Sub-Scotland Economic Statistics Group minutes: January 2026

Attendees and apologies

• Scottish Government (SG)
• Aberdeen City Council
• Biggar Economics
• Clyde Gateway
• Glic
• Glasgow City Council
• Comhairle nan Eilean Siar
• Highlands and Islands Enterprise (HIE)
• National Records of Scotland (NRS)
• North Ayrshire Council
• Office for National Statistics (ONS)
• Public Health Scotland (PHS)
• Scottish Enterprise (SE)
• Shetland Islands Council
• Skills Development Scotland (SDS)
• South of Scotland Enterprise (SOSE)
• Strathclyde University/ Fraser of Allander Institute

Items and actions

1. Welcome and Opening Remarks

Dette Cowden (chair), SG

Dette Cowden welcomed attendees and discussed the upcoming consultation on SIC code revisions. Previous actions were discussed:

• Sub‑Scotland Resource Directory—initial links compiled; members invited to submit more; directory to be added to SG website
• bespoke Geographies for GDHI & GVA—action carried over; ONS to accept new geography proposals via data‑zone lists

2. Population Projections

Presenters: Andrew White (NRS)

Powerpoint slides available.            

• projections of the possible future size and structure of the population by local authority or NHS Health Boards between 2022 and 2032, they are based on past trends and are not exact
• Scotland’s population projected to grow modestly to 2032, driven by net migration
• 23 councils projected to grow; 9 projected to decline (Inverclyde and West Dunbartonshire largest decreases)
• natural change remains negative—more deaths than births in all but two council areas 
• ageing population: all councils projected to see increases in pensionable‑age population and most councils are expected to see large increases for 75+
• working age population change is more mixed between councils
• only Midlothian projected to see an increase in child population.
• 2024‑based national projections due in April; sub‑national later in 2026.

Links

Interactive charts

Our website

Contact us: population.migration@nrscotland.gov.uk

Discussion and Q&A

Question was asked about why Midlothian was such an outlier, that might be due to its close proximity to Edinburgh and lots of new building sites with family homes.

Participants were also wondering about publication of the sub-council level projections, but this is being produced by the Improvement Service with NRS only supplying the data.

A comment was made that the turning point for more deaths than births was quite recent (mid 2010s). They were also asked if they distinguish between rest of UK and international migration figures, and they do.

A question was asked about whether small area population estimates for 2023 will be available soon. NRS answered that 2023 and 2024 small area population estimates based on 2011 data zones should be out in February.

3. Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy

Presenter: Anouska Pandya (NRS)

Powerpoint slides available.

• Life Expectancy (LE) statistics are period life expectancies – the average number of years a person would expect to live if they experienced the mortality rate by age and sex for the given area and time period throughout their life
• LE is calculated as a three-year average, latest one is 2022-24
• LE has begun increasing again post‑pandemic and is now closer to pre-pandemic levels; Scotland remains lowest among UK nations
• highest LE: East Renfrewshire, lowest LE: Glasgow City. Over the last decade, highest increase in East Renfrewshire and decrease in North Ayrshire
• LE is generally higher in more rural areas
• Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) is the average number of years of life that people are estimated to spend in good health, based on APS and census data
• HLE continues long‑term decline since 2014-16, it has fallen faster than LE, significant inequalities persist
• HLE at birth was highest in Orkney Islands, Shetland Islands and Perth and Kinross
• HLE at birth was lowest North Lanarkshire and North Ayrshire
• analysis by area deprivation not yet available under new methodology (but will be on 19 February when new HLE deprivation‑based series to be published)

Links:

• latest Life Expectancy publication
• useful more in-depth explanation of the life tables and the calculations behind life expectancy estimates
• HLE 2022-2024 will be published on 19 February 2026

Discussion and Q&A

Participants were curious about data available at a lower level than Local Authorities. NRS are able to create smaller geographies but there might be some limitations, please get in touch.

There was a question about connection of HLE with burden of disease, but that might be more for Public Health Scotland to answer, as the HLE is based on general health.

4. Business and Innovation Statistics Update

Presenter: Marina Curran (SG)

• working on updating the Sub Scotland Economic Statistics Database based on their Businesses in Scotland 2025 publication that was out in December, based on 2011 data zones
• business demography table (business births and deaths), will be available February or March pending ONS data
• need updated 2022 data zone lookups for later this year
• move to open source taking up a lot of resources

Links:

Sub-Scotland Economic Statistics Database - gov.scot

Businesses in Scotland: 2025 - gov.scot

Discussion and Q&A

Suggestions for additions: productivity, life expectancy metrics.

5. Small partner updates

• Skills Development Scotland
  Regional Skills Assessment updated October 2025, provides detailed information on labour markets across the country including labour market forecasts for the next 10 years. Data Matrix updated monthly. Feedback very welcome.

• SG Labour Market Statistics
  Annual Population Survey and ONS Labour Force Survey sample sizes have fallen and the Scottish boost has been discontinued. They are exploring alternative administrative and financial data sources (including a project with Smart Data Foundry with private sector financial data), any feedback would be helpful. Quarterly stakeholder engagement ongoing, next one in February. 

• Office of National Statistics Regional Accounts
  Custom geographies can be built using small‑area building blocks; members may submit data‑zone lists. Small‑area GDHI release scheduled for 25 February 2026, HFCE regional consumption for 26 February. Transition to 2022 data zones later in 2026. GDP/GVA publications delayed to summer 2026; small‑area publication expected Sept–Oct 2026.

6. AOB

• suggestions for future speakers and topics are welcome

• new Code of Practice for Official Statistics (v3.0), SG must publish an Analytical Work Plan.
• next meetings planned: May 2026 and September 2026; in‑person option under consideration.