Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission: Describing the Challenge

Describing the Challenge

Scottish prisons: High numbers, pressured conditions

Pressures and challenges in Scottish prisons are well documented. Over the years, they have repeatedly been set out by Audit Scotland, Mental Welfare Commission for Scotland, HM Inspectorate of Prisons for Scotland, and the Scottish Parliament’s Criminal Justice Committee, as well as academics and charities.1, 2 We acknowledge the work that has gone before and we intend to learn from and build on it.

There was also a landmark review of the use of imprisonment in 2008 by the Scottish Prisons Commission (“the McLeish Commission”). Many of the recommendations from that have been progressed, but some areas have not made progress. Key aspects of the nature of the challenge have also changed significantly since then. Previous work has not looked explicitly at the entirety of the sentencing and penal policy framework or taken a holistic approach that encompasses community sentencing, bail and remand, and release arrangements, all of which impact the rates of imprisonment and reoffending.

Focusing on how the entire system operates is essential given the scale of the current challenge. In recent years since the COVID-19 pandemic, courts, prisons and community justice have been impacted by backlogs and waiting lists which have delayed recovery and led to increased workforce pressures for Justice Social Work, prison and NHS staff.

So, what is the context? Scotland’s prison population has increased to an unsustainable level. The average daily prison population has increased by around 22% since 2002-03, rising from an average daily population of 6,453 to 7,860 in 2023-24 (figure 1).3 More recently, Scotland’s prison population reached 8,375 in Feburary 2025.4 It is estimated that the prison population will continue at dangerously high levels or increase, and could be as high as 8,950 in September 2025.5 Further rises would push the system beyond its limit.

Having a prison population this high places significant strain on the prison infrastructure and staff, combined with the increasing challenge of managing a complex population, especially with rising mental health and substance misuse issues. The conditions that those in custody live in are not what they should be. The delivery of rehabilitative programmes and other services which would reduce reoffending are delayed and disrupted and conditions are less safe for prisoners and staff.6 For example, recent Scottish Prison Service (SPS) figures showed 31,110 discipline breaches in 2023-24, up from 24,199 the previous year.7

In 2023, an Irish court refused to extradite a man to Scotland on humanitarian grounds after noting that the prison overcrowding in Scotland was such that he would face “real and substantial risk of inhumane or degrading treatment”. The Scottish Human Rights Commission and UK Preventive Mechanism have also raised concerns with the UN and made recommendations over the years about compliance with anti-torture and human rights conventions in our prisons.2 Scotland’s rate of prison mortality is higher than the European average, at a rate of around 59.4 per 10,000 prisoners.8, 9

Source: Scottish Government (2024) Scottish Prison Population Statistics 2023-24 Bulletin.

Year/Average Prison Population

2002-03: 6453

2003-04: 6606

2004-05: 6776

2005-06: 6856

2006-07: 7187

2007-08: 7376

2008-09: 7827

2009-10: 7964

2010-11: 7854

2011-12: 8179

2012-13: 8057

2013-14: 7894

2014-15: 7731

2015-16: 7676

2016-17: 7552

2017-18: 7464

2018-19: 7789

2019-20: 8198

2020-21: 7339

2021-22: 7504

2022-23: 7422

How Scotland’s imprisonment rate compares to other jurisdictions

Although the numbers fluctuate, for the last five years, Scotland has frequently had one of the highest prison population rates in Western Europe.10 Prison rates in England and Wales are also high and they are encountering similar justice challenges.

It is not possible to square Scotland’s view of itself as a modern, progressive country when at the same time it continues to have a substantially higher prison population than most of our peers in Western Europe (table 1).

Source: World Prison Brief (2025) Europe | World Prison Brief

Figures reflect the most current data available at the time of writing.

Key insights from international comparisons

The Commission is eager to learn from nations that either have lower rates of imprisonment or have significantly reduced their reliance on imprisonment. We acknowledge that often this has taken years to achieve and there have been challenges along the way. There are variations within and among nations, and wider social, economic, political, demographic, and geographic factors affect what happens and what is possible in the field of law and criminal justice.

The following insights and themes should be understood as a summary of what stands out in evidence and experience from other comparable nations in Europe but should not necessarily be taken to be indicative of the Commission’s likely final recommendations, at this stage of doing the independent review. We will set out our own views and recommendations regarding Scotland in due course and may cite specific international case studies in doing so. In learning about comparable nations, a few key insights and themes emerge of what has worked in other countries:

• As an alternative to prosecution, prioritise prevention, mediation, and diversion. Such approaches are evident in nations like the Netherlands, Germany, and Finland.
• Send fewer people to prison. This aim can be pursued in a few ways, including restricting use of remand, sentencing reforms, and diversifying how a custodial sentence can instead be served in communities. It needs to be done in ways which ensure uses of probation and community disposals avoid the unintended consequence of net-widening. Aspects of these approaches are observed in nations like Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland.
• Reduce time spent in prison, limit sentence lengths for certain groups (e.g. young adults) and certain crime types, and reduce the availability of long and life sentences. Smaller prisons and better conditions also help. Some nations have pursued policy and practice reforms limiting breach and recall.
• Release people earlier. Enable well-planned releases and support for social rehabilitation. The Republic of Ireland has interesting examples of sentence remission as well as earlier release through a community return scheme, involving community service and probation supervision.
• Better support health and welfare. Social policy affects penal policy. In the Netherlands, there are tailored approaches for mental health and forensic care that are directly relevant to how they have achieved a sustained reduction in their prison population. The Dutch also have a specific probation service focused on alcohol and drugs.
• Recognise victims’ needs for good information and support throughout sentencing and penal processes. Procedural justice matters. Victim’s rights and access to resources and support are a notable feature of processes in Finland, for example.
• Depoliticise and depolarise sentencing and punishment – in politics, media, and society.

What are the drivers of imprisonment?

Scotland’s high levels of imprisonment cannot be attributed to a single reason; there have been many short and long-term changes in, and influences on, the prison population.11 Complex contributing factors include longer sentences, increased reporting and detection by the Police, longer periods on remand, progression challenges and some of the key policy and legislative developments set out in Annex A; such as the ending of automatic early release in 2015-16.

It is important to note that Scotland’s increasing prison population is not a result of an increase in crime. On the contrary, recorded crime has decreased by 40 percent since 2006-07.12 This has coincided with an overall decrease in convictions and custodial sentences over the past 10 years over all the major categories of crime and offences with the exception of sexual crimes.13 Demographic changes are reflected in both the Scottish crime drop as well as in changes over time in who makes up the prison population.14, 15

As a result, alongside the decline in most types of recorded crime, proceedings, and convictions, there have been substantial changes to the makeup and complexity of Scotland’s prison population.

Who is imprisoned in Scotland?

The prison population increasingly comprises individuals convicted of offences of a violent or sexual nature. Together, those convicted of violent and sexual offences comprised 68% of the sentenced prison population in 2023-24.3 Over the longer term, there has been an overall decline in the average daily prison population serving sentences for crimes of dishonesty and crimes against society.3

The long term prison population (those serving 4 or more years) has grown substantially. The 4-10 year group increased by 41% from 2017-18 and the 10+ year group has grown by 69% since 2012-13.3 Over time, Scotland’s prison population is also getting older. The average age of all in prison increased from 31.4 in 2009-10 to 37.8 in 2023-24. Almost half of prisoners in 2009-10 were under 30, compared to below a quarter in 2023-24. People in prison for violent crime are now more likely to be older than a decade ago.11

The number of people held on remand in prison custody awaiting trial or sentencing in Scotland remains at a considerably higher level than it was pre-pandemic. In April 2025, 2,122 people were remanded in custody, accounting for 22% of the prison population.16 Time spent on remand has increased over time, particularly the longest periods spent on remand. For example, 90% of transitions from remand to the sentenced population occurred with 145 days in 2019-20, compared with 278 days in 2023-24.3 However, short stays on remand also remain at a high level. Such short term imprisonment disrupts families and adversely affects employment and housing.

Alongside rising numbers, the growing complexity of Scotland’s prison population causes challenges for accommodation and the operational running of the prison service. For example, in October 2024 to January 2025, there were an average of 2,317 people in prison with a history of sexual offending; a group which must be housed separate from the mainstream population.17

Some things have remained consistent over decades. Scotland’s prison population is overwhelmingly male. Men have comprised 94-96% of the average daily prison population since 2009-10.3 Evidence shows that the prison population is disproportionately composed of individuals affected by poverty, care experience, substance use issues, and mental health challenges.18, 19