Scotland's Labour Market Insights: February 2025

Key Points

The Scottish Government’s Labour Market Trends mainly reports on headline Office for National Statistics (ONS) Labour Force Survey estimates for Scotland.

This Scotland’s Labour Market Insights report contains more detailed estimates describing those who are employed, unemployed or economically inactive as well as information from vacancy and business insights sources.

People in work

• an estimated 11.4% of employees aged 18 and over earned less than the real living wage in 2024
• the 65 and over age group has seen the largest percentage growth in payrolled employees over the year to December 2024
• over the year to October 2024, payrolled employee growth varied by industry sector. The Energy, production and supply industry sector has shown the largest percentage growth in payrolled employees over the year
• real median earnings for payrolled employees, adjusted for inflation (using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)), have grown by 1.2 per cent over the year to December 2024

People not in work

• the majority of unemployed people aged 16 and over have been unemployed for less than six months
• “long-term sick or disabled” was reported as the main reason for being economically inactive in Scotland, reported by 33.5 per cent of inactive people in October 2023 to September 2024. This is the highest proportion in the October to September time series
• in October 2023 to September 2024, an estimated 16.4 per cent of people aged 16 to 64 who were inactive reported that they wanted to work, the lowest proportion in the October to September series

People moving into work

• the number of new online job adverts in Scotland in November 2024 was 39,575, similar to the level seen for November 2023
• ONS’ Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) data shows that an estimated 23.1 per cent of businesses reported experiencing difficulties in recruiting employees in December 2024
• No One Left Behind (NOLB) is a strategic approach to employability delivery in Scotland.  A total of 73,470 people started receiving support through No One Left Behind from April 2019 to September 2024

Important information in relation to data sources

The ONS Labour Force Survey is not a large and robust enough sample to produce reliable estimates for smaller groups of the population. There has also recently been increased volatility in Labour Force Survey estimates, further information is available in the ONS Labour Force Survey: planned improvements and its reintroduction estimates methodology article.

The ONS Annual Population Survey (APS) combines results from the ONS Labour Force Survey (LFS) with the English, Welsh and Scottish LFS boosts, providing a larger sample for smaller groups of the population.

ONS have recently conducted analysis to assess the impact of falling sample sizes over recent years on the quality of APS estimates. ONS state that although the APS estimates are robust at National and headline regional level, there are concerns with the quality of estimates for smaller groups of the population, for example local authority level estimates. This assessment of the APS estimates alongside the fact that APS estimates have not been reweighted to new population estimates has led ONS, in agreement with the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), to temporarily suspend the accreditation of all APS-based outputs. Further details on this can be found in the exchange between ONS and OSR:

Michael Keoghan to Siobhan Tuohy-Smith: Request to suspend APS accreditation – Office for Statistics Regulation (statisticsauthority.gov.uk)

It is still appropriate to use the APS estimates included in this release. However, users are advised to note the increased uncertainty around these estimates in recent years.

We will continue to be transparent with our users around the quality of the APS estimates used within our releases by providing guidance on the use and limitations of the data. Due to the falling sample sizes in recent years, please note the increased uncertainty around the estimates included in this release which can be assessed using the confidence intervals provided.

We will continue to assess the quality of APS estimates included within our publications and provide updates to our users.

For further information, please see the statement published by the Chief Statistician on 14th November 2024 discussing the APS and what the Scottish Government are doing next.