Publication - Research and analysis
Scottish economic bulletin: July 2025
Provides a summary of latest key economic statistics, forecasts and analysis on the Scottish economy.
Data and Forecasts Summary
| Indicator | Latest Data | Next Release | Timeseries | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | June | |||
| GDP (3-month rolling %) | -0.2% (April) | 30 July | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.2 | n/a | n/a |
| Unemployment (%) | 4.2% (Feb- Apr) | 17 July | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | n/a | n/a |
| Real Earnings (YoY %) | 1.9% (May) |
17 July | 4.6 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | n/a |
| Inflation Rate (CPI YoY %) | 3.4% (May) |
16 July | 2.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 | n/a |
| BoE Base Rate (%) | 4.25% (June) |
7 August | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| Consumer Sentiment (Index) | -5.5 (May) | 30 July | -7.3 | -2.1 | -5.7 | -5.7 | -8.0 | -14.3 | -5.5 | n/a |
| Indicator | Organsiation | Date of Forecast | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (YoY %) | SFC | May 2025 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Unemployment (%) | SFC | May 2025 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Nominal Average Earnings (YoY %) | SFC | May 2025 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Inflation (4Q rate in Q4) | BoE | May 2025 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.8 | n/a |
Contact
Email: economic.statistics@gov.scot