UK Immigration White Paper 2025: Scottish Government proposals

Overview of immigration system-related issues facing Scotland

Scotland’s Demographic Challenge

The latest population projections for Scotland, published in January 2025, show that although Scotland’s population is expected to continue to rise until mid-2047 (increasing by 6.2% compared to 2022’s baseline), all of this population growth is expected to be driven by inward migration, with the number of deaths continuing to outweigh the number of births in Scotland each year, as is already the case.

In the same period, the number of children in Scotland is projected to decrease at a faster rate than for the UK as a whole, while the number of people of pensionable age in Scotland is simultaneously projected to increase substantially.

Whilst the projections show that the number of working age people in Scotland is projected to increase, this is at a slower rate than the UK as a whole, and is again driven solely by inward migration, with NRS data showing that the majority of international migrants moving to Scotland are aged between 16 -34. Positive net migration therefore is essential for supporting the size of the working-age population in Scotland, which is crucial for economic growth, public service planning, and community cohesion.

Crucially, the projected figures for levels of migration do not take into consideration steps taken by the UK Government over the last 12 months to significantly reduce net migration which could, without mitigating action, reduce net migration to Scotland to such an extent that the population begins to decline as a consequence. Latest Home Office data shows that UKG measures to curb net migration are already having a significant impact on the number of applicants for multiple visa routes. Scotland’s population, and importantly, its working-age population, will only continue to grow if migration to Scotland is maintained at the current rates. Steps taken by the Home Office to curb overall migration to the whole of the UK are likely to hamper Scotland’s economic prospects and the sustainability of its communities. It is for this reason that our proposals for the White Paper seek to outline proportional, deliverable changes to the immigration system which ensure that Scotland continues to be able to attract and retain migrants whilst the UK Government pursues its strategy to reduce overall migration to the UK as a whole.

While there has under previous Governments been a narrative about the potential negative impact of migration on housing and public services, this does not align with the evidence and the experience of communities across Scotland, particularly in our rural and island communities. In many of these communities migration is essential to the delivery and sustainability of public services and to growing the economy. An underpinning narrative which fails to reflect this experience risks delivering a migration system which will only deliver for certain parts of the UK.

Linking Skills and Migration: the limitations of this approach in Scotland, a country with a population which is projected to decline without continued significant inward migration.

The Scottish Government stands ready to play its role in supporting the UK Government’s strategy to improve skills planning in the UK to better reflect the needs of the labour market, recognising that this is a vital step in delivering positive change for the prospects of people in the UK and growing the economy.

The Scottish Government have repeatedly engaged with the UK Government, including the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), the Home Office, and the Department for Education in a bid to ensure that the ‘quad’ structure is set up to accurately reflect the skills and labour market requirements of the whole of the UK.

However, it must be acknowledged that in Scotland, continued rural depopulation and the continued decline of the domestic population at a national level (as outlined above), mean that work to align skills planning with labour market challenges must be delivered in conjunction with the continuation of tailored migration solutions. Even with robust, targeted, skills and labour market planning, Scotland will lack sufficient numbers of working age individuals to deliver the economic growth that both the Scottish and UK Government are eager to achieve through this approach.

The importance of the use of the immigration system to address local population shortages can be acutely felt in ‘Green Skills’ planning for ‘Green Energy’ infrastructure projects in Scotland.

Research conducted by Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE) and the Highlands and Islands Regional Economic Partnership (HIREP), published in May 2025, has identified significant economic and green energy opportunities for the UK, particularly in offshore wind, green hydrogen, hydro, and other renewable energy projects based in Scotland. The report can be accessed here: Regional Transformational Opportunities research | HIE.

These projects are expected to generate £76.6 billion in Gross Value Added (GVA), comprising £41.7 billion in direct GVA and £34.9 billion in indirect economic benefits. The construction phase alone is projected to create 16,000 jobs annually at peak construction periods. By 2040, 18,000 operational and maintenance jobs are anticipated to be required to support this new sector.

The challenge for those developing these essential Green Energy projects is the need for a substantial workforce uplift to meet demand. The research estimates a peak temporary increase of 16,250 workers by 2027, with a long-term increase of 12,750 workers by 2040. The existing regional construction workforce will not be able to meet this demand.

These projects are being developed and delivered in communities which are most significantly impacted by the structural legacy of outmigration. The demographic challenge for these communities is not about an inability to retain their current population. Like in all communities, there are ebbs and flows within the population, but the demographic structure of these regional communities means that in-migration is required to maintain the working age population. The opportunities which have been identified require an increase in the working age population to fully realise them. Skills planning alone will not sufficiently address projected workforce needs, as the population base to address these vacancies is too limited in size.

It is clear that in order to deliver economic growth and increase the UK’s Green Energy opportunities, the ‘linking’ of skills, labour market policy, and migration must take into account Scotland’s distinct requirements of the immigration system in its design, offering a flexibility of approach to meet the differing needs of countries and regions across the UK.