Scotland's Labour Market Insights: April 2025

Key Points

The Scottish Government’s Labour Market Trends mainly reports on headline Office for National Statistics (ONS) Labour Force Survey estimates for Scotland.

This Scotland’s Labour Market Insights report contains more detailed estimates describing those who are employed, unemployed or economically inactive as well as information from vacancy and business insights sources.

People in work

• the estimated disability employment rate gap decreased from 37.4 percentage points (pp) in January to December 2016 to 31.3 pp in January to December 2024
• the minority ethnic employment rate gap was estimated at 10.3 pp in January to December 2024. The employment rate for the minority ethnic groups has been continually lower than the employment rate for white groups across the series
• the 35 to 49 age group saw the largest growth in payrolled employees over the year to March 2025 while the 65 and over age group saw the largest percentage growth in payrolled employees over the year to March 2025
• real median earnings for payrolled employees, adjusted for inflation (using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)), have grown by 1.9% over the year to March 2025
• in Scotland, between December 2023 and December 2024, payrolled employments held by non-EU nationals increased by 23,800 (14.6%) while payrolled employments held by UK and EU nationals decreased by 26,900 (-1.2%) and 2,400 (-1.7%), respectively

People not in work

• the majority of unemployed people aged 16 and over have been unemployed for less than six months
• “long-term sick or disabled” was the main reason given by respondents to the survey for being economically inactive in Scotland. In January to December 2024, an estimated 33.7% of inactive people gave their reason for being inactive as “long-term sick or disabled”. This is the highest proportion in the January to December time series
• in January to December 2024, an estimated 16.8% of people aged 16 to 64 who were inactive reported that they wanted to work

People moving into work

• the number of new online job adverts in Scotland in March 2025 was 47,605, around 6,000 higher than in March 2024
• ONS’ Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) data shows that an estimated 25.2% of businesses reported experiencing difficulties in recruiting employees in February 2025
• No One Left Behind (NOLB) is a strategic approach to employability delivery in Scotland.  A total of 73,470 people started receiving support through No One Left Behind from April 2019 to September 2024

Important information in relation to data sources

The ONS Labour Force Survey is not a large and robust enough sample to produce reliable estimates for smaller groups of the population. There has also recently been increased volatility in Labour Force Survey estimates, further information is available in the ONS Labour Force Survey: planned improvements and its reintroduction estimates methodology article.

The ONS Annual Population Survey (APS) combines results from the ONS Labour Force Survey (LFS) with the local LFS boosts, providing a larger sample for smaller groups of the population.

ONS have recently conducted analysis to assess the impact of falling sample sizes over recent years on the quality of APS estimates. ONS state that although the APS estimates are robust at National and headline regional level, there are concerns with the quality of estimates for smaller groups of the population, for example local authority level estimates. This assessment of the APS estimates alongside the fact that APS estimates have not been reweighted to new population estimates has led ONS, in agreement with the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), to temporarily suspend the accreditation of all APS-based outputs. Further details on this can be found in the exchange between ONS and OSR:

Michael Keoghan to Siobhan Tuohy-Smith: Request to suspend APS accreditation – Office for Statistics Regulation (statisticsauthority.gov.uk)

It is still appropriate to use the APS estimates included in this release. However, users are advised to note the increased uncertainty around these estimates in recent years.

We will continue to be transparent with our users around the quality of the APS estimates used within our releases by providing guidance on the use and limitations of the data. On 14 November 2024, the Chief Statistician published a statement on the ONS Annual Population Survey which noted our intention to publish our own quality assessment of the APS data.

Due to the falling sample sizes in recent years, the increased uncertainty around the estimates included in this release which can be assessed using the confidence intervals provided. We have assessed the quality of the estimates included in this release using the current ONS Measuring and reporting reliability of Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey estimates guidance.

On 2 April 2025, we published the first phase of our Scottish Government’s Quality Assessment of the Office for National Statistics Labour Force Survey and Annual Population Survey data for Scotland which includes a detailed assessment of the APS estimates included in this release.

Based on the current data quality rules and data confidence ratings we considered as part of our quality assessment of the APS data, the estimates remain robust and are of high or moderate confidence unless otherwise stated.

High confidence indicates that the estimates can be used to draw accurate conclusions and there is substantial trust in the information presented, which is likely to provide a good reflection of reality.

Moderate confidence indicates that estimates are a suitable, but incomplete, measure of reality and conclusions can be drawn but limitations should be understood.

We will continue to assess the quality of APS estimates included within our publications and provide updates to our users.