Scottish Crime and Justice Survey 2023/24: Main findings

Comparisons with other statistical sources of crime and victimisation

What sources can the SCJS be compared to?

This chapter presents comparisons of the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) to two other main sources of crime victimisation data.

The first is Recorded Crime in Scotland, which provides information on the number of crimes and offences recorded by the police in Scotland.

The second is the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), which is similar to the SCJS with both following on from the British Crime Survey (BCS). Although there are some differences between the surveys, for example the coding of crimes varies between the SCJS and the CSEW to reflect the different criminal justice systems in which they operate, the overall results on the proportion of adults experiencing crime have offered a broad comparison point over the years.

How does the SCJS compare to Police Recorded Crime?

This section compares the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) and police recorded crime. It examines the scale of the difference between the volume of property and violent crimes that are recorded by the police and the level of those crimes that are estimated by the SCJS to be experienced by the adult population living in private households in Scotland.

A range of information is provided based on analysis of a sub-set of comparable property and violent crimes.[1] This sub-set is made up of three broadly comparable categories from both sources: violent crime, acquisitive crime and vandalism.[2] These crimes are coded in the survey in approximately the same way as they would be recorded by the police.

The comparable crime group excludes fraud and computer misuse as only a very small proportion (9.5% in 2023/24, as detailed in the Fraud and computer misuse chapter) of these incidents are reported to the police. This follows a similar approach to the Crime Survey for England and Wales.[3]

The first part of this chapter examines trends in these two sources over time, with a focus on each broad category. This is followed by a comparison of police recorded crime with the proportion of SJCS property and violent crimes estimated to have been reported to the police. A comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of each source is included at the end of this section.

What are the trends in comparable SCJS and police recorded crime?

Of the 661,000 property and violence crimes estimated by the 2023/24 SCJS, around three-fifths (396,000) can be compared with police recorded crimes. Figure 6.1 demonstrates the scale of the difference between the two series of crime statistics. In 2023/24, the police recorded 115,266 crimes and offences[4] in the comparable sub-set, representing approximately three-tenths (29%) of the number of crimes in the SCJS comparable sub-set.

Figure 6.1: Both the SCJS and police recorded crime show a long-term decrease in the number of property and violent crimes, but the SCJS has seen an increase since the previous year.

Comparable recorded crime and SCJS estimates, 2008/09 to 2023/24.

There are a number of reasons for the difference between these two sources, including that SCJS estimates tend to be higher than recorded crime figures because the survey is able to capture crime which does not come to the attention of the police. SCJS respondents were asked if the police came to know about an incident and found that around two-fifths (41%) of all crime in the comparable sub-set came to the attention of the police in 2023/24.

Both the SCJS and police recorded crime provide evidence of large decreases in crime in Scotland over the longer term. As shown in Table 6.1, the SCJS estimates that the volume of comparable crime fell by 46% between 2008/09 and 2023/24, whilst comparable recorded crime is down by 47% over the same period.

Since 2021/22, comparable recorded crime fell by 1% whilst SCJS comparable crime increased by 38%. However, when comparing with the pre-covid position in 2019/20, comparable recorded crime fell by 7% while comparable SCJS crime shows no change over that period.

Table 6.1: Since 2008/09 comparable SCJS and police recorded crime figures have both fallen by around a half but have shown slightly differing patterns in recent years.

Comparable crime group estimates (2008/09, 2019/20 to 2023/24).

Sources: SCJS; Police recorded crime

Note: changes in SCJS results specified were statistically significant.

Acquisitive crime

The acquisitive comparable crime group includes bicycle theft, housebreaking and theft of a motor vehicle. In 2023/24 the SCJS estimated that there were 33,000 acquisitive crimes (+/- 11,000, meaning that the true number of acquisitive crimes experienced by the population is estimated to be between 22,000 and 45,000[5]). The police recorded 12,952 acquisitive crimes in 2023/24.

Both SCJS estimates and recorded acquisitive crime figures decreased between 2008/09 and 2023/24 (by 48% and 53% respectively). Since 2021/22, the SCJS detects no change in the volume of acquisitive crime, and police recorded acquisitive crime decreased by 1%. Where SCJS estimates are based on the experiences of a relatively small number of people, it can often be challenging to detect significant changes between adjacent survey years.[6]

Violent crime

Violent comparable crime includes serious assault, minor assault[7] and robbery. In 2023/24, the SCJS estimates that there were 231,000 violent crimes (+/- 61,000, meaning that the true number of violent crimes experienced by the population is estimated to be between 170,000 and 292,000), while the police recorded 64,439.

Table 6.1 shows that the two sources of comparable violent crime data saw decreases over the longer term. Between 2008/09 and 2023/24, both SCJS estimates and police recorded violent crime figures have shown a decrease (27% and 22% respectively).[8] Since 2021/22, the SCJS has seen a large year-on-year change, with an increase of 73%, whilst police recorded violence increased by 2%.

Further information on SCJS violent crime is provided in the Violent crime chapter.

Vandalism

The vandalism comparable crime group includes motor vehicle vandalism and property vandalism. In 2023/24, the SCJS estimated that there were 131,000 instances of vandalism (+/- 24,000, meaning that the true number of vandalism crimes experienced by the population is estimated to be between 107,000 and 155,000), while the police recorded 37,875 vandalism crimes in 2023/24.

The trends in comparable crimes of vandalism across both the SCJS and police recorded crime between 2008/09 and 2023/24 are similar – with the SCJS showing a decrease of 63% and police recorded crime showing a decrease of 64%. Since 2021/22 there has been no change in the SCJS estimate of vandalism, while crimes of vandalism recorded by the police have fallen by 6%.

Comparing police recorded crime against the volume of SCJS crime estimated to have been reported to the police

SCJS respondents are asked whether the police ‘came to know about’ the crime, either from them or somebody else. This allows comparisons to be made between comparable crime estimated to have been reported to the police in the SCJS (i.e. a sub-set of comparable crime), and police recorded crime figures.

Although it is not possible to determine on an individual basis whether a crime that the police ‘came to know about’ was captured in police recorded crime data, this type of analysis can give an indication of the level of crime that goes unrecorded, as well as the broad relationship between police recorded crime figures and SCJS estimates.

Figures from the 2023/24 SCJS indicate that of the 396,000 property and violent crimes in the overall sub-set, around 161,000 (41%) were estimated to have been reported to the police. Figure 6.2 displays the difference by volume between SCJS comparable crimes estimated to be reported to the police (as a sub-set of all SCJS crime) and police recorded crime for all years since 2008/09.

Figure 6.2: In 2023/24, the SCJS estimates that 72% of comparable crime reported to the police was recorded by the police.

Recorded crime, SCJS crime and SCJS crime reported to the police, in the sub-set of comparable crimes, 2008/09 to 2023/24.

Sources: SCJS, Police recorded crime

In 2023/24, the police recorded 115,266 crimes in the comparable category. It is therefore estimated that 72% of comparable SCJS crime estimated to be reported to the police was recorded by the police in 2023/24. This figure is similar to all survey years from 2008/09 with the exception of 2021/22, which ranged from 70% to 86%. In 2021/22, the number of comparable crimes recorded by the police was higher than the proportion of comparable SCJS crimes which were estimated to have been reported to the police. In Chapter 6 of the 2021/22 main findings report we suggested some caution around this figure, in part due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Strengths and limitations of the SCJS and police recorded crime data

There are a number of differences between the SCJS and police recorded crime data that are important to bear in mind when making comparisons between the two sources.

Police recorded crime captures a broad range of crimes that are recorded by the police. It provides a good measure of crimes that are reported to and recorded by the police and is particularly useful for lower volume crimes that are challenging for sample surveys of the population to capture. Police recorded crime is used to develop and evaluate measures put in place to reduce crime, and to assess the performance of policing and criminal justice organisations. However, this data is sensitive to changes in recording practices and police activity, and does not include information about crimes that are not reported to, or recorded by, the police.

In March 2021, Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary in Scotland (HMICS) published the results from their 2020 audit of incidents and crimes recorded by Police Scotland, with the report stating that ‘the results show that compliance is generally good, however there is still room for improvement’.

Crime surveys allow a wider assessment of the overall level of crime and likelihood of experiencing crime. They also provide a range of additional information, for example on the characteristics of crime, the relative likelihood of experiencing crime across the population and on repeat victimisation. However, surveys are often not as good at picking up some rarer crimes, crimes where there is no specific victim (for example, speeding), or where the victim is not covered by the survey sample (for example, crimes against businesses and children).

As well as these differences, the SCJS and police recorded crime also cover different timescales. The Recorded Crime in Scotland statistics cover crimes recorded by police over a 12 month period whereas the 2023/24 SCJS includes crimes experienced by SCJS respondents over a 21 month ‘reference period’.[9] The recorded crime dataset used for comparison is Recorded Crime in Scotland 2023/24, which covers crimes recorded between 1 April 2023 and 31 March 2024, making it the dataset which best aligns with the latest fieldwork period.

How does the SCJS compare with the Crime Survey for England and Wales?

Victimisation surveys are conducted globally to gather data on crime experiences, but comparing results can be challenges due to methodological differences. That said, the SCJS is similar to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW). Although there are some differences between the surveys, for example the coding of crimes varies between the SCJS and the CSEW to reflect the different criminal justice systems in which they operate, the overall results on the proportion of adults experiencing crime have offered a broad comparison point over the years.

Following updates to the methodology used in the CSEW to produce elements for the volume of crime experienced by the adult population, we assess that the results on overall victimisation rate remain broadly comparable between the two surveys. A short methodological paper is available which confirms the approach currently taken to produce crime estimates in the SCJS and its relative strengths and limitations.

Further information on the similarities and differences between the SCJS and CSEW are provided in the SCJS 2021/22 Technical Report.

In 2023/24, the latest comparable survey period, overall crime victimisation rates in Scotland (including fraud and computer misuse) were higher to those in England and Wales (19.9% and 16.1%).

When looking at property and violent crimes alone, the rate in Scotland was also higher than in England and Wales (12.1% compared to 10.1%). This is a change to the position in 2021/22, when both areas had a similar victimisation rate and 2019/20, when Scotland had a lower rate (11.9% compared to 13.3%).

As shown in Figure 6.3, property and violent crime victimisation in both areas have fallen significantly over the longer term, with Scotland often below England and Wales. This is the first time that the surveys have suggested Scotland has a higher rate, as a result of the CSEW not finding a similar increase to that found by the SCJS in 2023/24. However, it is important to note that these findings are based on a single year and future surveys will be required to determine if this represents a new trend.

Figure 6.3: Victimisation rates in Scotland and England & Wales have both fallen over the long term to similar levels in the latest comparable period.

Proportion of adults experiencing crime measured by SCJS and CSEW, 2008/09 to 2023/24.

Variable: PREVSURVEYCRIME.

CSEW prevalence – Base: year ending March 2024 (30,847)