Scotland's draft Climate Change Plan 2026-2040: island communities impact assessment

3. Key issues and evidence

3.1.1 Introduction

The Islands (Scotland) Act 2018 defines an island community as a community of two or more people, all of whom live permanently on the island with a common interest, identity or geography (including in relation to any uninhabited island whose natural environment and terrestrial, marine and associated ecosystems contribute to the natural or cultural heritage or economy of an inhabited island).There are almost 100 populated islands within Scotland with a total island population of 103,700 which is just 2% of the population of Scotland (Census 2011).^[i]

Population decline is a real threat to the sustainability of many, but not all, of Scotland’s Island communities. Through depopulation and the aging of the current island population, many islands are projected to see significant decreases in the numbers of children and working-age people. Older and younger age groups have distinct experiences of island life, and a young person’s views can contrast with those of an older person living in the same island group.^[ii]

The impacts of climate change may be felt more strongly in islands and wider mainland coastal communities, where more extreme weather conditions and rising sea levels may make islands and coastal communities more prone to coastal flooding, coastal erosion, and droughts, although this can equally apply to the mainland. The sensitive management of moorland, peat and field margins provides additional biodiversity and environmental benefits within the islands. Meanwhile crofting, which is the main type of farming activity in the islands and is more small scale than large scale farming and mostly revolves around livestock production. Crofting can also bring additional benefits to our island communities in terms of population retention, food security, nature restoration and tourism.

None of the 20% most deprived areas according to the Scottish Index of Deprivation (2020) are located on islands; however, deprivation is experienced differently between people living in rural and urban parts of the country. Evidence suggests that people living in rural areas (including island communities) may experience deprivation differently from those living in towns and cities. Particular issues include:

• higher consumption of fuel for heating and transport;
• less accessible key services including healthcare, childcare and broadband; and,
• limited opportunities to earn adequate income compared to urban areas.

According to the Annual Population Survey residents of Scotland’s islands remain more likely to be self-employed (13%) or part-time employees (16%) than the Scottish average (11.8% and 13% respectively)^[7]. The key industries include agriculture, forestry and fishing’ (7% compared with 2% for Scotland), Construction (11%) and ‘Skilled trades occupations’ (21%). Across Scotland, tourism accounts for 1 in 12 jobs, while rural and island communities, particularly areas such as Argyll and Bute, rely more heavily on tourism than some of Scotland’s other regions. The proportion of island residents working in the ‘Services’ sector increased from 70% in 2001 to 74% in 2011. Nearly a tenth (9 per cent) of employed islanders worked 60 hours or more per week, compared with 5 per cent in Scotland. This may in part reflect the higher proportion of people on the islands who were self-employed.

However, in 2020, the average gross annual pay for the local authority areas that contain islands are significantly lower than the average for Scotland (£30,097) (ONS, 2021). The average across the local authority areas is £27,002, which is a difference of just over 10%. Typically, the minimum cost of living in remote rural Scotland ranges between 10% and 40% more than the equivalent in urban Britain. The three principal sources of this premium are:

• the higher prices that households must pay for food, clothes and household goods; higher household fuel bills, influenced by climate and fuel sources; and
• the longer distances that people have to routinely travel, particularly to work.

These higher living costs threaten the sustainability of local communities by making it harder for people from a range of backgrounds and ages to live there at an acceptable standard.

The JTC recognises that rural and islands communities are especially vulnerable to changes to the cost of heating and household fuel bills due to the prevalence of housing stock with poor energy efficiency in these areas, combined with limited choice of feasible heating systems.

Fuel poverty levels are typically higher in rural small towns than in urban areas. Data shows that while an average of 24% of Scotland residents were in fuel poverty, seven local authorities had significantly higher fuel poverty rates than the national average, with approximately a third of residents experiencing fuel poverty in Argyll and Bute (32%), Highland (33%), Orkney Islands (31%) and Shetland Islands (31%) councils. This rose to as high as 40% of residents in Na h-Eileanan Siar^[8],.^[iii]

The cost of transport on islands is much higher, relative to income, than in the rest of Scotland. Public transport services in rural areas often involve long journeys, sparse bus timetables and expensive tickets, in comparison to urban areas. In addition, integrated ticketing is not always available, meaning that multiple tickets are required, further adding to price and complexity. Owning a car is therefore seen as a solution; however, for low-income families, car ownership may be pushing them into poverty due to maintenance costs and higher fuel prices.

Small low-lying islands are also under threat from climate change and at risk from rises in sea-levels. Climate change is expected to increase instances of flooding and coastal erosion, whilst simultaneously negatively affecting water supply, food production, health, tourism, and accelerating habitat depletion. Additionally, the majority of island economies are highly dependent on outside sources for food, fuel, and even employment, which together increase the economic fragility of many islands.

According to the 2023 Scottish Islands Survey, one-third of islanders report living with a mental or physical health condition. While overall prevalence is lower than the national average, the burden is higher among lower-income residents, nearly half of whom report a health issue.

The recent cost-of-living crisis has added pressure on island communities, with households less likely to manage financially and more likely to worry about essentials like heating and hot water. Many challenges faced by island communities are also seen in rural mainland areas.

Rural Scotland accounts for about 17% of the population, with 6% in remote rural areas and 11% in accessible rural areas. These areas have an older demographic, particularly among those aged 65 and over, reflecting a pattern of retirement migration.

Health outcomes are generally better in rural areas, with female life expectancy around 83 years (2 years higher than the national average) and male life expectancy around 79.5 years (3 years higher). However, access to essential services remains limited: only 22% in accessible rural areas and 29% in remote rural areas live within a 15-minute public transport journey to a shopping centre, and fewer than half can reach a GP within 15 minutes, compared to 92% nationally.