Public sector strategic workforce position: child rights and wellbeing impact assessment

Child Rights and Wellbeing Impact Assessment Template

1. Brief Summary

Type of proposal:

Decision of a strategic nature relating to the rights and wellbeing of children

Name the proposal and describe its overall aims and intended purpose.

Public Sector Workforce Strategic Position

Spending on the public sector workforce in Scotland accounts for over half of the entire Scottish resource budget. It is important that we manage the size and shape of our public sector and the impact of pay rises in a way that reflects the value of our public services while ensuring we are being fiscally sustainable.

In Scotland, the public sector paybill is projected to reach around £29 billion, making up 55% of the total resource budget. Since lifting the pay cap in 2018, public sector workers in Scotland now earn on average £1,500 more than their UK counterparts, with some of the highest starting salaries for roles like teachers and police officers. Additionally, 22.3% of Scotland’s workforce is employed in the public sector, compared to 18.1% in the rest of the UK. The Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan (“FSDP”) outlines a long-term, cross-sector approach to improving public finances, aligned with the 2023 focus on priority-based spending.

As part of the Governments’ focus on efficiencies within the public sector, planning is underway for a managed downward trajectory for the devolved public sector workforce in Scotland (0.5 per cent reduction per annum on average over the next five years). This will be delivered as part of a shift in workforce plans and operating models because of service re-design, automation, process improvement, re-prioritisation, mergers, shrinking corporate functions from 2025-26 over the course of the next parliamentary term (2026 – 2031). Front-line services will remain protected.

In order to support this, the Scottish Government will focus on:

• Workforce Planning: Consulting and developing good practice workforce planning guidance for public bodies to follow over the Summer. This will include highlighting existing service demand, capability building and budget scenario planning, allowing for a more data-driven approach in the lead up to the Budget and Scottish Spending Review.
• Workforce Management Policy and Control framework: This will set the principles, parameters and metrics, governance and controls required to operationalise our approach to workforce management in public bodies, integrated with the Public Sector Pay Policy to underline the connection between these two drivers of public spending.
• Promoting best practice and guidance for existing Severance policy: Many public bodies implement their own voluntary severance scheme in order to re-shape their workforce. We will provide public bodies with some of the best practice principles of using such schemes.
• Redeployment: We will take forward, with public bodies, longer-term work to explore ways to optimise redeployment opportunities across the Scottish public sector.
• Improve Transparency of Workforce Information: Publication of key workforce statistics and trends in line with Audit Scotland recommendations, with the Pay and Workforce factsheet (published as part of the Medium Term Financial Strategy (“MTFS”) published alongside the FSDP [Fiscal sustainability delivery plan] ) as the first step in that process.

This is a high-level strategic workforce position covering the devolved public sector. Within this overall direction, some workforces may grow while others may reduce, but front-line services will be protected. The Workforce Management Policy will support public bodies and financial portfolios carry out more detailed CRWIA assessments on how workforce changes may affect their specific areas.

Start date of proposal’s development: March 2025

Start date of CRWIA process: May 2025

2. With reference given to the requirements of the UNCRC (Incorporation) (Scotland) Act 2024 (Annex 1), which aspects of the proposal are relevant to/impact upon children’s rights?

The workforce reduction target could impact children’s rights and wellbeing in terms of the UNCRC requirements (as incorporated into Scots law) in three main ways:

• Public bodies that offer modern apprenticeships are likely to have specific groups of workers who are young people.

1. Potential indirect impacts on the economic wellbeing of children of public sector workers whose employment may be at risk.

2. Impacts on children who are users of public services

Loss of employment (whether temporary or longer-lasting) could potentially impact on parents’/guardians’/carers’ ability to provide a standard of living for their child/ren which is adequate for the child/ren’s physical, mental, spiritual, moral and social development, linked to UNCRC Article 27 (right to a standard of living which is adequate for the child's physical, mental, spiritual, moral and social development (as incorporated).

Children are users of public services (e.g. healthcare services, education, early learning and childcare services, school meals, local authority-run services such as libraries, leisure centres etc.), which are connected to their ability to realise their UNCRC rights (as incorporated) under Articles 24 (right to enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of health and to access healthcare services), 28 (right to education) and 31 (right to (among other things) rest, leisure, and to engage in play and recreational activities).

Children looked after or under child protection orders, and young people who are care leavers are also particularly affected by public service provision in Children’s social care, which relate to their UNCRC rights (as incorporated) under Articles 19 (protection from violence, abuse and neglect while in the care of parents/guardians/other persons), 20 (rights of children unable to live with family) and 21 (adoption). Mothers under 20 are considerably more reliant on state benefits and tax credits than are older mothers^[1], making them and their children potentially disproportionally impacted by any changes in public service provision of social security, linked to UNCRC Article 26 (the right to benefit from social security, where appropriate, taking into account (among other factors) the child and their parents’/guardians’ resources and circumstances).

Finally - provision of early learning services links to UNCRC Article 18 (Parental responsibilities and state assistance, including ensuring the development of institutions, services and facilities for the care of children for the purpose of guaranteeing and promoting the rights under the UNCRC requirements) (as incorporated).

3. Please provide a summary of the evidence gathered which will be used to inform your decision-making and the content of the proposal

It is important to recognise that this is a high level strategic workforce position applying to the whole devolved public sector. Within this high level trajectory, some workforces may shrink in size and others may grow. Front-line services will be protected. We are developing an integrated Workforce Management Policy to be published alongside the existing Public Sector Pay Policy, to ensure that Public Bodies, and financial portfolios conduct more detailed CRWIA Impact assessments to assess how the workforce reductions in their own area may impact on children’s rights and wellbeing.

The following section considers the three channels through which children might be impacted, drawing from a wide range of evidence including Modern apprenticeship statistics, Annual Population Survey data, individual public body workforce equality and diversity statistics, Labour Force Survey data, and Scottish Government statistical publications on public service use. Further information and background statistics on the analysis can be found in the Annex of this publication.

Impacts on parents in the devolved public sector workforce

Summary: Parental employment helps to increase the economic resources of families with children and therefore the economic wellbeing of children. This positively impacts on their children’s right, under Article 27 (as incorporated), to a standard of living which is adequate for their physical, mental, spiritual, moral and social development. Changes to the public sector workforce could impact public sector workers who are parents or guardians of children under the age of 18, and therefore any children of those workers. In addition to potential impacts on all family types, women are overrepresented in the public sector workforce, most lone parents are women, and children of lone parents face economic disadvantages.

3. There are potential intersectional concerns for women in lone parent families, who may be economically impacted to a greater extent by a potential loss of employment than loss of employment than other family types with more than one potential earner. Two-parent families could also be at risk of economic hardship if the main income-earner becomes unemployed.

4. 92% of lone parent families are headed by women^[2]. Female workers are overrepresented in the public sector workforce. In Scotland 65.9% of the public sector workforce (both reserved and devolved) is female, compared to 51.1% of Scotland’s population aged 16 to 64 and 49.2 per cent of the economically active (16-64) population in Scotland^[3]. 88.9% of primary school teachers in Scotland are female. Of the female primary school teachers, 15.0% were 30-34, 13.8% were 25-29 and 14.4% were 35-39 year old.

5. There is no published data on the proportion of parents in the public sector specifically, but the intersection of sex and lone parent status indicates that changes to the public sector workforce could impact women who are lone parents and therefore the economic wellbeing of an economically disadvantaged group of children living in lone parent households. 4 in 10 children in poverty in Scotland live in a lone parent family and the gender pay gap is a key factor in that relative poverty^[4].

6. While 25% of children in Scotland live in poverty, the figure is much higher, 40%, for children in single parent families. A quarter of all the families with dependent children are single parent households.^[5]

Impacts on young people as users of public services

Summary: If public sector workforce reductions have an impact on service delivery (the aim is that this policy will the intention is that this policy will protect front-line services), there are several public services that primarily serve children and young people that could potentially be impacted. These include Children’s social services, schools, and local authority-provided early learning and childcare. However, the intention is that this policy will protect front-line services.

7. Provision of early learning services links to UNCRC Article 18 (Parental responsibilities and state assistance, including ensuring the development of institutions, services and facilities for the care of children for the purpose of guaranteeing and promoting the rights under the UNCRC requirements) (as incorporated).

8. Provision of primary and secondary schooling links to UNCRC Article 28 (Right to education) (as incorporated).

9. Provision of paediatric medical care services, including primary care, links to UNCRC Article 24 (right to enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of health and to access healthcare services) (as incorporated).

10. Provision of children’s social care links to UNCRC Articles 19 (Protection from violence, abuse and neglect while in the care of parents/guardians/other persons) (as incorporated), 20 (rights of children unable to live with their family) (as incorporated) and 21 (Adoption) (as incorporated).

11. Provision of appropriate social security benefits (such as the Five Family Payments) links to UNCRC Article 26 (the right to benefit from social security, where appropriate, taking into account (among other factors) the child and their parents’/guardians’ resources and circumstances) (as incorporated).

12. Further background analysis on both direct and indirect impacts of the proposal is contained in Annex 3

4. Further to the evidence described at ‘3’ have you identified any 'gaps' in evidence which may prevent determination of impact? If yes, please provide an explanation of how they will be addressed

Guidance: See page 19 in Internal CRWIA and SoC for more information.

13. Yes, gaps have been identified, for which we hope to address through our Workforce Management Policy. This is a high-level strategic workforce position covering the entire devolved public sector. Within this overall direction, some workforces may grow while others may reduce, but front-line services will be protected. To support this, we are developing an integrated Workforce Management Policy—to be published alongside the Public Sector Pay Policy—to help public bodies and financial portfolios carry out more detailed CRWIA assessments on how workforce changes may affect their specific areas. The position above means that, at the time of carrying out this impact assessment, it is difficult to precisely determine where reductions in the public sector will occur.

Gaps in evidence

We do not have direct evidence on:

14. The number of parents of children under the age of 18 in the public sector workforce.

15. The impact of future changes to the public sector workforce on the provision of services for children and young people, given the relevant decisions have not yet been taken.

5. Analysis of Evidence

The Scottish Government aims to develop a strategic workforce approach that supports public sector reform while giving Public Bodies flexibility in implementation. Ahead of detailed plans being outlined in the upcoming Workforce Management Plan, this analysis assumes workforce cuts will be applied universally across the entire devolved public sector. This broad assumption means the findings should be interpreted with caution.

In general we do not expect there to be any immediate negative impacts on children’s rights and wellbeing. Article 27 also applies to children of parents who work in the public sector whose jobs may be at risk. Several mitigations are in place, which are outlined in section 9.

Impact on parents in the devolved public sector workforce

While there is no publicly available data on how many parents work in the devolved public sector, we know that changes to the public sector workforce could affect the employment status of parents and therefore the economic wellbeing of children under the age of 18, linking to Article 27 (right to an adequate standard of living) (as incorporated). Because the public sector workforce contains more female workers than male workers, and lone parents are predominantly mothers, we have identified an additional potentially intersectional impact on lone mothers and therefore the economic wellbeing of children in lone parent households — who are more likely to be economically disadvantaged. In Scotland, 4 in 10 children in poverty live in lone parent families, and the gender pay gap plays a major role in this.

The workforce strategic position establishes a unified framework that will be consistently applied to all employees, irrespective of gender, age, disability, ethnicity, or other personal characteristics. All devolved public sector employers will be required to confirm that they have considered their responsibilities under equalities legislation when developing their workforce plans. This includes reviewing the gender makeup of their workforce to assess how their proposals might adversely affect vulnerable groups.

Impacts on children as users of public services

Services used by children include schools, early learning and childcare, and paediatric healthcare. Provision of early learning services links to UNCRC Article 18 (Parental responsibilities and state assistance, including ensuring the development of institutions, services and facilities for the care of children for the purpose of guaranteeing and promoting the rights under the UNCRC requirements (as incorporated)). Provision of primary and secondary schooling links to UNCRC Article 28 (Right to education) (as incorporated). Provision of paediatric medical care services, including primary care, links to UNCRC Article 24 (right to enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of health and to access healthcare services) (as incorporated).

Should there be an impact on the provision of these services used by children, not all children will be affected equally, and certain groups could be more vulnerable to changes in the provision of public services. Children in care, care leavers, and young people under child protection are especially affected by changes in public services such as social care. Provision of children’s social care links to UNCRC Articles 19 (Protection from violence, abuse and neglect while in the care of parents/guardians/other persons) (as incorporated)), 20 (rights of children unable to live with their family) (as incorporated) and 21 (Adoption) (as incorporated). Additionally, mothers under 20 and their children may be disproportionately impacted (in the event that back-office workforce reductions results in longer Social Security processing times), as they rely more heavily on benefits and tax credits than older mothers. Provision of appropriate social security benefits (such as the Five Family Payments) links to UNCRC Article 26 (the right to benefit from social security, where appropriate, taking into account (among other factors) the child and their parents’/guardians’ resources and circumstances) (as incorporated). Evidence suggests that the impact of any potential reduction in public services is likely to fall more heavily on these groups because of their greater reliance on the broad range of public services.

6. What changes (if any) have been made to the proposal as a result of this assessment?

The strategic workforce position acknowledges that workforce reductions could impact service delivery so includes a specific commitment to protecting front line services. Further work will be undertaken to develop a Workforce Management Policy and control framework. This will set the principles, parameters and metrics, governance and controls required to operationalise our approach to workforce management in public bodies, integrated with the Public Sector Pay Policy to underline the connection between these two drivers of public spending.

To mitigate against some of the highlighted areas of potential impact on children’s rights and wellbeing. it is important that proper governance is adopted, which provides the space for public leaders to carry out their own robust impact assessments to inform local decisions on implementation. We will continue to monitor and analyse the impact of the policy on children’s rights and wellbeing, through scrutiny of the workforce plans as developed by portfolios in the devolved public sector.