- 19 Dec 2019
Many users of Scottish economic statistics have suggested that estimates of Scottish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should be complemented by estimates of Gross National Income (GNI). GNI is an adjustment to the conventional GDP measure of economic activity to take account of financial flows into and out of the country due to ownership. For example, where profits made by Scottish companies outside Scotland are repatriated, this would be included in an estimate of Scottish GNI but is not included in Scottish GDP. Likewise, when non-Scottish companies repatriate profits made in Scotland, this is included in Scottish GDP but would be deducted from estimates of Scottish GNI.
An estimate of Scottish GNI for 2010 was published in 2013. This work was published as experimental statistics and has not been updated since.
The current project uses similar methods and assumptions, but uses an updated model which allows for more timely results and for more regular updates. The model is based on a quarterly data, with the majority of the UK data taken from the quarterly UK Economic Accounts, and much of the Scottish data used for apportionments are consistent with the Quarterly National Accounts for Scotland publication.
All results in this paper are designated as experimental statistics. These are defined as new official statistics undergoing development and testing. The methods, data sources and results in this paper are open for ongoing consultation with users, and we welcome feedback on all aspects of the release. All users should be aware that the results in this paper are provisional and will be revised and updated when further developments are made. They should therefore be used with appropriate caution at this time.
Note that much of the attention in this project to date has been for the years 2010 to 2016. The results prior to 2010 have been derived using similar apportionment techniques, however these estimates have not had the same levels of scrutiny. Care should be taken when analysing longer term trends.
Update (December 2018)
An updated paper containing new estimates of GNI for Scotland has been published.
The purpose of the update is to incorporate the latest available data (incuding the UK Pink Book 2018, the UK Economic Accounts for 2018 Q2 and the Quarterly National Accounts for Scotland for 2018 Q2) and to demonstrate that the methodology can be used to provide regular annual estimates for Scotland.
The paper includes revised figures for 1998-2016 and a new GNI estimate for 2017. New financial year estimates for 1998/99 to 2017/18 are also available in the additional tables. All results in this paper are designated as experimental statistics. These are defined as new official statistics undergoing development and testing. The methods, data sources and results in this paper are open for ongoing consultation with users, and we welcome feedback on all aspects of the release.
We welcome any thoughts or views on this analysis.
Please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
or write to:
The Scottish Government
National Accounts Unit
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser – Economic Analysis
St Andrew’s House
You can also follow us on Twitter to keep up to date with the economic statistics and wider economic analysis published by the Scottish Government.