Changes to Labour Market Statistics in Scotland: What You Need to Know

This paper outlines the Scottish Government’s decision to discontinue funding for the Office for National Statistics local Labour Force Survey (LFS) boost for Scotland and assesses the potential impact this will have on labour market statistics. It presents findings from a simulation using January to December 2024 APS data and sets out the next steps to ensure continued access to high-quality labour market insights for Scotland.

1 Summary

The Scottish Government has made the decision to discontinue funding the Office for National Statistics (ONS) local Labour Force Survey (LFS) boost for Scotland from the October to December 2025 data collection onwards. This boost has historically contributed to the overall sample size of the ONS Annual Population Survey (APS), which combines core LFS responses with additional data collected through local boosts. However, despite funding the APS boost in Scotland, we have experienced a significant downward trend in achieved sample sizes which has impacted the quality of provision and statistics.

This decision reflects that trend and a broader shift in how labour market statistics are produced and used in Scotland, driven by declining response rates, rising costs, and longstanding concerns about data quality, particularly at sub-national levels.

To understand the potential impact of this decision, we conducted a simulation using the January to December 2024 Annual Population Survey (APS) microdata. By removing the Scottish LFS boost cases from the dataset, we were able to assess how the absence of the boost would affect the number and quality of publishable labour market estimates. This approach allowed us to compare the current landscape with a future scenario where the boost is no longer present.

Key findings from the analysis include:

• Overall Impact: Removing the boost resulted in a 17.3% reduction in the number of estimates classified as “robust” under ONS data quality rules. This figure is largely driven by local authority level estimates
• Local Authority Estimates: These are most affected, with a 35.7% reduction in “robust” estimates. This decline is concentrated in statistics for employment among 16 to 24 year olds and headline economic inactivity
• National and Regional Estimates: When local authority data is excluded, the reduction in “robust” estimates falls to just 5.5%, with only six estimates reclassified. This demonstrates that the removal of the boost has minimal impact on broader geographic levels
• Unemployment and Ethnicity: Outside of local authority data, the remaining reductions in robustness are primarily clustered in unemployment and ethnicity related estimates. Notably, binary ethnicity breakdowns (e.g. 'White' and 'Minority ethnic group') remain unaffected, suggesting broader groupings may help maintain data quality

While the removal of the boost will lead to greater volatility in some estimates, including wider confidence intervals and higher Coefficient of Variation (CV) values, the overall number of publishable statistics is expected to remain largely unchanged, provided APS sample sizes remain stable or improve.

To ensure continued access to high-quality labour market statistics, the Scottish Government is actively exploring alternative data sources, including administrative financial data and other public and private sector data. This work marks the beginning of a transformation in how labour market data is collected and used in Scotland. Alongside this, the Scottish Government will continue to work closely with the ONS to support the development of the transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), a redesigned, digitally focused survey anticipated to launch in late 2026.

Stakeholder engagement will be central to this process, with a series of sessions planned throughout the remainder of 2025 and 2026 to ensure that future labour market statistics reflect the needs of users across Scotland