 and Graph 2 in the main body of this document, but disaggregated according to the two different, illustrative, COVID-19-recovery scenarios.

Illustrative Scenarios of Possible Macroeconomic Paths of the Scottish Economy with a V-Shaped COVID-19 Recovery and a No-Deal-Brexit Outcome at the End of 2020 and at the End of 2022
Graph showing disaggregated data from Figures 1 and 2 of change in GDP (%) for A) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery – no Brexit, B) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery – no-trade deal Brexit end 2020, C) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery –no-trade deal Brexit end 2022
Illustrative Scenarios of Possible Macroeconomic Paths of the Scottish Economy with a V-Shaped COVID-19 Recovery and an FTA at the End of 2020 and at the End of 2022
Graph showing disaggregated data from Figures 1 and 2 of change in GDP (%) for A) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery – no Brexit, B) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery with FTA Brexit end 2020, C) Temporary Demand Shock – V shape recovery with FTA Brexit end 2022
Illustrative Scenarios of Possible Macroeconomic Paths of the Scottish Economy with a W-Shaped COVID-19 Recovery and a No-Deal-Brexit Outcome at the End of 2020 and at the End of 2022
Graph showing disaggregated data from Figures 1 and 2 of change in GDP (%) for D) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – no Brexit, E) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – with no-trade deal Brexit end 2020, F) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – with no-trade deal Brexit end 2022
Illustrative Scenarios of Possible Macroeconomic Paths of the Scottish Economy with a W-Shaped COVID-19 Recovery and an FTA Brexit Outcome at the End of 2020 and at the End of 2022
Graph showing disaggregated data from Figures 1 and 2 of change in GDP (%) for D) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – no Brexit, E) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – with FTA Brexit end 2020, F) Cyclical Shocks with Damage to Productive Capacity – with FTA Brexit end 2022

Contact

Email: EUStrategy&Negotiations@gov.scot