Publication - Research and analysis

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 12 November 2021

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 12 November 2021
Footnotes

Footnotes

1. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

2. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

3. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
(week on week comparison may be affected by data flow issue.)

4. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

5. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

6. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID- 19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

7. Source: Public Health Scotland

8. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

9. Scottish Government: https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

10. Public Health Scotland dashboard: COVID-19 Daily Dashboard - PHS COVID-19 | Tableau Public.

11. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 statistical report

12. ibid

13. Public Health Scotland COVID-19 Statistical Report

14. ICU or combined ICU/HDU (with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days). Please note that only patients with length of stay 28 days or less in ICU were recorded until 20 January 2021. From 20 January 2021 ICU short and long stay includes both ICU or combined ICU/HDU with length of stay 28 days or less and with length of stay more than 28 days.

15. NRS Scotland: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland

16. ibid

17. Public Health Scotland COVID19 statistical report

18. ibid

19. Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/4november2021

20.Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/27october2021

21. Office for National Statistics:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/4november2021

22. UK Government: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

23. ibid

24. Public Health Scotland Covid dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

25. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

26. Public Health Scotland: PHS COVID-19 Education report (shinyapps.io)

27. Public Health Scotland

28. Office for National Statistics: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, antibody and vaccination data, UK - Office for National Statistics

29. Results are taken from questions run on behalf of Scottish Government on the YouGov online omnibus survey. The sample is demographically and geographically representative of adults 18+ across Scotland, with c. 1000 responses each week. Fieldwork took place on 2-3 November with a total sample size of 1002 adults. ‘Complete’ or ‘almost complete’ compliance refers to respondents who rated themselves 6 or 7 on a scale of 1-7 for the question: Thinking about ALL of the guidance on what to do and what not to do during the Coronavirus pandemic (including distancing, protection measures and all restrictions).On a scale of 1-7, where 1 is 'Not at all' and 7 is 'Completely', to what extent do you feel you are following the regulations and guidance?

30. Scottish Government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

31. The difference between the scenarios: ‘Central’ assumes that infections will rise or plateau at the current level, resulting from a small rise in transmission. ‘Worse’ assumes a larger rise in transmission from the current level. ‘Better’ assumes a small drop in transmission. All three scenarios account for the end of the half-term periods and COP 26 in Glasgow. Due to this, there is a large amount of uncertainty as to the potential impact on infections. All scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.

32. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

33. ibid

34. Public Health Scotland Covid-19 dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

35. Source: YouGov online survey. Total sample size on 2-3 November was 1002 adults. Sample size for those who have not yet received their first vaccine was 45 adults. ‘Likely’ to be vaccinated refers to respondents who rated themselves 8 to 10 on a scale of 0-10 for the question: How likely or unlikely are you to be vaccinated for COVID-19 when a vaccine becomes available to you? (Please select a number between 0 and 10, where 0 means 'extremely unlikely' and 10 means 'extremely likely')

36. S1236_Eighty-nineth_SAGE.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

37. Risk assessment for SARS-CoV-2 variant: VOC-21APR-02 (B.1.617.2) (publishing.service.gov.uk)

38. S1284_SAGE_92_minutes.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk)

39. Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

40. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variants (publishing.service.gov.uk)

41. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.351 - 27 January 2021 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

42. Brief note on SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern P.1 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

43. Variants: distribution of cases data - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

44. New studies — Nuffield Department of Medicine (ox.ac.uk)

45. COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 44 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

46. SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Scotland: demographics, risk of hospital admission, and vaccine effectiveness - The Lancet

47. Vaccines give protection against death from Delta | The University of Edinburgh

48. Research and analysis overview: VEEP: Vaccine effectiveness table, 24 September 2021 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

49. JCVI statement, September 2021: COVID-19 booster vaccine programme for winter 2021 to 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)


Contact

Email: modellingcoronavirus@gov.scot