Offshore wind energy – sectoral marine plan: further research for social impact assessment

Appendix E: Information pack example

3. Evidence by theme

The tables below summarise current evidence on the social and economic impacts of offshore wind farms in Scotland. Information is distinguished based on whether the impact is positive (+) negative (—) or neutral (±) All Information is further divided by whether an impact is predicted/ potential based on modelling or an impact assessment or evidenced by research and comparable case studies. All information presented below is based on the references provided in the annex of this information pack.

Local economy and employment impacts

Potential / predicted impacts:

+ - As a result of construction and installation activities between 2029 and 2033, it is expected that in the East €490 million - E610 million in annual GVA would be generated from offshore wind energy and €410 million - E510 million in the North East The direct positive cost Impacts associated with INTOG are also present in the North East and East, ranging from €180 million - El ,700 million total CVA.

+ - Between 11,000 to 14,000 full-time equivalent jobs (FTE) are expected as a direct result of the offshore Wind energy (OWE) (in any one year over the appraisal timeframe). The largest regional employment Impacts associated with OWE are anticipated In the East. Employment impacts directly resulting from INTOG are between 1,800 to 2,300 FTE. The North East is estimated to have the largest employment impacts associated with INTOG.

- - Potentially negative effects of renewable energy development on aquaculture, fisheries, oil and gas, shipping and tourism. In particular, the negative in-combination impacts on fisheries may Include changes to the cost-revenue profile, conflict with other vessel types, reduced efficiency of operation, increasing carbon emissions and seabed impacts.

- - OWE and INTOG may catalyse job losses across local Industries if their operations are compromised. In particular, a reduction in fish landing would result in a loss of FTE within the fishing industry. It is estimated that 57-81 FTE jobs may be lost through the direct and indirect impacts of OWE, while 6.7-9.6 FTE jobs could be lost as a direct and indirect result of INTOG. This loss of employment could have knock-on effects for associated industries, such as the catching sector and those servicing the industry, such as transportation of landings and logistics. Thereby, those employed in the fishing industry and related sectors not taking up new and higher paid employment opportunities from OWE developments could experience wealth inequality as a result of unemployment.

Evidence from comparable research/ case studies:

± - Studies in Scotland, Wales and Ireland evidence that OWF directly and indirecty impact employment through locally manufactured resources and local construction, operation and maintenance contractors. However, Wider studies conclude that foreign investment tends to outweigh local opportunities during the development phase. For example, the turbine itself composes the largest capital cost and is typically imported, in addition to on-site installation personnel being employed from the turbine manufacturer.

± - The short-term nature of construction related employment is perceived to disadvantage small coastal towns through sudden changes in the job market creating a boom and bust' scenario. While the delivery of training would enable local residents to upskill and become long-term employees With beneficial transferable skills that could improve their employability in the future. For example, the Aberdeen Offshore Wind Farm (OWF) case study revealed that 50% of the construction workers were Dutch which reflected the nationality of the construction contractor and the main benefits of the offshore construction stage were leaked to individuals outside Aberdeen. There is currently no statistical evidence of the long-term employment benefits of the offshore wind industry.

± - A postal survey reveals that neutral or positive attitudes towards offshore renewable energy developments are held by the majority of fishers (81%). The diversification of rural island economies, employment, wealth growth and further socioeconomic benefits were recognised as potential impacts of offshore energy. While further interviews With fishers anticipated a loss of earnings and time through the deployment of marine renewable energy devices in the most productive fishing grounds. The displacement of fishing sites could increase travel distances, spend on fuel and competition. The proximity and awareness of nearby developments is identified as an influence on attitudes. For example, fishers operating from island ports, who are less exposed to current offshore developments, are more likely to have positive attitudes than those living on the mainland, who are likely to live in close proximity to developments. Despite the negative attitudes, the majority of fishers recognise there is a need for offshore renewable energy developments.

Distributional impacts

Potential / predicted impacts:

+ - Higher incomes and increased local spending due to new highly paid jobs could lead to larger disposable income for both local and relocated employees through reducing the net income spent on housing, food and fuel. This employment is also likely to reduce relative poverty after housing costs. A knock-on effect of the rise in disposable income is increased spending on local in-land businesses and improved community sustainability.

- - The offshore wind industry could generate a negative cost of living impact as a result of increased income and in-migration. The uptake of high-paid green jobs could Increase inflationary pressures within local communities and drive up the cost of living. While this impact would be felt across the whole population, disproportionate negative outcomes are likely amongst low-income households and those who do not take up better paid employment consequently, wealth Inequality is anticipated to increase Within coastal communities impacted by new offshore Wind developments.

- - The housing market could consequently face Increasing demand as a result of in-migration relating to OWE employment opportunities. While better paid job creation is a positive social Impact, the increased population within coastal towns is expected to drive up competition and house prices within local markets. Thereby, residents not taking up new or higher paid employment may be priced out of the local housing market and be forced to rely on below standard housing.

Evidence from comparable research/ case studies

± - Empirical studies conclude no significant evidence of house price depreciation as a result of visual OWF's from the property or the nearest beach.

+ - Distributional impacts of OWE developments can occur as a result of energy developers allocating funding to the local community in closest proximity to the scheme, known as Community Benefit Funds'. The level of funding is typically defined by E per megawatt of installed capacity per annum and are spent in response to community needs, for example on sports equipment, social activity, educational opportunities and sustainable energy.

- - However, the scale at which Community Benefits Funds are managed is an important consideration in enabling positive impacts to be shared across the local community. The cost of managing this community funding in small communities could outweigh the funding benefits. Additionally, it is challenging to objectively identify the boundaries that define the locality' of a development and who is eligible to benefit from any benefits provision.