Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic (issue no. 57)

Latest findings in modelling the COVID-19 epidemic in Scotland, both in terms of the spread of the disease through the population (epidemiological modelling) and of the demands it will place on the system, for example in terms of health care requirement.

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1. Particular care should be taken when interpreting this estimate as it is based on low numbers of cases, hospitalisations, or deaths and / or dominated by clustered outbreaks. It should not be treated as robust enough to inform policy decisions alone.

2. The cyan bars use Covid‑19 test data and purple bars use multiple sources of data. The estimates produced by the Scottish Government are the two on the left. (Yellow uses confirmed cases from PHS; green uses wastewater data).The SAGE consensus range is the right‑most (red).

3. Deaths, Cases and Hospitalisations from PHS COVID-19 daily cases in Scotland dashboard.

4. Vaccination and contact data for the 0-17 age cohort is not presented due to the vast majority of this age group not being offered vaccinations and the SCS excluding contacts between children.

5. Both scenarios are based on current vaccine roll-out plans and efficacy assumptions.

6. The actual positive tests are adjusted to coincide with the estimated day of infection.

7. Actual data does not include full numbers of CPAP. ICU bed actuals include all ICU patients being treated for Covid-19 including those over 28 days.

8. Numbers are included in Table 1 in the Technical Annex.

9. See Technical Annex in Issue 34 of these Research Findings for the methodology.

10. In both cases, we exclude an anomalous February reading from Seafield, Edinburgh – see issue 40 for details.

11. Please note that this work was undertaken prior to the most recent uptick in cases and is therefore likely to be an underestimate.



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