Publication - Advice and guidance

Climate Change Plan: monitoring report 2025

Published: 20 May 2025
Directorate: Energy and Climate Change Directorate
Topic: Environment and climate change
ISBN: 9781836914938

The fifth annual monitoring progress report on the Climate Change Plan update (CCPu) which updated the 2018 Climate Change Plan (CCP) and was finalised in March 2021. The report is a statutory requirement set out in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009.

Supporting documents

9. Chapter 8: NETs

9.1 Part A – Overview of sector

Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) are yet to be deployed in Scotland as they rely on carbon capture and storage (CCS) to deliver negative emissions. Whilst some technologies that could deliver negative emissions are currently deployed, such as energy from waste, these facilities would require retrofitting with carbon capture technology and a clear route to storage, to be considered a negative emissions technology.

The Climate Change Plan update (CCPu) includes policies and proposals for supporting and enabling early deployment from 2029 onwards. We currently do not track progress against the NETs envelope in the CCPu. In our last CCP (Climate Change Plan) Monitoring report, we committed to undertaking a feasibility study on NETs deployment in Scotland. This was published November 2023 and will help inform the development of our NETs policy going forward. The results of this study demonstrated the reliance of NETs deployment in Scotland on the UK Government’s policies regarding carbon capture, usage, and storage (CCUS) Cluster Sequencing, in particular on delivering the Scottish CCUS cluster at pace, as well as the possible benefits of including removals in the UK ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme).

The CCPu sets out the following policy outcomes for the sector. Given that this sector chapter appeared first in the CCPu (2020), there are no indicators for these outcomes. In the next CCP we will update the policy outcomes and include indicators to track progress against these updated outcomes.

Detailed feasibility study on NETs will assess the opportunities for negative emissions in Scotland, and identify applications with the greatest potential, including specific sites where possible.

CCUS: the continued development of CCUS technologies and systems is prioritised to ensure these can be rolled out commercially and at scale by the late 2020s.

Bioenergy: a cross-sectoral approach for the appropriate and sustainable use of biomass in energy applications is agreed and implemented (taking into account competing land and feedstock uses).

Just Transition and Cross Economy Impacts

We wish to understand and report on the broader just transition and cross-economy impacts of our emissions reduction activities in addition to these sector specific policy outcomes and indicators. To do this, in this report we use data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS): Low Carbon Renewable Energy Economy (LCREE) publication. The LCREE data presented in this report is based on survey data of businesses which perform economic activities that deliver goods and services that are likely to help generate lower emissions of greenhouse gases, for example low carbon electricity, low emission vehicles and low carbon services. The LCREE indicator is narrowly defined and, while useful within its limited scope, does not give us the full picture of the impacts on workforce, employers and communities and progress towards a just transition. Over the next year, we will work to develop a more meaningful set of success outcomes and indicators aimed at tracking the impacts of our policies on a just transition to net zero, which will inform our next CCP.

Sector commentary on progress

The CCPu included Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) as a sector chapter for the first time, recognising the important role that emissions removals will need to play in reaching net zero, as highlighted by the IPCC Working Group 3 report. The ‘learning by doing’ approach set out in the CCPu more widely was also identified as being particularly important in the case of this sector, given uncertainties around technological development and critical dependencies on UK Government action, particularly with regard to carbon capture and storage.Policies included in the NETs chapter recognised these challenges and uncertainties and sought to develop an evidence base to allow for further policy development. We have since undertaken an initial review of evidence.

The review indicated that NETs in Scotland can deliver at scale in due course but not at the pace assumed in the CCPu. This is due to shifts in some evidence and key policy decisions since the time of the CCPu, including:

The previous UK Government’s decision in October 2021 not to award the Acorn Project during the Track-1 phase has delayed the deployment timeline for the carbon capture and storage system required for NETs.
While the previous UK Government’s Powering Up Britain announcements on 30 March 2023 reconfirmed their commitment to four UK CCUS clusters by 2030, the current UK Government has confirmed that ‘ambition is no longer achievable’
Despite updates from the UK Government on Track-2 there is still no timeline for a final decision on the Acorn project.
It is important to note that no NETS projects were included in Track-1.
The availability of home-grown sustainable biomass to supply large scale power bioenergy with CCS (BECCS); and
No public commitment to date by a commercial operator to employ a NETs model for a single large power station in Scotland.

Given lead in times for development of such a facility and proposals for CCS deployment for the Peterhead Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) power project (which is subject to a live planning application), it is unlikely that a new NETs power facility will be developed within the next decade. We have since gained further knowledge and evidence of what scale of NETs can be delivered in Scotland and to what timescale, through undertaking a NETs feasibility study. The authors examined existing sites in Scotland which emit biogenic carbon and could deliver negative emissions if paired with CCS infrastructure, as well as biochar production. The study then explored the potential for new sites, including Direct Air Capture. To determine the feasible deployment of these technologies, the study modelled three pathways for NETs deployment, all of which assumed that the Acorn Project and Scottish Cluster would be able to permanently store CO2 by 2030. The pathways differed in the level of government action, such as policy supports, market design, or funding to support NETs.

This study estimated that the maximum Negative Emissions potential achievable in Scotland in 2030 is 2.2 MtCO2/year (60% of the available biogenic CO2 emissions), based on existing and future potential sites and given technical, economic, and other constraints. This is significantly lower than the stated NETs ambition in the CCPu of 5.7 MtCO2/year by 2032. With additional policy interventions from both the UK and Scottish Governments, the study suggests this figure could potentially reach 6.8 MtCO2/year by 2045 with technologies such as direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), bioenergy CCS (BECCS), energy from waste (EfW) and biomethane and distillery sites all playing a role.

As noted in the 2022 and 2023 monitoring reports, it is possible for NETs in Scotland to deliver at scale in due course, assuming that some of the obstacles for deployment are overcome – including high energy pricing, routes to commercialisation and access to storage.

Developments in Monitoring Arrangements Since Last Report:

No changes.

9.2 Part B – Progress to Policy Outcome Indicators

Policy Outcome: Cross-sectoral social and economic

Indicator: Full-time equivalent (FTE) employment in Low Carbon Renewable Energy Economy Indicator

On-Track Assessment (Milestones/Targets): Year to year change

Most Recent Data: 2022

Data Source(s): Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Estimates, Office of National Statistics

Assessment: Too early to say

Commentary:

In 2022, the Scottish low carbon renewable energy economy (LCREE) sectors were estimated to provide 25,700 FTE jobs.
The estimates of LCREE are based on a relatively small sample of businesses and hence are subject to a wide confidence interval.
Scottish LCREE employment in 2022 is lower than in 2021, but the difference is not statistically significant. Caution should be exercised when interpreting year on year changes due to a high degree of uncertainty in estimates.

The trend shows an decrease in employment in low carbon renewable energy sectors in 2022 in comparison to 2021 with an estimate of 25,700 FTE jobs. — Employment in Low Carbon Renewable Energy Economy, FTE

Source: Office of National Statistics (ONS) Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy Estimates

The estimates of LCREE are based on a relatively small sample of businesses and hence are subject to a wide confidence interval. Scottish LCREE employment in 2022 is above the average of previous years but the difference is not statistically significant.

9.3 Part C – Information Implementation of Individual Policies

Outcome 1: Detailed feasibility studies on NETs will assess the opportunities for negative emissions in Scotland, and identify applications with the greatest potential, including specific sites where possible.

Policy: In 2021-22 carry out a detailed feasibility study of opportunities for developing NETs in Scotland ready for the early 2030s. This will identify specific sites and applications of NETs, including developing work to support policy on Direct Air Capture and its role within NETs in our future energy system.

Date announced: CCPu

Progress on implementation since time of last report / CCPu: Studies to build our evidence on NETs and inform the scope of a detailed feasibility study have been commissioned and published within 2021-22. These outputs include research on bioenergy feedstock availability (Available here) and a horizon scan of international deployment of NETs (Available here). A detailed NETs feasibility study was published in November 2023, containing recommendations to government and proposed NETs implementation pathways. A study investigating the cost and profitability of DAC in Scotland will be published in April 2025.