Publication - Research and analysis

Air Departure Tax reduction in Scotland: noise impact assessment

Published: 6 Mar 2019

Potential impact on noise levels of our plans to reduce the overall burden of Air Departure Tax (ADT) by 50%.

118 page PDF

6.8 MB

118 page PDF

6.8 MB

Contents
Air Departure Tax reduction in Scotland: noise impact assessment
5. modelling results and potential impacts

118 page PDF

6.8 MB

5. modelling results and potential impacts

5.1. Noise Prediction Results

5.1.1. Baseline 2017 LAeq,16h contours for all airports in Scotland are shown in Figure 1. The comparison between the 2017 and 2022 baselines (LAeq,16h and Lnight) for the all airports are shown in Figures C.1 to C.10 in Appendix C. These figures also show the population per ward and additional residential developments identified within the future population mapping exercise.

5.1.2. For each of the future scenarios that have been assessed, LAeq,16h and Lnight contours have been produced. In order to demonstrate the relative noise impact of the changes, the areas covered by LAeq,16h and Lnight contours have been presented for each scenario with the respective 2022 baseline contours along with the population per ward and additional residential developments. These noise contour plots are shown in Figures C.11 to C.58 in Appendix C. Table 2 presents a summary guide to the layout of each noise scenario and the individual airport mappings in Appendix C.

Table 2: Reference Guide to Appendix C Noise Contour Maps

Scenario Aberdeen Edinburgh Glasgow Inverness Prestwick
Baseline 2017 v Baseline 2022 Figures C.1-C.2 Figures C.3-C.4 Figures C.5-C.6 Figures C.7-C.8 Figures C.9-C.10
Scenario 1a Figures C.11-C.12 Figures C.23-C.24 Figures C.35-C.36 - Figures C.47-C.48
Scenario 1c Figures C.13-C.14 Figures C.25-C.26 Figures C.37-C.38 - Figures C.49-C.50
Scenario 2a Figures C.15-C.16 Figures C.27-C.28 Figures C.39-C.40 - Figures C.51-C.52
Scenario 2c Figures C.17-C.18 Figures C.29-C.30 Figures C.41-C.42 - Figures C.53-C.54
Scenario 3a Figures C.19-C.20 Figures C.31-C.32 Figures C.43-C.44 - Figures C.55-C.56
Scenario 3c Figures C.21-C.22 Figures C.33-C.34 Figures C.45-C.46 - Figures C.57-C.58

Figure 1 Baseline LAeq,16h dB Noise Contours for All Airports, 2017

Figure 1 Baseline LAeq,16h dB Noise Contours for All Airports, 2017

5.2. Results by individual airport

Aberdeen Airport

5.2.1. The results of noise predictions for each scenario along with the population distribution around Aberdeen Airport are presented in Figure C.11 to Figure C.22 of Appendix C. The results of noise predictions showing the area covered by each contour band at Aberdeen Airport are presented in Table 3. The cells showing the scenarios with the largest and smallest noise impacts at Aberdeen Airport are shaded dark grey and light grey respectively for easy identification. The discussion of noise predictions takes into account the lowest noise contour level for day and night periods as they are considered to represent the onset of adverse levels of aircraft noise.

Table 3: Aberdeen Airport Contour Area Coverage (km2)

Noise Level (dB(A)) Scenario
2017 Baseline 2022 Baseline 100% cut in Band A 100% cut in Band B 50% cut in Band A & Band B
1a Full Pass Through 1c Zero Pass Through 2a Full Pass Through 2c Zero PassThrough 3a Full PassThrough 3c Zero PassThrough
Daytime LAeq,16h
≥51 14.7 15.2 15.5 15.5 15.2 15.5 15.4 15.6
≥54 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.6 8.8
≥57 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7
≥60 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
≥63 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.1
≥66 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
≥69 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
>72 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Night-time Lnight
≥45 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.1 17.8 18.1 17.9 18.2
≥48 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.2 10.1 10.3
≥51 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.7
≥54 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.0
≥57 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6
≥60 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
≥63 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
≥66 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
≥69 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
>72 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

5.2.2. Noise predictions indicate that the increase in 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour will range from no change for Scenario 2a to +0.4 km2 for Scenario 3c. The change in 45 dB Lnight noise contour area will range from +0.1 km2 for Scenario 2a to +0.5 km2 for Scenario 3c. 

5.2.3. Scenario 3c gives the largest increase in 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour area. This represents a 3% increase in contour size and the 45 dB Lnight noise contour also represents a 3% increase in contour size.

5.2.4. The results of analysis to identify population exposed to aircraft noise in each contour band are presented in Table 4.

Table 4: Aberdeen Airport Population Exposure

Noise Level (dB(A)) Scenario
2017 Baseline 2022 Baseline 100% cut in Band A 100% cut in Band B 50% cut in Band A & Band B
1a Full Pass Through 1c Zero Pass Through 2a Full Pass Through 2c Zero Pass Through 3a Full Pass Through 3c Zero Pass Through
Daytime LAeq,16h
≥51 16,810 17,766 18,263 18,342 17,961 18,314 18,141 18,380
≥54 6,174 6,711 7,124 7,195 6,857 7,169 7,006 7,212
≥57 1,791 1,911 2,033 2,052 1,924 2,037 1,954 2,054
≥60 486 578 627 636 584 631 603 640
≥63 15 15 17 17 15 17 17 17
≥66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
≥69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Night-time Lnight
≥45 22,740 24,114 24,856 24,946 24,330 24,946 24,571 25,036
≥48 10,060 9,885 10,233 10,281 10,013 10,272 10,118 10,313
≥51 2,919 2,955 3,090 3,101 2,987 3,097 3,030 3,116
≥54 1,036 967 1,064 1,079 980 1,079 1,044 1,081
≥57 71 47 60 60 47 60 60 60
≥60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
≥63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
≥66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
≥69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5.2.5. The population analysis indicates that the increase in population within the 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour will range from 195 people (i.e. 17,961 minus the 2022 baseline of 17,766) for Scenario 2a to 614 people for Scenario 3c. The increase in population within the 45 dB Lnight contour area will range from 216 people for Scenario 2a to 922 people for Scenario 3c.

5.2.6. The highest increase in population within the 51 dB LAeq,16h represents a 3% increase in population in Scenario 3C. The highest increase in noise 45 dB Lnight represents a 4% increase in population in Scenario 3C. Comparison of the area covered by noise contours shows a proportional increase in area and population for the 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour. Although the percentage increase in area covered by the 45 dB Lnight noise contour is greater than the daytime, the percentage increase in population does not show a similar proportional increase as the 51 dB LAeq,16h. This indicates the additional noise contour coverage accounts for less densely populated areas than the 45 dB Lnight 2022 baseline noise contour.

5.2.7. A summary of the changes in area (referenced from Table 3) and population (referenced from Table 4) exposed to noise within the 51 dB LAeq,16h and 45 dB LAeq,8h noise contours for each scenario in comparison with the 2022 baseline scenario are summarised in Table 5.

Table 5: Aberdeen Airport Increase in Area and Population Summary

Scenario Population Increase Area Increase / km2
51 dB LAeq,16h 45 dB Lnight 51 dB LAeq,16h 45 dB Lnight
1a 496 743 0.3 0.4
1c 576 832 0.4 0.4
2a 195 216 0.1 0.1
2c 548 832 0.4 0.4
3a 375 458 0.2 0.2
3c 614 922 0.4 0.5

5.2.8. The results in Table 5 of the assessment of increase in area and population exposed to noise indicate that Scenario 3c (50% cut in Band A & Band B and Zero Pass Through) represents the highest impact in terms of noise at Aberdeen International Airport. The day period sees an increase in the area affected of 0.4 km2 and in the population affected of 614 people whereas the night period sees an increase in the area affected of 0.5 km2 and the affected population of 922 people. 

5.2.9. Scenario 2a (100% cut in Band B and Full Pass Through) represents the smallest impact in terms of noise. The day period sees an increase in area of 0.1 km2 and population of 195 people whereas the night period sees an increase in area of 0.1 km2 and population of 216 people.

5.2.10. The noise contour plots for the highest impact scenario (Scenario 3c) are presented in Figure C.21 (daytime) and Figure C.22 (night-time) of Appendix C. The noise contour plots for the lowest impact scenario (Scenario 2a) are presented in Figure C.15 (daytime) and Figure C.16 (night-time) of Appendix C.

Edinburgh Airport

5.2.11. The results of noise predictions for each scenario along with the population distribution around Edinburgh Airport are presented in Figure C.23 to Figure C.34 of Appendix C. The results of noise predictions showing the area covered by each contour band at Edinburgh Airport are presented in Table 6. The cells showing the scenario with the largest and smallest noise impact at Edinburgh Airport are shaded dark grey and light grey respectively for easy identification. The discussion of noise predictions takes into account the lowest noise contour level for day and night periods as they are considered to represent the onset of adverse levels of aircraft noise.

Table 6: Edinburgh Airport Contour Area Coverage (km2)

Noise Level (dB(A)) Scenario
2017  Baseline 2022 Baseline 100% cut in Band A 100% cut in Band B 50% cut in Band A & Band B
1a Full Pass Through 1c Zero Pass Through 2a Full Pass Through 2c Zero Pass Through 3a Full Pass Through 3c Zero Pass Through
Daytime LAeq,16h
≥51 49.0 49.7 51.7 54.5 49.9 50.6 50.8 52.8
≥54 28.4 28.8 30.1 32.0 28.9 29.4 29.5 30.9
≥57 15.7 15.8 16.5 17.5 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.9
≥60 9.0 9.0 9.4 9.9 9.1 9.2 9.2 9.6
≥63 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.4
≥66 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8
≥69 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5
>72 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Night-time Lnight
≥45 52.9 54.6 56.6 59.5 54.8 56.0 55.7 58.1
≥48 30.3 31.6 32.8 34.7 31.7 32.4 32.3 33.8
≥51 16.9 17.5 18.2 19.2 17.6 18.0 17.9 18.8
≥54 9.5 9.8 10.2 10.8 9.9 10.1 10.0 10.5
≥57 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.8 5.2 5.4 5.3 5.6
≥60 2.6 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9
≥63 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6
≥66 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9
≥69 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
>72 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

5.2.12. Noise predictions indicate that the increase in 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour will range from +0.2 km2 for Scenario 2a to +4.8 km2 for Scenario 1c. The change in 45 dB Lnight noise contour area will range from +0.2 km2 for Scenario 2a to +4.9 km2 for Scenario 1c. 

5.2.13. The Scenario 1c increase in 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour area represents a 9% increase in contour size. The highest increase in the 45 dB Lnight noise contour represents a 9% increase in contour size. The results of analysis to identify population exposed to aircraft noise in each contour band are presented in Table 7.

Table 7: Edinburgh Airport Population Exposure

Noise Level (dB(A))

Scenario

2017 Baseline

2022 Baseline

100% cut in Band A

100% cut in Band B

50% cut in Band A & Band B

1a Full Pass Through 1c Zero Pass Through 2a Full Pass Through 2c Zero Pass Through 3a Full Pass Through 3c Zero Pass Through

Daytime LAeq,16h

≥51

22,331 24,897 27,206 30,653 25,106 25,977 26,129 28,468

≥54

5,680 6,138 6,390 6,726 6,148 6,289 6,296 6,491

≥57

3,745 3,784 3,850 3,944 3,792 3,816 3,820 3,880

≥60

1,866 2,067 2,313 2,570 2,078 2,176 2,191 2,416

≥63

430 430 441 464 430 437 437 456

≥66

199 180 218 259 186 199 201 242

≥69

4 4 6 11 4 6 6 9

>72

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Night-time Lnight

≥45

15,322 20,578 22,667 25,999 20,807 21,819 21,789 24,285

≥48

5,042 6,170 6,632 6,964 6,221 6,461 6,343 6,788

≥51

3,828 3,933 3,998 4,092 3,938 3,974 3,965 4,036

≥54

2,868 2,930 2,983 3,052 2,932 2,966 2,960 3,015

≥57

732 803 895 1,209 813 892 841 1,046

≥60

109 126 169 225 131 148 143 195

≥63

2 2 2 6 2 2 2 2

≥66

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

≥69

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

>72

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5.2.14. The population analysis indicates that the increase in population within the 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour will range from 210 people for Scenario 2a to 5,757 people for Scenario 1c. The increase in population within the 45 dB Lnight contour area will range from 229 people for Scenario 2a to 5,421 people for Scenario 1c.

5.2.15. The Scenario 1c increase in population within the 51 dB LAeq,16h represents a 23% increase in population. The highest increase in noise 45 dB Lnight represents a 26% increase in population. 

5.2.16. Comparison of the area covered by noise contours shows an approximate similar proportional increase in area and population for the 51 dB LAeq,16h and 45 dB Lnight noise contours. However, the marginally higher percentage increase in 45 dB Lnight indicates that the increased area is more densely populated than the increased area covered by the 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour.Table 8.

Table 8: Edinburgh Airport Increase in Area and Population Summary

Scenario Population Increase Area Increase / km2
51 dB LAeq,16h 45 dB Lnight 51 dB LAeq,16h 45 dB Lnight
1a 2,309 2,089 2.0 2.0
1c 5,757 5,421 4.7 4.9
2a 210 229 0.2 0.2
2c 1,081 1,241 0.9 1.3
3a 1,233 1,211 1.1 1.1
3c 3,572 3,706 3.1 3.5

5.2.17. The results of the assessment of increase in area and population exposed to noise indicate that Scenario 1c (100% cut in Band A , Zero Pass Through) represents the highest impact in terms of noise and Scenario 2a (100% cut in Band B and Full Pass Through) represents the smallest impact. The day period sees an increase in area of 4.7 km2 and population affected of 5,757 people whereas the night period sees an increase in area of 4.9 km2 and population of 5,421 people affected. 

5.2.18. Scenario 2a (100% cut in Band B and Full Pass Through) represents the smallest impact in terms of noise. The day period sees an increase in area of 0.2 km2 and population of 210 people whereas the night period sees an increase in area of 0.2 km2 and population of 229 people.

5.2.19. The noise contour plots for the highest impact scenario (Scenario 1c) are presented in Figure C.25 (daytime) and Figure C.26 (night-time) of Appendix C. The noise contour plots for the lowest impact scenario (Scenario 2a) are presented in Figure C.27 (daytime) and Figure C.28 (night-time) of Appendix C.

Glasgow Airport

5.2.20. The results of noise predictions for each scenario along with the population distribution around Glasgow Airport are presented in Figure C.35 to Figure C.46 of Appendix C. The results of noise predictions showing the area covered by each contour band at Glasgow Airport are presented in Table 9. The cells showing the scenario with the largest and smallest noise impact at Glasgow Airport are shaded dark grey and light grey respectively for easy identification. The discussion of noise predictions takes into account the lowest noise contour level for day and night periods as they are considered to represent the onset of adverse levels of aircraft noise.

Table 9: Glasgow Airport Contour Area Coverage (km2)

Noise Level (dB(A)) Scenario
2017 Baseline 2022 Baseline 100% cut in Band A 100% cut in Band B 50% cut in Band A & Band B
1a Full Pass Through 1c Zero Pass Through 2a Full Pass Through 2c Zero Pass Through 3a Full Pass Through 3c Zero Pass Through
Daytime LAeq,16h
≥51 38.9 39.9 41.3 43.3 40.2 41.5 40.7 42.8
≥54 21.8 22.4 23.3 24.5 22.6 23.5 22.9 24.2
≥57 12.2 12.5 13.0 13.6 12.6 13.1 12.8 13.5
≥60 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.8 7.2 7.5 7.3 7.7
≥63 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.3
≥66 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.3
≥69 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3
>72 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Night-time Lnight
≥45 54.9 56.2 58.1 60.7 56.6 57.9 57.3 59.7
≥48 32.2 33.0 34.2 35.8 33.2 34.1 33.7 35.3
≥51 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.4 18.8 19.4 19.1 20.0
≥54 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.5 10.7 11.0 10.9 11.4
≥57 5.9 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.5
≥60 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.5
≥63 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
≥66 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1
≥69 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
>72 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

5.2.21. Noise predictions indicate that the increase in 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour will range from +0.4 km2 for Scenario 2a to +4.5 km2 for Scenario 1c. The change in 45 dB Lnight noise contour area will range from +0.3 km2 for Scenario 2a to +3.4 km2 for Scenario 1c. 

5.2.22. The highest increase in 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour area represents an 11% increase in contour size. The highest increase in the 45 dB Lnight noise contour represents a 6% increase in contour size.

5.2.23. The results of analysis to identify population exposed to aircraft noise in each contour band are presented in Table 10.

Table 10: Glasgow Airport Population Exposure

Noise Level (dB(A)) Scenario
2017 Baseline 2022 Baseline 100% cut in Band A 100% cut in Band B 50% cut in Band A & Band B
1a Full Pass Through 1c Zero Pass Through 2a Full Pass Through 2c Zero Pass Through 3a Full Pass Through 3c Zero Pass Through
Daytime LAeq,16h
≥51 63,139 68,275 70,487 72,308 69,143 70,181 69,805 71,630
≥54 29,838 32,684 35,423 37,951 33,587 35,316 34,373 37,193
≥57 8,894 10,174 10,997 12,119 10,353 11,152 10,642 11,821
≥60 2,679 2,793 2,923 3,114 2,827 2,949 2,878 3,069
≥63 576 668 837 1,027 704 852 768 974
≥66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
≥69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Night-time Lnight
≥45 52,351 87,004 89,461 91,254 88,136 88,493 88,686 90,252
≥48 22,446 56,517 59,717 61,814 57,938 58,874 58,734 60,889
≥51 6,953 24,711 26,649 28,747 25,184 26,551 25,870 28,102
≥54 2,059 7,389 7,918 8,603 7,490 7,843 7,719 8,318
≥57 96 2,131 2,337 2,523 2,179 2,305 2,228 2,457
≥60 0 148 227 383 158 199 184 321
≥63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
≥66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
≥69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5.2.24. The population analysis indicates that the increase in population within the 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour will range from 869 people for Scenario 2a to 4,034 people for Scenario 1c. The increase in population within the 45 dB Lnight contour area will range from 1,132 people for Scenario 2a to 4,250 people for Scenario 1c.

5.2.25. The highest increase in population within the 51 dB LAeq,16h represents a 6% increase in population. The highest increase in noise 45 dB Lnight represents a 5% increase in population. 

5.2.26. Comparison of the area covered by noise contours shows a higher percentage increase in area than population for the 51 dB LAeq,16h. However, the 45 dB Lnight noise contour show an approximately similar percentage increase in area and population. Consequently, it can be concluded that the area covered by increases in 51 dB LAeq,16h is more densely populated that the increase in area covered by the 45 dB Lnight noise contour.

5.2.27. A summary of the changes in area (referenced from Table 9) and population (referenced from Table 10) exposed to noise within the 51 dB LAeq,16h and 45 dB LAeq,8h noise contours for each scenario in comparison with the 2022 baseline scenario are summarised in Table 11.

Table 11: Glasgow Airport Increase in Area and Population Summary

Scenario Population Increase Area Increase / km2
51 dB LAeq,16h 45 dB Lnight 51 dB LAeq,16h 45 dB Lnight
1a 2,213 2,457 1.9 1.4
1c 4,034 4,250 4.5 3.4
2a 869 1,132 0.4 0.3
2c 1,907 1,489 1.7 1.6
3a 1,530 1,682 1.1 0.8
3c 3,356 3,249 3.6 2.9

5.2.28. The results of the assessment of increase in area and population exposed to noise indicate that Scenario 1c (100% cut in Band A, Zero Pass Through) represents the highest impact in terms of noise and Scenario 2a (100% cut in Band B and Full Pass Through) represents the smallest impact. 

5.2.29. For Scenario 1c, representing the highest impact in terms of noise, the day period sees an increase in the area affected of 4.5 km2 and the population affected of 4,034 whereas the night period sees an increase in area of 3.4 km2 and population of 4,250. 

5.2.30. Scenario 2a represents the smallest impact in terms of noise. The day period sees an increase in the area affected of 0.4 km2 and the population affected of 869 whereas the night period sees an increase in area of 0.3 km2 and population of 1,132.

5.2.31. The noise contour plots for the highest impact scenario (Scenario 1c) are presented in Figure C.37 (daytime) and Figure C.38 (night-time) of Appendix C. The noise contour plots for the lowest impact scenario (Scenario 2a) are presented in Figure C.39 (daytime) and Figure C.40 (night-time) of Appendix C.

Prestwick Airport

5.2.32. The results of noise predictions for each scenario along with the population distribution around Prestwick Airport are presented in Figure C.47 to Figure C.58 of Appendix C. The results of noise predictions showing the area covered by each contour band at Prestwick Airport are presented in Table 12. The cells showing the scenario with the largest and smallest noise impact at Prestwick Airport are shaded dark grey and light grey respectively for easy identification. The discussion of noise predictions takes into account the lowest noise contour level for day and night periods as they are considered to represent the onset of adverse levels of aircraft noise.

Table 12: Prestwick Airport Contour Area Coverage (km2)

Noise Level (dB(A)) Scenario
2017 Baseline 2022 Baseline 100% cut in Band A 100% cut in Band B 50% cut in Band A & Band B
1a Full Pass Through 1c Zero Pass Through 2a Full Pass Through 2c Zero Pass Through 3a Full Pass Through 3c Zero Pass Through
Daytime LAeq,16h
≥51 30.0 30.2 31.8 33.9 30.2 30.2 31.0 32.3
≥54 17.1 17.3 18.2 19.4 17.3 17.3 17.7 18.5
≥57 10.1 10.2 10.7 11.4 10.2 10.2 10.4 10.9
≥60 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.5 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.2
≥63 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2
≥66 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
≥69 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
>72 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8
Night-time Lnight
≥45 38.4 38.8 42.1 46.3 38.8 38.8 40.4 43.1
≥48 22.2 22.4 24.3 26.6 22.4 22.4 23.4 24.9
≥51 12.6 12.8 13.7 15.0 12.8 12.8 13.2 14.0
≥54 7.6 7.7 8.3 9.0 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.4
≥57 4.1 4.2 4.6 5.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.7
≥60 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
≥63 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5
≥66 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
≥69 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
>72 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

5.2.33. Noise predictions indicate that the increase in 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour will range from no change for Scenarios 2a and 2c to +3.7 km2 for Scenario 1c. The change in 45 dB Lnight noise contour area will range from +0.3 km2 for Scenarios 2a and 2c to +7.5 km2 for Scenario 1c. 

5.2.34. The highest increase in 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour area represents a 12% increase in contour size. The highest increase in the 45 dB Lnight noise contour represents a 19% increase in contour size.

5.2.35. The results of analysis to identify population exposed to aircraft noise in each contour band are presented in Table 13.

Table 13: Prestwick Airport Population Exposure

Noise Level (dB(A)) Scenario
2017 Baseline 2022 Baseline 100% cut in Band A 100% cut in Band B 50% cut in Band A & Band B
1a Full Pass Through 1c Zero Pass Through 2a Full Pass Through 2c Zero Pass Through 3a Full Pass Through 3c Zero Pass Through
Daytime LAeq,16h
≥51 4,901 5,408 5,645 5,943 5,408 5,408 5,515 5,744
≥54 2,992 3,150 3,268 3,426 3,150 3,150 3,219 3,326
≥57 1,299 1,350 1,519 1,785 1,350 1,350 1,451 1,596
≥60 261 295 349 407 295 295 317 362
≥63 90 103 109 113 103 103 107 109
≥66 47 49 54 60 49 49 54 54
≥69 6 6 15 15 6 6 11 15
>72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Night-time Lnight
≥45 6,739 7,584 8,171 8,956 7,584 7,584 7,875 8,316
≥48 3,918 4,334 4,663 5,164 4,334 4,334 4,500 4,785
≥51 2,666 2,810 2,983 3,163 2,810 2,810 2,883 3,022
≥54 1,055 1,128 1,357 1,577 1,128 1,128 1,235 1,406
≥57 154 182 214 259 182 182 205 225
≥60 75 83 90 94 83 83 88 90
≥63 26 28 34 47 28 28 30 36
≥66 0 2 9 13 2 2 4 11
≥69 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
>72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

5.2.36. The population analysis indicates that the increase in population within the 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour will range from no change for Scenarios 2a and 2c to 535 people for Scenario 1c. The increase in population within the 45 dB Lnight contour area will range from no change for Scenarios 2a and 2c to 1,372 people for Scenario 1c.

5.2.37. The highest increase in population within the 51 dB LAeq,16h represents a 10% increase in population. The highest increase in noise 45 dB Lnight represents a 19% increase in population. 

5.2.38. Comparison of the area covered by noise contours shows an approximate similar proportional increase in area and population for the 51 dB LAeq,16h and 45 dB Lnight noise contours. However, the higher percentage increase in 45 dB Lnight indicates that the increased area is more densely populated than the increased area covered by the 51 dB LAeq,16h noise contour.

5.2.39. A summary of the changes in area (referenced from Table 12) and population (referenced from Table 13) exposed to noise within the 51 dB LAeq,16h and 45 dB LAeq,8h noise contours for each scenario in comparison with the 2022 baseline scenario are summarised in Table 14.

Table 14: Prestwick Airport Increase in Area and Population Summary

Scenario Population Increase Area Increase / km2
51 dB LAeq,16h 45 dB Lnight 51 dB LAeq,16h 45 dB Lnight
1a 238 586 1.6 3.3
1c 535 1372 3.7 7.5
2a 0 0 0.0 0.0
2c 0 0 0.0 0.0
3a 107 291 0.8 1.6
3c 336 732 2.1 4.3

5.2.40. The results of the assessment of increase in area and population exposed to noise indicate that Scenario 1c (100% cut in Band A, Zero Pass Through) represents the highest impact in terms of noise and Scenario 2a (100% cut in Band B and Full Pass Through) represents the smallest impact. 

5.2.41. For Scenario 2c representing the highest impact, the day period sees an increase in area of 3.7 km2 and population of 535 people whereas the night period sees an increase in area of 7.5 km2 and population of 732 people.

5.2.42. Scenario 2a (100% cut in Band B and Full Pass Through) and 2c (100% cut in Band B and Zero Pass Through) represents the smallest impact in terms of noise as the changes to ADT do not result in any additional passengers.

5.2.43. The noise contour plots for the highest impact scenario (Scenario 1c) are presented in Figure C.49 (daytime) and Figure C.50 (night-time) of Appendix C. The noise contour plots for the lowest impact scenario (Scenario 2a) are presented in Figure C.52 (daytime) and Figure C.51 (night-time) of Appendix C.

5.3. Summary of Results

5.3.1. A summary of the increase in the population exposed to increased noise as a result of changes in ADT at all airports considered in the assessment are presented in Table 15. The changes in population exposure are calculated through comparison with the 2022 baseline scenario with the largest and smallest impact scenarios shaded dark grey and light grey respectively for easy identification.

Table 15: Increase in Population Affected by Noise

Airport Noise Contour Change in Population Affected
1a Full Pass Through 1c Zero Pass Through 2a Full Pass Through 2c Zero Pass Through 3a Full Pass Through 3c Zero Pass Through
Aberdeen 51 dB LAeq,16h  496 576 195 548 375 614
45 dB Lnight 743 832 216 832 458 922
Edinburgh 51 dB LAeq,16h 2,309 5,757 210 1,081 1,233 3,572
45 dB Lnight 2,089 5,421 229 1,241 1,211 3,706
Glasgow 51 dB LAeq,16h 2,213 4,034 869 1,907 1,530 3,356
45 dB Lnight 2,457 4,250 1,132 1,489 1,682 3,249
Prestwick 51 dB LAeq,16h 238 535 0 0 107 336
45 dB Lnight 586 1,372 0 0 291 732
Total Change in Affected Population 51 dB LAeq,16h 5,256 10,902 1,274 3,536 3,245 7,878
45 dB Lnight 5,875 11,875 1,577 3,562 3,642 8,609

5.3.2. Based on the total area covered by the contours, the largest impact scenarios have been identified to be: 3c (50% cut in Band A & Band B with Zero Pass Through) for Aberdeen and 1c (100% cut in Band A with Zero Pass Through) for Edinburgh, Glasgow and Prestwick.

5.3.3. The increase in population affected under Scenario 1c, identified as having the highest overall impact across all modelled airports, is 10,902 people during daytime and 11,875 people during night-time. This is consistent with the conclusions of the economic assessment which identified Scenario 1c as the scenario likely to generate the greatest economic impact by virtue of the fact that it involved the greatest supply-side response to a reduction in ADT.

5.3.4. The overall increase in population affected during Scenario 2a, identified as having the smallest impact, is 1,274 people during daytime and 1,577 people during night-time.

5.3.5. As expected, these results correspond with PBA’s passenger movement forecasts, from which forecast changes in ATMs have been derived. PBA forecast the largest increase in overall passenger movements from all airports under Scenario 1c – where airlines do not lower air fares but instead invest in the development of routes applicable for Band A UK APD rates. Aberdeen Airport is the exception, where the economic analysis identifies that the demand response to lower air fares from an ADT cut (Scenario 3c) is expected to lead to greater increases in passengers (and subsequently ATMs) than from the supply side effect of route development.


Contact

Email: adt@gov.scot