Scotland's draft climate Change Plan 2026-2040: Fairer Scotland Duty assessment

4. Assessment of Impacts

4.1 Introduction

This section uses the evidence presented in the previous section to assess how the Scottish Government has paid due regard to the Fairer Scotland Duty in the development of the draft CCP and how the draft CCP potentially impacts on socio-economically disadvantaged groups.

This section has been structured as follows:

4.2 Rationale for Change

4.2.1 Draft CCP: Totality

There is overwhelming scientific consensus that we are living with the effects of significant global climate change, driven predominantly by anthropogenic Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. Unchecked this, for example, leads to rising temperatures and sea levels, extreme weather, damaged ecosystems and reduced productivity of crops. Coordinated global action is needed to rapidly reduce GHG emissions and reach net zero, and so mitigate the potentially catastrophic effects of climate change on the environment and economies across the world. Simultaneously we must adapt to the impacts of climate change which are already happening as a result of historic emissions and ensure that action also supports wider environmental sustainability, such as biodiversity, water quality and availability of raw materials.

Setting long-term targets to reduce GHG emissions also helps to secure long-term economic security and prosperity, globally and in Scotland. While there is inherent uncertainty around estimates of the long-term impact of climate change, at global level it is clear that the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action. The UK Climate Change Committee finds that some adaptation actions such as surveillance and water efficiency labelling have very high benefit-to-cost ratios (10:1 or greater)^[28]. Without government intervention, individual efforts to mitigate climate change are very unlikely to be sufficient.

It is likely that the “do nothing” approach to the climate change mitigation would disproportionately adversely impact socio-economically disadvantaged groups living in Scotland. In particular:

• Productivity of agriculture – climate change poses a number of threats from the more variable and extreme weather to the spread of pests and diseases. This would increase the cost and quality of agricultural output and household food. This could disproportionately and negatively impact socio-economically disadvantaged groups within communities who are more likely to face relative poverty and increase inequalities in accessing healthy, nutritious and affordable food, impacting on their diet, health and wellbeing. It could impact on wider communities through reduced economic stability, growth, jobs and on wider public health and wellbeing.
• Availability and quality of water – as the climate warms and rainfall patterns change, there may be increased competition for water between households, agriculture, industry and the needs of the natural environment. Summer droughts may become more frequent and more severe causing problems for water quality and supply. The correlation with socio-economic circumstance could mean that inequalities with regards to access to water for those on the lowest incomes.
• Increased risk of flooding – with climate change likely to alter rainfall patterns and bring more heavy downpours, flood risk is expected to increase in the future. This could impact on properties and infrastructure – with serious consequences for people, heritage, businesses and communities. Those from socioeconomically disadvantaged groups are less resilient and could be prone to displacement.
• Increased risk of wildfires – the changing climate heightens the risk of wildfire across Scotland, as we have seen throughout recent years. Wildfires release carbon into the atmosphere, can damage or destroy sensitive and rare habitats, can kill species and pose a significant risk to people and property. Wildfires may have a disproportionate impact on Scotland’s Island communities, where limited access to emergency services, reliance on natural resources, and fragile biodiversity make response and recovery slower and more challenging.
• Business reliance – climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt transport, energy and communication networks in Scotland and around the world. This could impact on markets, affect supply chains and raise insurance costs, which could disproportionately impact socio-economically disadvantaged groups.
• Health and wellbeing – a warming climate could affect patterns of disease and other health issues. Climate change and associated extreme weather may disrupt the lives of individuals and communities, limiting access to vital services and impacting on people’s physical and mental health. Socioeconomic deprivation can exacerbate a person’s risk to the effects of climate change.
• Security and efficiency of energy supply – climate change could influence Scotland’s capacity to generate weather-dependent renewable energy. For example, varying water availability will affect hydro generation schemes. Climate change can also impact power distribution, with impacts ranging from damage caused by extreme weather events, to reduced transmission efficiency occurring as a result of temperature fluctuations. Impacts on global energy markets may also affect energy supplies in Scotland and consequently, energy security. Socio-economically disadvantaged groups could be less resilient and could be disproportionately and negatively impacted.
• Infrastructure network connectivity and interdependencies – energy, transport, water, and ICT networks support services are vital to health and wellbeing and economic prosperity. The effect of climate change on these infrastructure systems will be varied. They are likely to be impacted by an increase in disruptive events such as flooding, landslides, drought, and heatwaves. The national infrastructure is closely inter-linked and failure in any area can lead to wider disruption across these networks. It is likely that disruption would disproportionately affect people from socio-economically disadvantaged groups.

4.3 Overarching Impacts

The policy package as a whole should positively impact people who share protected characteristics as it mitigates the likelihood of events which could have disproportionately negative impacts on people who share protected characteristics.

4.3.1 Just Transition

Under the Climate Change Act (Scotland) 2009, there is a requirement for the Climate Change Plan to explain the impact of our policies and proposals on communities, with reference to the just transition principles. All five of the principles are focused on fairness, and two explicitly refer to key Fairer Scotland considerations (‘creates decent, fair and high-value work’ and ‘contributes to resource efficient and sustainable economic approaches which help to address inequality and poverty’).

The Plan therefore highlights where policies and proposals would have significant implications for the fulfilment of these principles, and the action that Scottish Government is taking to address these implications. Essentially, it sets out the Scottish Government’s approach to achieving net zero in a way which is fair and just.

At the heart of our approach is a recognition that, if we fail to manage it properly, the transition has the potential to disproportionately affect those in our society who already face inequities, including socio-economic disadvantage. Equally, the policies and proposals in the Plan offer enormous benefits that we are determined to ensure are seized and distributed fairly, in order to tackle poverty and inequality.

4.3.2 Job Creation

The expansion of low carbon intensive products, services and infrastructure will translate to higher labour demand across many sectors of the economy. Examples include jobs in: renewable energy; energy efficiency (e.g. manufacturing, transportation, building construction and operations); organic agriculture; adaptation projects intended to protect and restore ecosystems and biodiversity; and infrastructure projects (e.g. flood barriers) intended to adapt to climate change impacts and build resilience

4.3.3 Job Substitution

Some existing jobs will be substituted as a result of shifts in the economy from less to more efficient, from high carbon to low carbon, and from more to less polluting technologies, processes and products.

4.3.4 Job Elimination

Certain jobs may be phased out or reduced in numbers – without direct replacement. This may happen where polluting and energy and materials-intensive economic activities are reduced or phased out entirely. Greater energy, materials and water efficiency (along with boosts in recycling of materials and reuse of products) could lead to substantial job losses in primary sectors.

4.3.5 Job Transformation and Redefinition

Many, and perhaps most, existing workers (such as plumbers, electricians, metal workers and construction workers) will have their jobs transformed and redefined as day-to-day workplace practices, skill sets, work methods and job profiles transition. For instance, electricians and motor vehicle engineers could be reoriented to carry out similar “greener” work.

4.3.6 Relevance of Fairer Scotland Duty

Transitioning to a greener economy brings significant overall benefits, including environmental protection and long-term economic resilience. However, the shift may affect people differently, particularly in terms of employment. Some individuals or communities may face barriers to accessing new green jobs, especially where these roles require specific skills or qualifications that are not currently available to everyone. While these challenges are recognised, the declaration of a climate emergency and the associated policy measures to address this emergency are considered a necessary and proportionate response to a pressing global issue.

4.3.7 Meeting the Fairer Scotland Duty

There is good evidence that the content of the draft Climate Change Plan takes account of Just Transition principles and includes suitable mitigation measures to reduce inequalities experienced by socio-economic disadvantage by:

• Supporting the development of skills and education to increase benefits from the transition and address existing inequalities, and highlighting that active support will be needed to ensure a just transition,
• Applying Fair Work conditions to all climate change funding, which includes action to tackle the gender pay gap and create a more diverse and inclusive workplace, and payment of the real Living Wage,
• Co-development of a just transition with citizens through the representative Citizen Assembly which should enhance how adaption practice meets the diverse needs of socio-economically disadvantaged groups,
• Sharing benefits widely and ensuring burdens are distributed on the basis of ability to pay which supports the advancement of equality as it aligns with a more equitable distribution of benefits,
• Scotland was the first country in the world to embed Just Transition principles into climate change legislation. Doing so increases the likelihood that mitigation takes into account existing inequalities and widen the net for economic benefit,
• Acknowledging that carefully designed policy interventions are needed to ensure current inequalities are not deepened by the transition,
• Recognising that fairness may mean supporting generational change, and encouraging new entrants into the sectors and work to remove some of the barriers they face,
• Ensuring access to skills for workers in carbon-intensive sectors could advance equality for those who are less likely to be in employment, education and training, and could support decreasing levels of poverty and unemployment as well as supporting career progression,
• Leveraging the transition as an opportunity to help address existing labour market inequalities by building on existing sector initiatives that aim to increase employment of under-represented groups, and Including binding clauses for greater equality and diversity in modern apprenticeships.

4.4 Burden of Cost

It is important to understand that while the costs of a just transition to a net zero economy are significant, the costs of inaction are even higher. By not taking action, we are taking huge risks with our economy and livelihoods. The current main costs to Scotland come from damage and disruption caused by flooding, damage to crops, the impact of stronger storms and the health impacts of higher temperatures.

While it is anticipated that investment in decarbonisation should ultimately have overall economic benefits, the transition will involve costs in switching and upgrading. There is uncertainty in transition costs, which could be affected by factors such as advances in technology and the speed of behavioural change.

4.4.1 Relevance of Fairer Scotland Duty

A failure to ensure a fair distribution of the costs of the transition would risk further burdening groups that are socio-economically disadvantaged. In addition, we know that the costs of inaction – in terms of climate impacts and a failure to transition to a net zero economy – would fall disproportionately on these groups.

4.4.2 Meeting the Fairer Scotland Duty

The Scottish Government is determined to ensure that transition does not burden those least able to pay, and that the costs fall primarily to those who can bear them. By taking the actions set out in the draft Climate Change Plan, we intend to ensure that the greater costs of inaction, and their potential to exacerbate poverty and inequality, are avoided.