Scotland's Climate Change Plan 2026-2040: strategic environmental assessment

4. The Findings of the SEA

4.1. Overall findings

4.1.1 Scotland’s rich natural and cultural environment, protected sites and diverse landscapes face ongoing environmental pressures. The SEA Environmental Report highlighted that biodiversity is declining in line with global trends, and while air, soil and water quality are generally good, pollution remains an issue in some areas, particularly from diffuse urban and rural sources. The State of Nature Report^[19] published in 2023 highlights that Scottish wildlife has decreased on average by 15% since 1994, while the distribution of 47% of flowering plants has decreased since 1970. The report also states that one in nine (11%) Scottish species are threatened with extinction and that Scotland’s seabirds have declined by 49% between 1986 and 2019. In their consultation response to the Environmental Report, NatureScot highlight that there has been substantial loss of habitat to factors like drainage and the subsequent loss of functioning floodplains and wetlands. NatureScot also highlight issues surrounding terrestrial systems including soil and geodiversity issues and notes the cross dependency between biotic and abiotic processes to secure healthy ecosystems.

4.1.2 These environmental qualities are closely linked to public health and wellbeing. Climate change is expected to worsen flood risk, increase water scarcity and accelerate biodiversity loss. Scotland’s land is largely used for agriculture and forestry, which, alongside high-quality landscapes and natural resources, forms a major national asset. The historic environment is extensive and varied, with most heritage assets being undesignated rather than formally protected.

4.2. Sectoral findings

4.2.1 Buildings (Residential and Public): The Environmental Report notes overall positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, air quality, and population and human health. The use of synthetic insulation materials, which have a high carbon footprint during production, may offset some of the positive effects for climatic factors. Potential localised negative effects were identified for biodiversity, soil and water. The cumulative impact of renewable technologies like solar panels and heat pumps may alter landscapes and affect the appearance of cultural heritage assets.

4.2.2 Transport: The Environmental Report notes overall positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, air quality, and population and human health. Mixed effects are anticipated for material assets as greater pressure may be put on the electricity grid from the expansion of electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure, requiring upgrades to be made to facilitate this transition. There is the potential for negative impacts on biodiversity and landscape depending on the source of biomass required to produce Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and the harvesting practices utilised.

4.2.3 Waste: The Environmental Report notes positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, material assets, cultural heritage, landscape, air and biodiversity through various circular economy initiatives, improved waste services, and extended producer responsibility policies. Localised negative effects on soil may arise from the construction and operation of new waste facilities.

4.2.4 Energy Supply: The Environmental Report notes overall positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, air quality, population and human health and material assets. Integrating Energy from Waste (EfW) facilities into heat networks requires careful planning and coordination with local authorities and energy providers. It is assumed that existing regulatory regimes will ensure that any development projects will be subject to appropriate controls, minimising the potential for any negative impacts from such schemes.

4.2.5 Business and Industrial Process: The Environmental Report notes overall positive effects are anticipated for air, climatic factors, population and human health, and material assets. Potential negative effects were identified for biodiversity, landscape, and cultural heritage associated with retrofitting of industrial buildings and infrastructure changes for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).

4.2.6 Agriculture: The Environmental Report notes positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, soils, biodiversity, water, air quality, population and human health, material assets and landscapes. The effects of investigating and encouraging uptake of technologies for alternative, improved or more efficient fertilisers are considered to be uncertain as the level of uptake cannot yet be determined due to the early-stage of technological understanding. In undertaking this assessment it has been assumed that nature friendly farming may include practices such as growing organic produce and reduced tillage.

4.2.7 Land use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF): The Environmental Report notes positive effects are anticipated for climatic factors, soils, and biodiversity, primarily through peatland restoration, rewetting, and improved monitoring. Additional benefits for water, material assets, and population and human health may arise from peatlands’ water storage function. Potential negative effects on landscape and material assets could occur due to land use conflicts, such as the loss of productive agricultural land for woodland creation or peatland restoration.

4.2.8 In summary, the Environmental Report finds mostly positive environmental and health effects across all sectors, particularly for climatic factors, air quality, and population and human health. Buildings, transport, energy supply, business, waste, agriculture, and land use measures are expected to reduce emissions and support circular and nature-friendly practices, though localised or sector-specific negative effects may occur. These include potential impacts on biodiversity, soils, water, landscapes, and cultural heritage from new infrastructure, material use, land take, or biomass sourcing, as well as pressure on material assets such as electricity grids. While most effects are positive, some uncertainties remain where technologies or practices are still emerging, and careful planning and regulation are needed to avoid or minimise adverse local impacts.