Cereal and oilseed rape harvest - first estimates: 2019

Initial estimates of area, yield and production for winter and spring barley, wheat, oats and oilseed rape, for the 2019 harvest.


Total cereal production has increased in 2019 compared to the previous year according to initial estimates. Improved weather conditions during winter months may have contributed to the increase. However, some crops have seen a reduction in quality due to mixed fortunes in weather during the summer months.

The area of cereals grown increased two per cent in the last year to 430,000 hectares. Yield estimates look likely to increase by 26 per cent, which could lead to a 29 per cent rise in production, to 3.2 million tonnes.

While most crops are expected to see large increases in production, oilseed rape is predicted to see a small rise in 2019.

How first estimates are calculated

Our annual harvest first estimates are based on advice from industry experts on expected yields. We combine this with census results for the areas grown to estimate the total amount of production.

First estimates monitor cereal production

The EU and Scottish Government use the data as an early indicator of harvest problems.

First estimates are fairly accurate

The data collected on areas grown is very good. However, differences in the first and final yield estimates can vary as more information is collected once the harvest has been completed.


Email: kirsty.naylor@gov.scot

Back to top