17 The ONS notes that the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates have been affected by increased volatility, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, meaning that estimates should be treated with caution, and are working towards an online-first Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), which is viewed as the long-term solution to the falling response rate.

18 Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics

19 Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics

20 In May 2024, the Department for Work and Pensions increased the administrative earnings threshold for full work search conditionality. This change affected around 180,000 claimants in the UK, increasing the Claimant Count at the time of the change.

21 Textkernel new online job adverts - Office for National Statistics

22 Business and innovation statistics - gov.scot

23 Earnings and employment from Pay as You Earn Real Time Information, seasonally adjusted - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

24 Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - June 2025 | Bank of England

25 Economy statistics - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)

26 UK Consumer confidence up two points in June to -18 - NIQ

27 Retail sales, Great Britain - Office for National Statistics

28 OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1 | OECD

29 Forecasts for the UK economy - GOV.UK

30 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – May 2025 | Scottish Fiscal Commission

31 FAI Economic Commentary | FAI

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