Scotland's Climate Change Plan – 2026-2040 - EQIA

3. Key issues and evidence

3.1 Introduction

The section provides an overview of the key issues and evidence pertinent to assessing the equality impacts associated with people who share protected characteristics.

A judgement has been made regarding which areas are pertinent to the assessment based on the following rationales:

Health: There are persistent health inequalities across the population, and between and within specific protected groups. Many climate change mitigation measures seek also to redress these health inequalities, for example, improved efficiency of energy and insulation in homes also ensures homes are properly heated, while measures to reduce car kilometres also reduces air pollution. Both of these actions may potentially improve respiratory and cardiovascular health alongside achieving emissions reductions. These are areas which are likely to impact the vulnerable the most, such as older people and those with pre-existing health conditions. The potential for climate change mitigation policy to benefit the population’s health was repeatedly raised in the Scottish Government’s engagement on the Plan and was a significant consideration when finalising the Plan.

Living Standards: Individuals who share protected characteristics are often at greater risk of socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change mitigation actions may involve household and/or consumer costs, such as changes to energy heating systems, modes of transport, or consumption patterns which could disproportionately impact protected groups. Climate change mitigation efforts may require greater upfront costs for those with protected characteristics as they could be required to adapt to a changing climate at a different pace than other people, for example in retrofitting homes. Concurrently, the emissions reductions pathway in the Climate Change Plan may involve economic benefits arising from green jobs, improved housing efficiency, and cleaner environments, for example. This has the potential to lower household bills, and in a wider sense enhance living standards, offering a significant opportunity to address existing inequalities and improving outcomes for people with protected characteristics.

Work and Skills: Addressing the twin crises of climate change and biodiversity loss requires a fundamental restructuring of the energy supply and a change in how we use our land, leading to significant shifts across economic sectors. The transition towards a low-carbon and sustainable economy presents both positive and negative impacts on employment. While green jobs offer potential for higher wages and long-term sustainability, they are currently dominated by male workers, raising concerns about gender inclusivity and occupational segregation^[9]. Certain protected groups including women and disabled people may be disproportionately affected due to existing inequalities, for example, women remain underrepresented in key sectors of the green economy, and without targeted interventions, the transition could reinforce the gender pay gap.^{[10] [11]} In the Scottish Government’s engagement on the draft Plan, this point which was raised by The Poverty Alliance and other stakeholders and is an important consideration when developing climate change mitigation policy.

Transport: The transport sector can provide opportunities including the chance of work or better paid work. Income and wealth have an important effect on the ability to access different types of public and private transport. Transport barriers can be intimately related to protected characteristics and climate change mitigation could provide opportunities to address such barriers through investment in public transport and active travel which may lead to greater reliability and affordability, thereby improving access to employment and services.

3.2 Protected Characteristic Groups

The following sub-sections explore how the broad landscape of climate change, including mitigation efforts, may affect current inequalities for each relevant protected characteristic. Every assessment is based on available evidence. Where evidence is limited or not (yet) available, hypothetical impacts are presented and clearly highlighted.

3.2.1 Age

3.2.1.1 Health

Exposure to air pollution is harmful to people's health in terms of premature mortality and morbidity, mainly related to respiratory and cardiovascular disease. It is a significant public health concern in Scotland, contributing to up to 2,700 premature deaths annually, to which increasing emissions play a role. It is widely accepted that exposure to air pollution causes damage to human health across a wide range of conditions, from pre-birth to old age. It is the second leading risk factor for death in children under 5 and intense or extended exposure can have adverse development and lifelong health impacts.^[12]

Vulnerable groups - particularly children and older adults, especially those with pre-existing health conditions - are disproportionately affected due to increased sensitivity and higher exposure levels. These groups are also more vulnerable to the impact of traffic related noise, and injury from collisions.^{[13] [14] [15]} These impacts are compounded by inequalities in access to clean air and safe transport environments, which often correlate with age.^[16]

3.2.1.2 Living standards

In the past 25 years, the youngest adults in Scotland (16-24 year olds) have been consistently more likely to be in relative poverty compared to older adults. In 2021-24, 37% of adults aged 16-24 were in relative poverty after housing costs, compared to the age groups 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 and 55-64 which all had similar (and lower) poverty rates between 18% and 21%. Single female pensioners have, in most years, been more likely to be in relative poverty than single male pensioners. ^[17]

Older households (25%) have a higher rate of extreme fuel poverty than Families (12%). Older households are less likely than “Families and Other” household types to report that their heating system doesn’t always keep them warm in winter; 18%, compared to 18% of Families and Other households.^[18] While cleaner heating systems can reduce household bills, the upfront cost of making the switch can be costly. Targeted interventions to enable older households to switch may be required to ensure that a Just Transition is extended to this section of society.

Younger people are more likely than older people to earn less than the living wage. In 2022, approximately 50% of workers aged 18-24 earned less than the living wage compared to approximately 20% of the other, older age groups.^[19]

In 2019, around 11% of children lived in food-insecure households. Food insecurity has increased in more recent data, with approximately one-third of children in relative poverty potentially affected. Children in food-insecure households may face heightened risks to their physical and mental health, educational attainment, and long-term wellbeing. These impacts intersect with age, potentially reinforcing existing inequalities.

3.2.1.2 Work and skills

In 2024, the employment rate for those aged 16–64 in Scotland was 74.3%. The highest employment rate continues to be among 35–49 year olds, at approximately 83.7%, while the lowest remains among the 16–24 age group, with a rate of 55.9%. Additionally, 5.7% of 16–19 year olds were not in education, employment or training.^[20]

In 2024, entrepreneurial activity in Scotland was highest among 25- to 34-year-olds, who accounted for 7.8% of early-stage business activity, while the lowest rate was observed in the 45 to 54 age group. In the same year, 33% of small to medium-sized enterprise (SME) employers in Scotland fell within the 45 to 54 age category, followed by 23% in the 55 to 64 group and 20% in the 35 to 44 group. The proportions in the under-35 and 65-and-over age categories were smaller, at 12% and 13% respectively.^{[21] [22]}

Young people are expected to benefit from emerging green job opportunities, particularly in sectors such as renewable energy, construction, transport, and digital technologies. However, they may face challenges in accessing these roles due to limited experience or barriers in transitioning from education to employment. The Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan (CESAP) highlights the need to develop future workforce pipelines and improve access to green skills training for young people.^[23]

Older workers, especially those in carbon-intensive industries, may be disproportionately affected by job displacement in changing labour markets due to climate change and emission reduction measures. Reskilling and upskilling initiatives will be essential to support their transition into sustainable employment. CESAP identifies the importance of inclusive retraining programmes, including the Green Jobs Workforce Academy, to mitigate disruption and ensure older workers are not left behind.

3.2.1.3 Transport

In 2023, younger and older age groups in Scotland rely more heavily on public transport and active travel modes than middle-aged adults. 59% of 16–19-year-olds reported bus use in the previous month, compared to 40% of those aged 60–69 and 41% of all adults. Train usage was also higher among younger people, with 37% of 16–19-year-olds using rail services, compared to 9% of those aged 80 and over. ^[24]

Walking as a mode of transport declines with age. In 2023, 62% of 16–19-year-olds walked journeys under two miles, while only 38% of those aged 80+ did so. Cycling was most prevalent among those aged 20–29, with minimal uptake among those aged 60 and over, and virtually none among those aged 80+.

These patterns are indicative younger and older populations being more dependent on public and active transport modes. It is therefore important that climate-related transport policies sufficiently consider age-specific needs, particularly in service accessibility, infrastructure design, affordability, and modal shift strategies.

3.2.2 Disability

3.2.2.1 Health

Disabled people, including those with weak respiratory systems, or people who suffer health problems more generally associated with weaker lungs may be disproportionately impacted by traffic related emissions and dust as well as dust and emissions created through construction and maintenance of transport infrastructure.^[25]

A smaller proportion of disabled people (39%) meet physical activity recommendations than non-disabled people (72%), highlighting the importance of climate and transport policy that enables disabled people have equitable access to active travel infrastructure.^[26] As climate change drives shifts toward low-carbon mobility, it is essential that disabled people are not excluded from the health and environmental benefits of walking, wheeling, and cycling.

3.2.2.2 Living standards

Disabled people continue to experience significantly higher rates of poverty in Scotland. The poverty rate after housing costs for households with a disabled person was 25%, compared to 17% for households without a disabled member. This gap has widened slightly since 2020, reflecting persistent structural inequalities in income and employment.^[27]

Food insecurity remains disproportionately high among disabled people and those affected by ill health. The Scottish Health Survey 2023 found that 14% of adults reported experiencing food insecurity which is the highest level since the time series began in 2017.^[28] While the survey does not disaggregate this figure specifically by disability status, previous research by the Trussell Trust has shown that households affected by disability and ill health are significantly more likely to experience food insecurity and rely on emergency food aid.^[29]

Climate change may exacerbate these vulnerabilities. Rising energy costs, increased food prices, and the financial costs of adapting homes or travel routines to extreme weather events disproportionately affect low-income households. Disabled people, already facing higher living costs and barriers to employment, may find it more difficult to absorb these additional financial burdens.

3.2.2.3 Work and skills

In 2023, the employment rate for disabled people of working age was 50%, compared to 81% for non-disabled people. Employment rates vary substantially by impairment type: those with a mental health condition considered a disability have the lowest employment rate at 21%, while people with learning disabilities have an employment rate of 26%.17% of Modern Apprenticeship starts in 2023/24 self-identified as disabled. In Higher Education, 26.6% of Scottish domiciled students reported a disability in 2021/22, continuing a rising trend in participation. However, retention and success rates remain lower for students with mental health conditions and multiple impairments.^[30]

The transition to a net zero economy will likely have a significant effect on Scotland’s labour market, with growth in green jobs and demand for new skills. Without targeted support, disabled people risk being excluded from these opportunities due to existing inequalities in employment, education, and training.

3.2.2.4 Transport

56% of disabled people in Scotland hold a driving licence compared to 78% of non-disabled people, and 56% of disabled households have access to a car, compared to 80% of non-disabled households. Disabled people are also less likely to drive as their main mode of travel and more likely to be passengers or rely on walking and public transport.^[31]

In 2023, 15% of disabled people used the bus to travel to work, compared to 9% of non-disabled people. This relative reliance on public transport means that accessibility and reliability are of greater importance for disabled people. Individuals whose condition significantly limits their day-to-day activities are more likely to be car passengers and less likely to cycle or walk as their main mode of travel.

Decarbonisation and infrastructure upgrades, as climate change mitigation measures, will affect Scotland’s transport systems. These changes require inclusive planning to improve access for disabled people.

3.2.3 Gender Reassignment

3.2.3.1 Health

A 2024 UK-wide survey found that 67.7% of respondents had a diagnosed mental health condition. Within this, 71% of trans people had experienced depression and 76% had experienced anxiety^[32]. Among LGBTQ+ youth, 62% reported symptoms of depression in the past year, and 58% had seriously considered suicide, with trans and nonbinary individuals reporting significantly higher rates^[33].

Although not necessarily directly linked to trans people, mental health challenges may be worsened by environmental stressors including poor air quality. A 2024 study in Scotland linked long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollutants to increased hospital admissions for mental and behavioural disorders.^[34] The Royal College of Physicians has also warned that air pollution contributes to a wide range of health issues, including mental health conditions, and disproportionately affects vulnerable communities.^[35]

3.2.3.2 Living standards

Trans and non-binary people in Scotland face disproportionate challenges in housing, employment, and access to public services. Trans individuals are more likely to experience housing insecurity and poverty.^[36] Climate change has the potential to disproportionately intensify these challenges and existing inequalities by straining public services and increasing energy and food prices if not correctly addressed

3.2.3.3 Work and skills

Trans people often face barriers to employment due to discrimination and lack of inclusive workplace policies^[37]. The emissions reduction pathway and transition to green jobs should ensure that trans individuals are not excluded from reskilling opportunities and are supported in safe and affirming work environments^[38].

3.2.3.4 Transport

There is limited direct evidence on the specific impacts of climate change and transport mitigation policies on people with the protected characteristic of gender reassignment in Scotland. However, Transport Scotland equality assessments highlight that transgender or non-binary individuals may already face barriers to safe, accessible, and inclusive transport.^[39] For example, a 2024 survey by LGBT Youth Scotland found that only 40% of trans respondents felt safe on public transport, compared to 56% of cisgender respondents. Experiences of transphobia, including verbal abuse and threats, are common, leading many to avoid certain routes, travel only at specific times, or avoid public transport altogether.^[40]

3.2.4 Pregnancy and maternity

3.2.4.1 Health

Exposure to extreme heat and air pollution can significantly increase the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes.^[41] The Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists has noted the importance of climate-conscious healthcare policy to protect maternal and foetal health in response to climate threats.^[42]

3.2.4.2 Living standards

There is evidence that pregnancy is one of the key triggers that increases the risk of women living in poverty, particularly where they are lone parents.^[43] Rising energy bills and increasing food prices as a result of climate change may threaten maternal wellbeing, especially in low-income households. Climate-related disruptions to healthcare access may also undermine continuity of care during pregnancy.

3.2.4.3 Work and skills

In 2018, an Equality and Human Rights report on pregnancy and maternity related discrimination found that employers in Manufacturing, Construction, Agriculture, Fishing and Mining were less likely to feel supporting pregnant women and those on maternity leave was in the interests of their organisation.^[44]

Analysis of data from the Growing up in Scotland Study found that younger mothers (aged under 20) were less likely to have a qualification at Higher grade or above compared to mother aged 25 and over. (17% vs. 80%)^[45]. Climate policy should be designed to support maternal health and ensure inclusive access to green skills and employment in these key climate sectors.

3.2.4.4 Transport

Climate change can increase the vulnerability to adverse maternal health outcomes. Mothers, especially those in resource-limited settings, face the heightened impact of climate change during the stages of pregnancy, childbirth, and the postpartum period^[46]. Climate mitigation efforts in transport which promote active travel or improve air quality can offer health benefits for pregnant people and children. However, changes to transport infrastructure or service provision may consider the needs of those travelling with children or during pregnancy, such as accessibility and safety.

3.2.5 Race

3.2.5.1 Health

Population density can influence air quality, with denser urban areas experiencing higher levels of traffic and air pollution with barriers to high quality health promoting green-blue infrastructure. Glasgow City is Scotland’s most densely populated local authority, with approximately 3,562 people per square kilometre – over 50 times the national average. The city is also home to a significantly more diverse population: 19.3% of Glasgow residents identify as Black or Minority Ethnic (BME), compared to 7.1% across Scotland. Among school pupils, over 27% in Glasgow come from a minority ethnic background.^[47]

Ethnic minority communities are more likely to live in areas with higher pollution and deprivation, potentially worsening health inequalities. Air pollution levels in Scotland are disproportionately higher in neighbourhoods with greater ethnic diversity and socio-economic disadvantage.^[48] Health outcomes also vary as Gypsy/Traveller communities continue to report the poorest health in Scotland, while older Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Indian women experience worse health than their male counterparts. Certain ethnic groups also have a higher prevalence of conditions such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease, where improved air quality could offer significant health benefits.^[49]

3.2.5.2 Living standards

Ethnic minority communities in Scotland face disproportionate risks to living standards due effects of poverty. In 2021–24, relative poverty after housing costs affected 41% of people from Asian or Asian British backgrounds and 43% of those from Mixed, Black or Black British and Other ethnic groups, compared to 18% among White British individuals.^[50] The Scottish Government’s National Adaptation Plan recognises that low-income and ethnic minority groups often lack the resources to adapt to the effects of climate change, making inclusive climate policy essential for a just transition^[51]. It is important to consider the upfront costs of transitioning towards a low carbon lifestyle on ethnic minorities in this context. The CCP’s focus on a Just Transition seeks to avoid a worsening of racial inequalities in relation to living standards.

3.2.5.3 Work and skills

The employment rate for minority ethnic groups in Scotland was 64.8% in 2024, compared to 75.0% for white groups.^[52] In 2024/25, just 2.9% of Modern Apprenticeship starts were from minority ethnic backgrounds, while 5% of SME employers were minority ethnic-led.^{[53] [54]} These disparities, alongside overrepresentation in low-paid and outdoor jobs, potentially reinforce exposure to climate impacts. Targeted and inclusive green skills programmes and outreach may be required to enable equitable access to emerging job opportunities in the transition to a low carbon economy.

3.2.5.4 Transport

BME groups are more likely to use public transport compared to the White Scottish population, particularly in urban areas, however, participation rates in active travel (such as walking and cycling) remain lower among minority ethnic groups compared to the general population.^[55] Recent research by Sustrans found that, following the completion of new active travel routes, the proportion of users from minority ethnic groups increased, but these groups are still underrepresented relative to their share of the population.^[56]

Although this data does not directly link ethnic disparities to climate change, it does highlight inequalities in access and safety among ethnic communities.

These existing inequalities are particularly relevant when assessing the potential impacts of climate mitigation policies in the transport sector. Measures which aim to reduce car use, expand active travel infrastructure, or decarbonising public transport services offer an opportunity to address existing inequalities so that climate action contributes to greater racial equity.

3.2.6 Religion or Belief

3.2.6.1 Health

The direct relationship between religious belief and health outcomes in the context of climate change is not well established, however, faith communities may play a role in supporting resilience. Religious institutions can provide social support, which may help mitigate the mental health impacts of climate-related impacts including displacement, flooding, wildfires or heatwaves.^[57] Interfaith initiatives have also shown promise in fostering community cohesion and emotional wellbeing during environmental crises.^[58] However, evidence of a strong or consistent link between religious belief and climate-related health outcomes remains limited.

3.2.6.2 Living standards

Adults in Scotland belonging to minority faith groups continue to experience higher rates of poverty. As of 2021–24, Muslim adults were significantly more likely to be in relative poverty after housing costs, with rates estimated above 50%, compared to 20% for the general population. For comparison to Christian denominations, of adults belonging to the Church of Scotland, 15% were in relative poverty after housing costs, compared to 17% of Roman Catholic adults and 20% of adults belonging to other Christian denominations.^[59] Direct evidence linking religious belief to changes in living standards, as a result of climate change, is limited, however, faith communities in Scotland have played an active role in promoting climate justice and supporting vulnerable populations.^[60]

3.2.6.3 Work and skills

In 2024, employment rates varied significantly by religion: those with no religion had the highest rate (75.3%), followed by Christians (74.1%), while Muslims (52.3%) and Hindus (54.8%) had notably lower rates.^[61] Actively engaging with faith-based organisations can support community-led climate action and skills development. Initiatives like Our Sacred Earth and the Glasgow Multi-Faith Declaration promote environmental awareness and encourage participation in sustainability efforts, which can indirectly support skills development and community resilience.

3.2.6.4 Transport

The intersection of climate change, transport, and religion or belief is not yet fully understood, and there is limited direct evidence specific to Scotland. While extreme weather events may disrupt access to places of worship or religious gatherings, this is a general transport resilience issue rather than one uniquely affecting religious communities. Nonetheless, it remains important to ensure that transport planning and climate action do not inadvertently restrict religious freedoms or access to places of worship, especially during emergencies or infrastructure changes.

3.2.7 Sex

3.2.7.1 Health

Women may be more likely to experience the indirect health impacts of climate change due to socio-economic factors including lower income and greater likelihood of caregiving responsibilities. In urban areas, women living in socially vulnerable neighbourhoods may be disproportionately exposed to poor air quality and high temperatures, potentially affecting respiratory and cardiovascular conditions.^[62]

3.2.7.2 Living standards

Women in Scotland are disproportionately affected by poverty and cost-of-living pressures, which can be worsened by climate change. In 2021–24, 30% of single mothers were living in relative poverty after housing costs, compared to 20% of working-age adults overall.⁵⁰ 92% of lone parent households are headed by women, and this group is among the least wealthy in Scotland. With 70% having low or no savings and many cutting back on essentials, these households are particularly vulnerable to rising energy and food costs, both of which may be exacerbated by the effects of climate change.^[63]

3.2.7.3 Work and skills

Women are underrepresented in STEM, construction and agriculture. 82.6% of construction, 77.3% of manufacturing, and 82.2% of agriculture jobs are held by men ^[64]. These are employment sectors central to climate related jobs and the wider green economy.

Similarly, gender inequalities exist in training and education pathways. In 2024/25, just 40% of Modern Apprenticeship starts were female. Women made up 58.5% of entrants into Higher Education, however, they remain underrepresented in key STEM subjects, only 19.1% of computing and 20.3% of engineering and technology students were female. Additionally, just 14% of SME employers in Scotland were women-led.^[65]

Climate mitigation efforts risk deepening gender inequalities in access to high-quality, secure employment as the economy shifts towards greater numbers of green jobs, meaning targeted intervention may be required to mitigate against this.

3.2.7.4 Transport

In Scotland, women and girls often experience transport and climate change impacts differently from men, shaped by distinct travel patterns, caregiving responsibilities, and safety concerns. Women are more likely to rely on public transport and make complex, multi-stop journeys throughout the day, often linked to unpaid care work.^[66] Women also disproportionately rely on buses and walking, making them more vulnerable to service cuts and poor infrastructure. Further, the cost of public transport will be key for women as the transport sector decarbonises due to their greater likelihood of use.^[67]

3.2.8 Sexual Orientation

3.2.8.1 Health

Stonewall Scotland reports that 45% of LGBTQ+ people have experienced depression, and 13% have faced unequal treatment from healthcare staff due to their identity.^[68] These vulnerabilities may be compounded by environmental factors as air pollution has been linked to increased rates of psychiatric disorders and general mental health deterioration, disproportionately LGBTQ+ people already facing barriers to healthcare.

3.2.8.2 Living standards

LGBTQ+ individuals in Scotland, particularly youth, are disproportionately affected by poverty and housing insecurity. In 2024, 26% of adults identifying as lesbian, gay, bisexual or other sexual orientation lived in the most deprived areas of Scotland, compared to 18% of heterosexual adults. LGBTQ+ youth are significantly overrepresented among those experiencing homelessness, with unstable housing potentially increasing exposure to extreme weather and poor air quality.^[69]

3.2.8.3 Work and skills

The links between climate change, skills, and sexual orientation are still emerging, but there is evidence that climate impacts including economic disruption and housing insecurity may disproportionately affect LGBTQ+ individuals, especially those in precarious work or facing multiple forms of marginalisation.^[70] Collaboration with LGBTQ+ organisations can help identify barriers and co-design equitable solutions, contributing to a more inclusive just transition.

3.2.8.4 Transport

There is limited evidence on the specific impacts of climate change on varying sexual orientations. However, LGBTQ+ individuals may face additional barriers to safe and inclusive transport, particularly in rural or less diverse areas.^[71] It is vital that climate action, especially in encouraging greater public transport use in the aim to decarbonise the transport sector, does not reinforce or deepen inequalities.

3.2.9 Rural and Island Communities

Scotland has a diverse landscape with greatly varying levels of population density. Although rural and island communities are not a protected characteristic, it is important to consider the potential for disproportionately negative effects of both a changing climate and climate mitigation efforts on people with protected characteristics who live in these communities. They may be likely to face greater challenges as a result of a changing climate and may also face greater challenges in retrofitting their homes or gaining access to public charge points, for example.

Similarly, as a result to climate change mitigation efforts, people with protected characteristics in rural and island communities may experience a changing employment landscape more acutely due to potentially finding it more difficult to reskill or relocate. Consideration should be given to ensure that people with protected characteristics in rural and island communities are not left behind due to the transition to a low carbon society.

The Scottish Government has conducted an Island Communities Impact Assessment alongside its Climate Change Plan. A second National Islands Plan was published on the 23^rd February 2026, setting out a programme of actions to address the challenges and opportunities facing Scotland’s islands.