Publication - Impact assessment

Scotland 2045: fourth National Planning Framework - draft: lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions - research

Published: 29 November 2021
Part of: Building, planning and design, Environment and climate change
ISBN: 9781802014907

This report provides findings of a research project on lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of proposed national developments in the draft National Planning Framework 4 (NPF4).

Supporting documents

2. Lifecycle GHG Emissions of Proposed National Developments

Introduction

2.1 This chapter provides individual summaries of the lifecycle GHG emissions of each of the proposed national developments. The developments are ordered alphabetically. The key for the colour coding of the significance of effects is shown in Table 2.1.

Table 2.1: Key for colour coding significance of effects

2.2 A summary table of range of effects is provided for each development (see example in Table 2.2), with the relevant word indicting the score for direct and indirect effects, and an arrow indicating the range for the overall summary of effects.

Table 2.2: Example of a summary table with the range of effects
Proposed National Development	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)	Positive
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	N/A				N/A
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects	x	x	x	x

2.3 The Scottish Government Hydrogen Policy Statement (2020) defines low carbon (or blue) hydrogen as produced from reforming of natural gas, in conjunction with carbon capture and storage which captures most of the CO₂ produced, whereas renewable (or green) hydrogen is produced through electrolysis of water. The process of electrolysis is powered by renewable energy. For the purposes of this assessment:

Aberdeen Harbour assesses renewable hydrogen;
The Islands Hub for Net Zero assesses renewable hydrogen;
Industrial Green Transition Zone (covering both the Scottish Cluster Carbon Capture and Storage Network and the Grangemouth Investment Zone) assesses low carbon hydrogen;
Chapelcross assesses both low carbon and renewable hydrogen; and
Hunterston assesses both low carbon and renewable hydrogen.

2.4 Where the assessment is based on an assumption of low-carbon hydrogen production as an element of this development, this is reliant on natural gas which has associated upstream production GHG emissions which are ongoing throughout the low carbon hydrogen production process. Carbon capture and storage is not 100% efficient, and incurs an energy penalty requiring additional natural gas input, which is continuous throughout the production process.

2.5 Carbon capture and storage is assumed to reuse existing oil and gas infrastructure, however there will be some new construction associated with hydrogen production and upgrades and maintenance to existing infrastructure which will result in GHG emissions associated with industrial processes.

2.6 Where the assessment is based on only renewable hydrogen was produced, this is considered to result in increased GHG emissions (relative to low-carbon hydrogen) related to industrial processes from construction and maintenance of the renewable energy sources. These structures are reliant on materials with high levels of embodied carbon. However, the carbon payback period for wind turbines is typically less than a year as manufacturing and construction emissions are then offset by the production of renewable electricity.

2.7 Both methods of hydrogen production are likely to result in some fugitive hydrogen emissions.

2.8 Where both renewable and low carbon hydrogen are produced the profile of GHG emissions will vary according to the mix of each. Renewable hydrogen will result in higher emissions during manufacture and construction than low carbon hydrogen, but low emissions during operation. Conversely, low carbon hydrogen is likely to result in lower emissions during construction, but higher emissions than renewable hydrogen during operation. Renewable hydrogen produced using surplus electricity from existing established renewable generation assets will have a lower profile of GHG emissions than new build dedicated renewable hydrogen production facilities.

2.9 As hydrogen production is only one element of this proposed national development, and in the context of other uncertainties associated the assessment conclusions, the GHG emissions associated with entirely renewable hydrogen production, entirely low carbon hydrogen production, or a mix of the two do not affect the overall conclusion.

Aberdeen Harbour

Description

2.10 This national development supports the continued relocation and repurposing of Aberdeen Harbour.

2.11 The south harbour can act as a cluster of port accessible offshore renewable energy research, manufacturing and support services. The facilities are important for international connections.

2.12 At the south harbour the focus should be on regenerating existing industrial land and reorganising land use around the harbour in line with the spatial strategy of the local development plan. By focusing future port activity here, parts of the existing harbour in the city centre will become available for mixed use development, opening up development land to help reinvigorate Aberdeen city centre.

Assumptions

Assuming the delivery of significant new port infrastructure, including development at South Harbour.
Assuming the development will increase shipping capacity and will enable larger vessels to visit Aberdeen. Larger vessels are more fuel efficient.
Assuming cruise ships will use the harbour.
Assuming infrastructure required for renewable hydrogen production.
Assuming that carbon heavy materials will be required for construction and operation phases.
Assuming a significant number of jobs will be created within the development.
Assuming onshore elements of harbour infrastructure will require an electricity supply – including for the operation of lighting, offices, security etc.
Assuming that buildings will require heating.
Assuming that development will include brownfield and greenfield land, whilst recognising that brownfield will be prioritised as far as possible.
Assuming that this activity is going to support oil and gas decommissioning and to support offshore renewables.
Assuming potential for transport structure upgrades including road and rail.
Assuming development will enhance access and improve the quality of green space.
Assuming active travel options will be designed-in.
Assuming environmental sensitivities are addressed through careful planning, assessment and implementation.
Assuming that, as part of the consenting process, consideration through all relevant statutory assessment regimes such as Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Habitats Regulations Appraisal (HRA) will be required, where applicable at project level.
Assuming the development will have a lifetime of at least 40 years.
Assuming that some hydrogen leakage may occur during distribution and transportation.
Assuming that recycled materials will be used where possible.

Table 2.3: Aberdeen Harbour summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)					Negative
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects		x	x	x

Table 2.4: Aberdeen Harbour summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor to major positive Scotland wide, long term, multiplier effect

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, long term

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor to major positive
Scotland wide, long term, multiplier effect

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of direct

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net negative effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions.

lifecycle GHG effects

This is based on:

Low confidence in minor negative effects from transport as it is uncertain how much additional marine and road traffic this development is likely to generate, and how much of the hydrogen produced will be used for transport purposes.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from electricity as it is expected that this development will require electricity for operation, and it is uncertain if energy demands will be met from renewable sources.
Low confidence in minor negative effects for buildings due to uncertainty if hydrogen will be used as a heat source. It is assumed there is a small increase in heat demand.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects in relation to industrial processes as this development will require a significant amount of carbon heavy materials for construction and operational phases, and it is uncertain how much renewable hydrogen will be used for industrial purposes.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from waste due to uncertainty over the quantity of waste generated by the operations.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects arising from LULUCF as it is assumed that the development would be delivered on both brownfield and greenfield land.

Summary of indirect direct lifecycle GHG effects

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

This development is likely to enable increased generation of renewable electricity through research, manufacturing and support services. This could displace higher carbon fuel sources across Scotland. The research elements are likely to have a multiplier effect for renewable energy development over the medium to long term. In addition, it is likely to facilitate the more efficient use of renewable energy by using surplus electricity to produce renewable hydrogen. Renewable hydrogen may be used for transport, heat and industry. Low confidence in indirect positive effects due to uncertainty over the use of surplus electricity for hydrogen production, the scale of hydrogen production and deployment across different sectors.

Summary of overall lifecycle GHG effects

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to the facilitation and enabling of renewable energy development across Scotland, and the production of renewable hydrogen over long timescales.

The scale of this effect could range from low to high. A low scale of effect would result from higher levels of increased transport emissions from the site operations using high carbon fuels, but with a lesser contribution by the development to enabling renewable energy and a lesser quantity of renewable hydrogen produced. Conversely, if the additional site transport emissions are lower overall and use low carbon fuels, and the proportion of renewable energy development enabled and renewable hydrogen produced is higher, this could result in a high positive effect.

Conclusion: Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. Uncertainty about the nature and scale of these effects means there is low confidence in this conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Prioritise the use of renewable / low carbon energy to power the development.

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused or recycled.

Provide low carbon transport options for the site to reduce car dependency.

Central Scotland Green Network

Description

2.13 The proposed national development is to support delivery of green infrastructure in Central Scotland.

Assumptions

Assuming expansion of active travel paths will increase journeys taken on foot/cycling.
Assuming Central Scotland Green Network will not be decommissioned.
Assuming the only electricity use will be safety lighting.
Assuming construction equipment will be powered by fossil fuels.
Assuming trees will need protection when young for up to 5 years by tree guards.
Assuming waste is limited to associated infrastructure found in green space.
Assuming some soil/vegetation will be cleared as part of upgrades. Assuming to be reused/repurposed elsewhere within development.
Assuming tree protection removed after 5 years.
Assuming some carbon in soil will be released during construction works.
Assuming large scale tree planting and peatland regeneration across Central Scotland.
Assuming green infrastructure will be created on brownfield land where possible.
Assuming green infrastructure uses may include food growing, nature-based solutions for climate adaptation and biodiversity enhancement, and water management.

Table 2.5: Central Scotland Green Network summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)	Positive
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	N/A				N/A
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects		x	x

Table 2.6: Central Scotland Green Network summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Super positive (more than 10%)

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Neutral

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Major positive (between 5 and 10%)

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence in super positive effects for transport related to the assumed greater uptake of active modes of travel displacing emissions from transport over a long time period and at a national scale, however there is uncertainty over the uptake of active travel.
Medium confidence in major positive effects for LULUCF from greater carbon sequestration from creation of new greenspace and large-scale planting of trees. However, there is uncertainty surrounding the scale of green network enhancements.
Medium confidence in minor positive effects for industrial, manufacture and construction processes due to reduced flood risk and impacts on property and infrastructure.
High confidence in minor negative effects for electricity, and waste due to assumed limited emissions associated with these sectors.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

No indirect effects identified.

Overall summary of effect

This proposed national development is likely to have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to reduced transport emissions from higher uptake of active travel, reduced flood risk and greater rates of carbon sequestration due to the creation of new greenspace and large-scale planting of trees.

The scale of this effect is likely to be in the range of medium to high as it is likely to encourage a change in behaviour around active travel in central Scotland over a long time period. A medium scale of effect would result from higher embodied carbon in construction infrastructure, lower levels of active travel and lower levels of flood risk reduction. Conversely, lower embodied carbon in construction infrastructure, higher levels of active travel and higher levels of flood risk reduction would result in a higher scale of effect.

Conclusion: Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. However there is considerable uncertainty and this could be within the range of medium to high positive impact. Uncertainty about the scale of these effects means there is medium confidence in this conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Maximise the scale of expansion, number of trees and type of development, whilst protecting existing high carbon soils.

Ensure low carbon materials are used for associated infrastructure (seating, lighting, tree protective equipment etc).

Consider the use of the green network for providing renewable heating.

Ensure that green network is well linked with other active travel routes and public transport modes to further reduce potential emissions from transport.

Chapelcross Power Station Redevelopment

Description

2.14 The proposed national development is to redevelop the former nuclear power station site. The development may include for example business development with a particular focus on energy and energy supply chain; energy generation from solar; electricity storage; generation of heat; production and storage of low carbon and renewable hydrogen.

Assumptions

Assuming most vehicles are powered by fossil fuels. Over time vehicles are likely to transition to lower carbon alternatives such as electric vehicles or hydrogen fuelled HGV.
Assuming that this development will provide opportunities for active and sustainable travel.
Assuming a proportion of electricity demand will be low carbon in nature and provided from elsewhere within the development.
Assuming that the land is potentially contaminated and that some ground remediation works will be required, although the nature of these is unknown.
Assuming that wherever possible existing infrastructure will be reused.
Assuming some landscaping and greenspace will be incorporated into the development.
Assuming heat generation is surplus or low carbon.
Assuming that renewable energy, including solar energy, will displace emissions from some of the current fossil fuel-based energy. Energy storage will enable more efficient use of renewable energy.
Assuming that electricity storage will be developed in the medium to long term.
Assuming low carbon hydrogen production.
Assuming renewable hydrogen production.
Assuming large scale hydrogen production, over at least 30 years’ time scales.
Assuming hydrogen produced supports the transition to net zero and could be used for transport, heat and energy storage.
Assuming the development includes infrastructure for chemicals production associated with hydrogen, including ammonia production, for the purpose of energy storage or transportation.
Assuming some hydrogen may leak to the atmosphere. Assuming hydrogen distribution and storage will be a part of this development.
Assuming that distribution of hydrogen and ammonia for vehicular/transport use will rely on shipping and road transport, which is assumed to be fuelled by fossil fuels.

Table 2.7: Chapelcross Power Station Redevelopment summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)					Negative
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects				x	x

Table 2.8: Chapelcross Power Station Redevelopment summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
Regional to national, enabling, medium to long term

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
Regional to national, enabling, medium to long term

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Neutral

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
Regional to national, enabling, medium to long term

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
Regional to national, enabling, medium to long term

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Negligible positive

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net negative effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions.

This is based on:

Low confidence in minor positive effects arising from electricity because of the uncertainty around the amount of renewable electricity generated versus the amount of electricity required for hydrogen generation.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects arising from transport as this development is assumed to generate additional transport.
Medium confidence in minor negative emissions from industrial processes as it is assumed that this development is likely to require carbon heavy materials for its construction and also it is likely to lead to hydrogen leakage during its operation.
Low confidence in minor positive effects on LULUCF due to the assumed limited scale of landscaping potential at this site.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

The development is likely to support and provide a catalyst for low carbon energy generation, storage and distribution which will help displace emissions from current fossil fuel-based energy, including for transport, heat and industrial processes. The indirect positive effects could range from minor to moderate positive due to uncertainty over how much the development supports hydrogen for fuel or supports renewable energy development elsewhere.

Negligible positive effects are also identified in relation to LULUCF, as this development is likely to avoid using a greenfield site which could have led to more significant soil carbon and vegetation loss

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to the production of renewable and low carbon energy and support for energy related business development.

The scale of effects could range from low negative to low positive. A low negative effect would result from a lower level of renewable / low carbon energy produced or stored, and lower levels of enabling support for renewable energy related development which could be insufficient to balance against the embodied energy of construction and on site energy demands and increase in transport emissions, Conversely, if the levels of renewable/low carbon energy production and storage are higher and the enabling effect of the development for renewable energy is greater a low positive effect could be achieved. An overall net positive effect is concluded based on the assumption of a higher level of renewable/low carbon energy production and storage.

Conclusion: Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. Uncertainty about the scale of these effects means there is low confidence in this overall conclusion

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused again or at least recycled.

Consideration of the type and scale of green energy generation and whether it can be used to provide electricity to the businesses forming the development.

Consideration should be given to potential restoration of the development site (or individual components) upon decommissioning.

Ensure public transport connections and links to active travel routes.

Circular Economy Materials Management Facilities

Description

2.15 The proposed national development is to deliver a range of facilities required to manage waste streams and their re-processing back to the economy, where sites and facilities will enable retaining the value of waste materials to maximise the use of materials and minimise the use of virgin materials to reduce GHG emissions.

Assumptions

Assuming that even without these facilities materials would have to be transported for some processing or landfilling. Assuming the facilities will be in place for at least 30 years.
Assuming that new supply chains will need to be developed and this may increase the overall transport emissions.
Assuming that electricity would be required for the processing activities.
Assuming that reprocessing of some materials will require at least some heat.
Assuming that if these facilities are not constructed, there would be a need to construct other facilities that would process similar volume of waste. This would also require materials for construction.
Assuming most materials will remain in the loop once this network is implemented.
Assuming brownfield sites will be prioritised for these facilities.

Table 2.9: Circular Economy Materials Management Facilities summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)	Positive
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects		x	x	x

Table 2.10: Circular Economy Materials Management Facilities summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
Local, long term

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
Scotland wide, long term

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Major positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
Enabling, medium to long term

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Neutral

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions.

This is based on:

Medium confidence in minor negative effects arising from transport as it is assumed that more complex supply chains may be developed which may increase the transport, but it is uncertain how such vehicles will be fuelled in the future.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from electricity and heat as materials processing will require additional electricity and heat, but there is uncertainty over the source of electricity or heat.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from industrial, manufacture and construction processes as it is assumed this development will lead to limited additional emissions compared to existing processing facilities.
High confidence in significant positive effects in relation to waste as this development has the potential to reduce waste from a range of waste streams by keeping them in the loop, repurposing and reusing them.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

This development may potentially encourage more innovation and may enable some businesses to use new materials that is likely to reduce the demand for virgin materials, with positive effects for industrial, manufacture and construction processes. Potential for positive effects where surplus by-products can be utilised, for example surplus heat.

The indirect positive effects could range from minor to moderate due to uncertainty over the role of the development in reducing emissions from production and processing of raw materials and the quantity of electricity or heat produced.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have net positive effects on lifecycle GHG emissions due to increased efficiency in waste management and use of raw materials.

The scale of the positive effects could range from low to high positive depending on the volume of waste reprocessed. If the amount of waste reprocessed is relatively minor, vehicle movements are higher, energy demands of reprocessing are higher and waste heat is not utilised the overall positive effect is likely to be minor. However, if this development enables reprocessing at a significant scale, uses low carbon transport, utilises waste heat and supports energy production, it is likely to lead to high positive effects.

Conclusion: Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. Uncertainty about the scale of these effects mean that there is medium confidence in this conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Ensure that where possible transport is decarbonised to reduce the overall emissions from this development and also from transport sector.

Ensure use of waste heat where possible.

Support on site low carbon or renewable energy generation.

Support local processing and reuse where possible.

Ensure development on brownfield land where possible.

Clyde Mission

Description

2.16 The proposed national development is to deliver an ambitious redevelopment programme to bring forward sites which are ready for redevelopment to sustain a range of uses.

2.17 This development will repurpose and reinvigorate vacant and derelict land, tackling contamination, and supporting local living as well as adapting the area to the impacts of climate change.

Assumptions

Assuming that sustainable transport modes and active travel routes will be linked with the development to reduce emissions from resident's commute.
Construction over 20 years. Assuming the development will have a lifetime of at least 40 years.
Assuming that energy efficiency and low carbon solutions will be installed.
Assuming for the purposes of assessment that heat efficiency and low carbon solutions will be installed to provide net zero heating, to meet the net increase in heating demand from the development.
Assuming for the purpose of assessment that the land is potentially contaminated and that some ground remediation works will be required, although the nature of these is unknown.
Assuming that new and/or upgraded infrastructure for climate adaptation, including nature-based, green and blue solutions will be embedded in the development.
Assuming the upgrading of existing ports and harbour assets.

Table 2.11: Clyde Mission summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)					Negative
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects					x

Table 2.12: Clyde Mission summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Negligible positive, local, long term

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net negative effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence in minor negative effects related to industrial, manufacture and construction processes based on an assumption that this development will require a significant amount of carbon heavy materials, although there is uncertainty over the use of low carbon construction materials.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects related to transport, electricity and waste, based on assumptions that the development will encourage an increase in travel, electricity demand and waste production.
Low confidence in relation to minor negative effects for buildings (heat) based uncertainty over the use of sustainable heating sources.
Low confidence in minor positive effects from LULUCF based on an assumption that the impact of development of the site and implementation of green and blue infrastructure are unknown.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

The development is taking place on previously developed land, and it is assumed that the development reduces pressure on greenfield land and reduces potential transport emission generated from equivalent development on greenfield land with fewer sustainable transport connections and LULUCF associated emissions. The scale of this effect is likely to be minor, due to the regional effect of this development.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have a net negative effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to increased emissions from transport, electricity, heat, industrial, manufacture and construction processes and waste. This development is likely to be delivered on vacant or derelict land which is assumed to protect greenfield sites from being developed.

The scale of this effect is likely to be low depending on the uptake of sustainable transport modes and low carbon/energy efficiency solutions, and LULUCF benefits.

Conclusion: Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net negative impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. Uncertainty about the scale of these effects mean that there is medium confidence in this conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Ensure that electricity and heat demand and supplied from renewable or low carbon sources to reduce potential emissions.

Exploit the potential for green and blue infrastructure to ensure climate resilience and adaptation, and also potential for active travel.

Ensure requirement for high energy efficiency of new and retrofitted buildings.

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused again or at least recycled.

Digital Fibre Network

Description

2.18 The proposed national development is to deliver enhanced digital connectivity providing high speed broadband or equivalent mobile service, prioritising those areas with weaker networks across Scotland.

Assumptions

Assuming that increased connectivity will support a reduced need to travel. The lifetime of the development is assumed to be about 10 years based on the rate of change associated with this technology.
Assuming that the network equipment may include some cables, towers and routes (the quantity of each is uncertain and which may have a significant impact on the potential GHG emissions).
Assuming potential creation of green data centres.
Assuming mix of brownfield and greenfield land.

Table 2.13: Digital Fibre Network summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)					Negative
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects				x	x

Table 2.14: Digital Fibre Network summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
Supra regional, enabling, short to medium term

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Neutral

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Negligible negative, Scotland wide, long term

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net negative effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence in minor negative effects arising from transport related to the assumed more frequent maintenance travel.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from electricity due to an assumed increase in the number of devices and internet use.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects related to industrial, manufacture and construction processes from the embodied carbon in the materials.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects for waste reflecting uncertain energy requirements for processing waste or loss of embodied carbon in waste materials.
Medium confidence in minor negative GHG balance for LULUCF, due to uncertainty over extent of loss of sequestered carbon in soils and vegetation.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

The development will support digital connectivity in less well-connected areas of the Highlands and Islands. There is low confidence over the scale of impact of indirect positive effects on transport. The indirect positive effects may only be minor due to uncertainty over reductions in travel for work, as increased connectivity may also encourage an increase in travel in the medium to long term. Increased home working may result in minor indirect negative effects on heat demand, however this is likely to be limited in scale.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have negligible effects as the potential increases in maintenance travel and electricity use, and to industrial, manufacture and construction processes should be counterbalanced by reduced journeys from improved connectivity.

Conclusion: Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall negligible impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. Uncertainty over the balance between reductions in travel and increases in travel means there is low confidence in this conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Avoid development in areas with high carbon soil.

Development of best practice guidance/regulation to ensure that fibre cables and tower construction do not impact on high carbon soils.

Ensure cable laying utilises conduits or existing infrastructure for lower carbon future cable replacement.

Dundee Waterfront

Description

2.19 This national development supports the continued delivery of the waterfront transformation securing the role of the city as a location for investment in the net zero economy. Further projects associated with this include: the Michelin Scotland Innovation Parc which will become an innovation hub for net zero emission mobility; the Eden Project; and an expansion to Dundee Port. This national development includes reusing land on and around the Dundee Waterfront to support the lifelong health and wellbeing of communities, deliver innovation and attract investment. As the development progresses it will be important to support sustainable and active transport options and to build in adaptation to future climate risks.

Assumptions

Assuming that the development will have a lifetime of at least 40 years.
Assuming that the development will be served by sustainable transport modes and will be linked with active travel routes but will result in overall net increase in travel demand of all types.
Assuming that at least some of the electricity will come from renewable sources.
Assuming for purposes of assessment that a proportion of low carbon heating sources will be in place.
Assuming for purposes of assessment that waste minimisation will be sought across the development.
Assuming that green and blue infrastructure will be part of the development.
Assuming a significant number of people will uptake sustainable and active transport modes. Assuming in the longer-term greater numbers of people will use them as these will become the most convenient transport mode.
Assuming active travel routes will include a green infrastructure.
Assuming activity to support oil and gas decommissioning and off-shore renewables.
Assuming that recycled materials will be used where possible.
Assuming redevelopment of brownfield land.
Assuming new or upgraded ports facilities and land reclamation for port expansion.

Table 2.15: Dundee Waterfront summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)					Negative
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects				x

Table 2.16: Dundee Waterfront summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
Scotland wide, long term, multiplier effect

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Negligible

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net negative effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence in minor negative effects in relation to transport based on an assumption that this development will increase overall journeys but will also enable sustainable and active transport.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects arising from electricity and heat due to increased demand and uncertainty over extent of renewable or low carbon electricity or heat incorporated into the development.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects arising from industrial processes as it is Assuming that carbon heavy materials will be required for the construction phase of the development.
High confidence in minor negative effects from waste, as the development will increase overall levels of waste generated.
Medium confidence in negligible GHG balance from LULUCF due to Assumed use of previously developed land and incorporation of green and blue infrastructure.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions. The development is likely to support the decommissioning of the oil and gas industry and also off-shore renewables. The scale of indirect effects is likely to be minor, however there is low confidence over the scale of indirect positive effects on electricity due to uncertainty over the quantity of renewables that will be supported by this development.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to the transport emissions being partly balanced by indirect support for renewable energy development.

The scale of this effect is likely to be low positive to negligible, depending on the level of renewable energy supported by the development and the level of travel generated by the development. If a relatively small amount of renewable energy generation supported by this development negligible effects are expected, whereas if this development supports a significant amount of renewable energy generation then minor positive effects are expected.

However, it is assumed that a significant amount of renewable energy capacity will be supported considering the location of the harbour in relation to off-shore renewables and the relatively large-scale expansion of the harbour.

Conclusion: Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. Uncertainty over the scale of effects means there is low confidence in this conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Ensure that public transport connections are frequent and convenient to offer an effective alternative to private vehicles.

Ensure that the site is connected with active travel network.

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused or recycled.

Implement district heating.

Ensure renewable energy generation is incorporated into the development.

Ensure requirements for high energy efficiency buildings.

Edinburgh Waterfront

Description

2.20 This proposed national development supports regeneration that will include high-quality mixed-use proposals that optimise the use of the strategic asset for residential, community, commercial and industrial purposes, including support for off-shore energy relating to port uses.

Assumptions

Assuming good public transport provision and links to active travel network will be ensured. Based on travel generated by additional homes and jobs. Development will have a lifetime of at least 40 years.
Assuming a proportion of energy efficiency solutions will be implemented in the new homes.
Assuming that support for offshore energy relates to renewable energy and not oil and gas.
Assuming that recycled materials will be used where possible.
Assuming that green and blue infrastructure will be a part of the development.
Assuming the majority of the area is redevelopment of brownfield land.

Table 2.17: Edinburgh Waterfront summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)					Negative
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects				x

Table 2.18: Edinburgh Waterfront summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive, regional, long term

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Negligible

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net negative effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence in minor negative effects related to the assumed increased transport, due to uncertainty over the potential for the greater uptake of sustainable travel.
Medium confidence related to the assumed increase in the overall electricity and heat demand.
Medium confidence in minor negative emissions from industrial processes as it is assumed that this development will require carbon heavy construction materials.
High confidence in minor negative effects related to the assumed increased amount of waste produced.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions. The development is likely to support the increasing capacity of off-shore renewables. The scale of indirect effects is likely to be minor, however there is low confidence over the scale of indirect positive effects on electricity due to uncertainty over the quantity of renewable energy that will be supported by this development.

Overall summary of effect

It is likely that this development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to the indirect positive effect from the support for the renewables industry which is judged to outweigh the negative direct effects of the development from the provision of housing, employment and industry leading to increased GHG emissions from transport, electricity and heat demand.

The scale of this effect could range from low positive to negligible positive depending on the uptake of sustainable travel, energy efficiency measures, potential blue and green infrastructure, the nature of industries based within the development and their potential emissions, and the scale of support for the renewable sector. There is considerable uncertainty over the scale of renewable energy enabled by this development. If the scale is significant then this development could have low positive effects, whereas if the amount of renewable energy enables is relatively minor it would lead to negligible positive effects.

Conclusion: Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. Uncertainty over the scale of these effects means there is low confidence in this conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Ensure that active travel routes are provided to the site and across the site.

Ensure that good public transport connections are secured and delivered pre-completion of the development.

Ensure that high levels of renewable energy and heat are installed.

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused again or at least recycled.

Ensure that green infrastructure opportunities are implemented across the development.

Ensure that low carbon heating is installed for residential heating and ensure requirement for high energy efficiency buildings.

High Speed Rail

Description

2.21 The proposed national development is to support the implementation of increased infrastructure to improve rail capacity and connectivity on the main cross-border routes, the east and west coast mainlines.

Assumptions

Assuming this development will be powered by renewable energy, according to decarbonisation of Scottish transport strategy.
Assuming new infrastructure will be required, for example new track, passenger facilities and fuelling infrastructure.
Assuming for the purposes of assessment that this development will avoid impacting areas of rich carbon soils and areas that contain woodlands and forests.
Assuming creation of multi-modal stations and depot facilities.

Table 2.19: High Speed Rail summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)	Positive
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects		x	x	x

Table 2.20: High Speed Rail summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Major positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, long term.

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Negligible

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence for major positive effects in relation to transport as this development could divert emissions from private cars and aircraft to trains reducing the overall emissions, although there is uncertainty over the level of this modal shift, it is likely to occur over a long timeframe.
High confidence in minor negative effects in relation to industrial, manufacture and construction processes as due to the nature of this development significant quantities of carbon heavy materials will be required.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from buildings and waste as electricity is Assuming to be from renewable sources and limited waste will be generated.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects in relation to LULUCF as this development will require land take and vegetation maintenance.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

This development will provide high speed rail which has the potential to reduce domestic air travel to the UK and Europe and the associated transport GHG emissions. The indirect positive effects are likely influence travel across the UK and occur over the long term. There is low confidence in indirect positive effects as there is uncertainty to how much air travel will be reduced.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to displacement of emissions from private cars and air travel over a long time period

The scale of this effect could range from negligible to high positive depending on the level of uptake of train travel. If this development enables a significant amount of modal shift from private car and aeroplane to train, then a high positive effect is expected. Whereas, if this development enables to only a relatively small modal shift, negligible effects are expected.

Conclusion: Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

Uncertainty about the scale of these effects means there is low confidence in this conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Ensure that renewable energy is provided for running of the train services.

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused again or at least recycled.

Ensure that the development avoids high carbon soils or areas important for carbon sequestration.

Ensure limitations on comparable air routes and competitive pricing to support use of rail.

Hunterston Strategic Asset

Description

2.22 This proposed national development will support an increased mix of opportunities including port, electricity and hydrogen generation including servicing for offshore energy, carbon capture, aquaculture, business, commercial and industrial uses. Flood risk management, access, and biodiversity impacts will also be considered.

Assumptions

Assuming electricity generation from renewable sources. Electricity generation will be of at least 50 megawatts.
Assuming the development is on previously developed land.
Assuming the plant will be operational for at least 20-30 years.
Assuming this development will produce low carbon and renewable hydrogen.
Assuming hydrogen produced supports the transition to net zero and could be used for transport, heat and energy storage.
Assuming the development includes infrastructure for chemicals production associated with hydrogen, including ammonia production, for the purpose of energy storage or transportation.
Assumes some leakage of hydrogen, and scope for captured carbon and methane leakage in the process.
Assuming that some leakage may take place from the pipeline during distribution.
Assuming that the land is potentially contaminated and that some ground remediation works will be required, although the nature of these is unknown.
Assuming potential for upgraded access arrangements including to support active travel.
Assume potential for works to mitigate risk of flooding, including through sustainable flood risk management measures.
Assuming commercial and industrial activity on site.
Assuming most vehicles travelling to/from the site will be powered by fossil fuels in the short term. Over time vehicles are likely to transition to lower carbon alternatives such as electric vehicles or hydrogen fuelled HGV.

Table 2.21: Hunterston Strategic Asset summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)	Positive
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects		x	x	x

Table 2.22: Hunterston Strategic Asset summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, multiplier, long term.

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, long term.

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, long term.

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence in minor negative effects arising from transport as it is assumed that there will be an increase in transport movements and vehicles will be fossil fuel powered.
High confidence in minor positive effects in relation to electricity as it is assumed that more electricity will be produced than consumed by other processes at the site, although there is uncertainty over the scale of production of renewable energy in excess of 50 megawatts.
High confidence in minor negative effects from heat due to assumed increase in heat demand.
Low confidence in minor negative effects in relation to industrial processes as it is uncertain how much low carbon and renewable hydrogen respectively will be produced and uncertainty generally regarding the deployment of new and emerging technology.
Low confidence in minor positive effects from LULUCF as the development will enable carbon sequestration through sustainable flood management as it is assumed it will include green infrastructure, although the scale is uncertain.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

The development is likely to support renewable energy and renewable and low carbon hydrogen production which will enable displacement of GHG emissions from fossil fuel-based energy sources with and without carbon capture for electricity, transport and heat.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to support for renewable and low carbon hydrogen production, and electricity generation from renewable energy, increasing the renewable energy supply and security of supply over a long time period.

The scale of these effects could range from low to high positive depending on the scale of electricity generation and storage, and the scale of use of fossil fuels. This development can deliver high positive effects if it will generate and store a significant amount of renewable and lower carbon energy displacing emissions from current fossil fuels. However, if this development delivers only a small amount of renewable or lower carbon energy then low positive effects are expected.

Uncertainty about the scale of these effects means there is medium confidence in this conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused again or recycled.

Ensure that heat is renewable or low carbon.

Industrial Green Transition Zones

Description

2.23 Industrial Green Transition Zones will support the generation of significant economic opportunities while minimising carbon emissions. Technologies that will help Scotland transition to net-zero will be supported at these locations, with a particular focus on low carbon and zero emissions technologies including renewables and the generation, storage and distribution of hydrogen.

2.24 Industrial Green Transition Zones are the Scottish Cluster and Grangemouth Investment Zone.

2.25 The Scottish Cluster encompasses a Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) projects network and is a key strategic vehicle for industrial decarbonisation, energy generation, and the transportation and storage of captured carbon. The designation relates to projects that form a Scottish Cluster in the first instance specifically Peterhead, St Fergus and Grangemouth, as well as further industrial transition sites that are expected to emerge in the longer term. The creation of hydrogen and deployment of negative emissions technologies, utilising CCUS, at commercial scale.

2.26 Grangemouth Investment Zone will be a focus for transitioning the petro-chemicals industry and associated activities into a leading exemplar of industrial decarbonisation.

2.27 Decarbonisation could include opportunities for: renewable energy innovation; bioenergy; hydrogen production with carbon capture and storage; and repurposing of existing strategic and critical infrastructure such as pipelines.

Assumptions

Assuming that low carbon hydrogen production plant will be operational for 20-30 years.
Assuming low carbon production of hydrogen and bioenergy.
Assuming that some biomaterials (for bioenergy production) will be transported from within the UK, and some will be imported from overseas.
Assuming that bioenergy will only be used where other more sustainable alternatives are unavailable.
Assuming that majority of the emissions from burning bio fuels will be captured, however there is a scope for carbon leakage as CCUS can typically capture 95% of emissions.
Assuming hydrogen produced supports the transition to net zero and could be used for transport, heat and energy storage.
Assuming the development includes infrastructure for chemicals production associated with hydrogen, including ammonia production, for the purpose of energy storage or transportation.
Assuming some hydrogen may leak to the atmosphere. Assuming that oil and gas only used in combination with CCUS. Hydrogen when leaked, acts as an indirect GHG by reducing hydroxide and thus increasing methane abundance. Some emissions are not captured via CCUS.
Precise location of development unknown and whether this is brownfield or greenfield sites, therefore assumption of early focus on brownfield and partly greenfield.
Assuming the application of Carbon Capture and Storage technology to existing or replacement thermal power generation.
Assuming there will be some reuse of existing pipework at existing sites for CCUS purposes.
Assuming on or near shore geological storage of hydrogen.
Assuming long-term offshore storage of captured carbon. Assuming that improvements to utilities infrastructure will be delivered.
Assuming greater passenger/freight movement within the Forth. Assuming these vessels will be diesel powered but over the long-term transition to lower carbon alternatives such as LNG and new or upgraded ports facilities.
Assuming the use of carbon capture on existing emissions sources or implementing energy efficiency measures.
Assuming deployment of negative emissions technologies.
Assuming that net negative emissions technologies could include burning biomass (trees, willows, grasses) or could involve direct air carbon capture.
Assuming timeframe for carbon storage will be long term (>100 years).
Assuming Grangemouth Flood Protection Scheme (FPS) will include development of footpaths. This will encourage active travel.
Assuming Grangemouth FPS will comprise 25km of flood defences (including walls and embankments).
Assuming flood defences will not be decommissioned.
Assuming people will travel to Grangemouth via a mix of private vehicle and public/active transport modes (linked to transport improvements).
Assuming new or upgraded green and blue infrastructure.
Assuming vehicles are fuelled by current fossil fuels (petrol/diesel).
Assuming existing buildings will be repurposed where possible though some new buildings may be required.

Table 2.23: Industrial Green Transition Zones summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)					Negative
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects	x	x	x	x

Table 2.24: Industrial Green Transition Zones summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Moderate negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, long term.

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, long term.

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, long term.

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Negative Emissions Technologies

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net negative effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Low confidence in moderate negative effects from transport due to the uncertainty on how majority of hydrogen and captured carbon will be transported for storage and distribution domestically and for export and the potential for leakage.
Low confidence in minor positive effects for electricity, as this development supports low carbon energy generation but may increase electricity demand for some processes.
Medium confidence in minor positive effects for heat, as this development supports heat networks but the scale is unknown.
Low confidence in minor negative effects from industrial processes, due to high levels of embodied carbon and as the long-term reliability of carbon capture is untested.
High confidence in minor negative GHG balance from waste due to assumed low levels of waste generated.
High confidence in minor negative GHG balance from LULUCF, from land use disturbance from biomass harvesting releasing soil carbon.
Low confidence in minor positive GHG balance from NETs due to uncertain scale of development.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

This development is likely to enable low carbon hydrogen production as a lower carbon fuel for transport, heating and industry compared to use of fossil fuels without carbon capture and storage. Moreover, it is likely to displace the emissions from current energy sources and will enable carbon capture. A minor negative GHG balance is identified from LULUCF, from land use disturbance from biomass harvesting releasing soil carbon, but this is likely to be small scale.

There is a low confidence in the scale of indirect positive effects due to uncertainty over the scale of low carbon hydrogen production and extent to which the hydrogen will displace higher carbon energy sources in transport, industry and heating.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have net positive effects on lifecycle GHG emissions due to support for the transition to hydrogen from direct fossil fuel dependency using low carbon hydrogen production with carbon capture, utilisation and storage.

The scale of positive effect could range from low to very high. A low scale of effect would result from higher levels of increased transport emissions, lower levels of low carbon electricity generation, higher levels of fugitive emissions, smaller scale heat networks, and smaller scale NETs development. Conversely, if a greater amount of low carbon energy and hydrogen is produced, there are lower levels of fugitive emissions, more widespread heat networks and larger scale NETs development and wider deployment and use of hydrogen, this could result in a very high positive effect.

Uncertainty over the scale of these effects means there is low confidence in this conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Prioritise use of existing infrastructure on and offshore which can be refurbished, ensure that technologies for minimising leakage are in place.

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused again or recycled.

Islands Hub for Net Zero

Description

2.28 This national development supports proposed developments in the Western Isles, Shetland and Orkney island groups, for renewable energy generation, renewable hydrogen production, infrastructure and shipping, and associated opportunities in the supply chain for fabrication, research and development, in particular at the proposed Orkney Research and Innovation Campus. Any strategy for deployment of these technologies must enable decarbonisation at pace and cannot be used to justify unsustainable levels of fossil fuel extraction or impede Scotland’s just transition to net zero. The use of low and zero emission fuels will play a crucial role in decarbonising island and mainland energy use, shipping, strengthening energy security overall and creating a low carbon energy economy for the islands and the islanders. The developments will add value where they link into national and international energy, learning and research and development networks. There may also be opportunity for ports in the islands.

Assumptions

Assuming that this development will have a lifetime of at least 30 years.
Assuming that this development will increase marine vessel movements.
Assuming infrastructure to support renewable energy generation will include a mix of renewable energy technologies both on and offshore, and energy from low carbon fuels with abatement as appropriate.
Assuming carbon intensive materials, including metal for cabling.
Assuming large scale renewable energy generation will have a negative impact on LULUCF and will include loss of marine carbon sequestering habitats.
Large scale renewable hydrogen production, over at least 30 years’ time scales.
Assuming low carbon fuel produced supports the transition to net zero and could be used for transport, heat and energy storage.
Assuming the development includes infrastructure for chemicals production associated with hydrogen, including ammonia production, for the purpose of energy storage or transportation.
Assumes some leakage of hydrogen, and scope for captured carbon and methane leakage in the process.
Assuming renewable hydrogen production.
Assuming that the lower emissions fuels for shipping will include Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) distribution and storage. Marine vessels will travel to the island to refuel. Fuels include marine gas, oil and hydrogen.
Assuming most vessels will be fuelled by oil/gas. Assuming for the purposes of assessment at least some of the LNG will be imported from Middle East or North America.
Assume brownfield and greenfield land utilised for developments though brownfield will be prioritised.
Assuming that R&D will also require premises to carry out the work. Assume R&D will lead to further renewable energy generation in the future.
Assuming that supply chain for fabrication will enable the roll out of renewable energy because parts will be produced locally.
Assuming that R&D will increase innovation and efficiency enabling net zero emissions.

Table 2.25: Islands Hub for Net Zero summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)					Negative
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects		x	x	x

Table 2.26: Islands Hub for Net Zero summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Moderate negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, multiplier, medium to long term.

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, multiplier, medium to long term.

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, multiplier, medium to long term.

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Moderate negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, multiplier, medium to long term.

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Negligible positive
Regional, enabling, medium to long term

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net negative effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence in moderate negative effects arising from transport related emissions, due to an overall increase in emissions but uncertainty over the amount of hydrogen produced for transport, or levels of use of low carbon fuel.
Low confidence in minor positive effects in relation to electricity as it is uncertain how much electricity demand there will be for the development, and what proportions of the development's electricity needs will be met by renewable and non-renewable sources.
High confidence in minor negative effects from heat due to limited heat requirements.
Medium confidence in major negative effects from industrial processes, due to the amount of carbon heavy materials required for this development and use of fossil fuels.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from waste due to assumed low levels of waste and high levels of recycling.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects in relation to LULUCF as such scale of development will lead to disturbance of soil, vegetation and marine areas, although there is uncertainty over the scale of this effect.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

The development includes hydrogen production. Hydrogen can provide low carbon fuel for transport, heating and industry compared to use of fossil fuels. Low confidence in indirect positive effects due to uncertainty over the scale of renewable hydrogen production.

The development is likely to support R&D activities which have the potential to enhance innovation and efficiency for net zero developments at a national scale, both enabling further development and supporting new developments over the long term.

Delivering developments on already developed land is likely to lead to reduced emissions from LULUCF as it is likely to avoid disturbance of soil and vegetation.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to uncertainty of the scale and type of renewable energy production, renewable hydrogen production, distribution and storage, supporting infrastructure, supply chain for fabrication and R&D, and the use of lower emission fuels for shipping. It is assumed that these developments will be large scale and long-term and would outweigh the negative effects from the embodied carbon in the infrastructure.

Indirect positive effects from the support for the renewables industry and production of renewable hydrogen are judged on balance to outweigh the negative direct effects identified due to relatively minor nature of these direct effects, which during the construction and decommissioning phases would be short term in nature. The positive indirect effects identified would be experienced throughout the operational phase of the development.

The scale of this effect could range from low to high positive, depending on the scale of renewable energy and low carbon fuels produced over time. For example, smaller scale renewable energy and hydrogen production will likely have low positive effects. However, if this is deployed at a large scale, and is utilised across sectors, it could have high positive effects.

Conclusion: Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both the direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

Uncertainty about the nature and scale of these effects means that there is medium confidence in this overall conclusion

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused again or recycled.

Provide low carbon transport options to the sites to reduce car dependency.

National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network

Description

2.29 Proposed national development for upgrading and provision of additional active travel.

Assumptions

Assuming the network is delivered across Scotland.
Assuming that a significant amount of people especially in urban areas will use active travel for their daily commute.
Assuming that the active travel network will not be decommissioned.
Assuming no additional waste generated overall from operation.
Assuming increased vegetation along travel corridors.
Assuming that majority of the electricity for street lighting will come from renewable sources.
Assuming that majority of materials will be recycled.

Table 2.27: National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)	Positive
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	N/A				N/A
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects	x	x

Table 2.28: National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Super positive (more than 10%)

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Neutral

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence in super positive effects for transport related to the assumed greater uptake of active and sustainable modes of travel facilitated by the construction and enhancement of the walking and cycling network across Scotland, in addition to better linkages with public transport and delivery of multi-modal hubs. However, there is uncertainty over levels of uptake of active and sustainable travel, and the extent and scale of the active travel network. Super positive effects would only arise with a high level of journeys made by active or sustainable modes of travel.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects for electricity, heat, industrial processes and waste, due to assumed low levels of demand for electricity and heat, low generate of waste and quantity of materials required.
Medium confidence in positive effects for LULUCF from increased carbon sequestration, assuming there is increased vegetation planted along active travel routes, partly balanced by some negative effects during construction and decommissioning phases.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

No indirect effects identified.

Overall summary of effect

It is likely that this development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to the support for low carbon and active travel.

The scale of this effect could range from high to very high positive assuming a high level of uptake and a long timeframe for the benefits. If this development facilitates a shift in travel behaviour, with a significant amount of people travelling through the network via active modes, very high positive effects are expected. These very high positive effects is likely to be further enhanced by opportunities for carbon sequestration linked to the provision of green and blue infrastructure. However, if uptake of active travel is less, and there are fewer opportunities for carbon sequestration this may reduce to high positive.

Uncertainty about the nature and scale of these effects means that there is low confidence in this overall conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused or recycled.

Ensure that waste is minimised during the construction phase.

Pumped Hydro Storage

Description

2.30 The proposed national development is to deliver additional capacity at existing sites as well as new sites. It will include expansion of the capacity of the Cruachan.

Assumptions

Assuming removal of surface infrastructure and restoration to natural state on decommissioning.
Assuming that if new or expanded hydro power plant capacity is not built there will be a continued requirement for rapid capacity power generation to provide electricity when there is a surge in demand. This is currently provided by fossil fuel sources, although it is assuming that future technologies will provide low carbon alternatives.
Based on the lifetime of existing Cruachan, the period of operation of enhanced capacity at Cruachan is Assuming to be 50-100 years.
Assuming that the new power station will generate significant additional capacity.
Assuming construction of a second turbine hall, additional turbines, transformers, new or enlarged tunnels and new or enlarged reservoir.
Assuming majority of sub surface infrastructure would be left in situ.
Due to the upland location, assuming that reservoir construction will impact on high carbon soils. Sediment build up in the dam will cause release of carbon dioxide and methane on release of the water during operation.
Assuming upgraded grid capacity will be required, including sub-stations, transformers and transmission cables.

Table 2.29: Pumped Hydro Storage summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)	Positive
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects	x	x	x

Table 2.30: Pumped Hydro Storage summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

N/A

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Super positive (more than 10%)

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, long term.

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

N/A

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence in minor negative effects in relation transport, due Assuming transport impacts during construction and high volumes of construction material.
Medium confidence in super positive effects in relation to electricity assuming that the energy required for pumping water will be renewable, and the development will operate over a long time period.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from industrial processes as this development will require a significant amount of carbon heavy materials, but the scale of new hydroelectric development and potential releases of carbon dioxide and methane from operation is uncertain. The scale of effects will be dependent on whether the development relates to upgrades to existing facilities or construction of new infrastructure.
Low confidence in minor negative effects from waste as it is unknown whether materials would be left in place after decommissioning or removed.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from LULUCF as the locations of a new reservoirs are unknown and may lead to a significant loss of vegetation and soil.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

The development indirectly enables further renewable energy development across Scotland in the medium to long term by increasing storage capacity, and displacing fossil fuel emissions. There is low confidence in the scale of indirect positive effects due to uncertainty over the scale of other storage capacity for renewable energy, and the scale of increased pumped hydro-electric storage capacity.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to the facilitation and enabling of renewable energy development across Scotland from the provision of energy storage and rapid capacity during demand peaks.

The scale of this effect could range from medium to very high depending on the project details, the location and frequency of use. If the development enables significantly more renewable electricity to be generated, whilst minimising energy associated with construction and decommissioning, and effects on soil carbon, a very high positive effect will be expected. However, if renewable electricity generation provided by the development is lower, and there are more significant amounts of energy and carbon intensive materials used during construction, this positive effect might reduce to medium. Furthermore, significant disturbance to soils and release of soil carbon is likely to reduce the effect to medium.

Uncertainty about the nature and scale of these effects means that there is low confidence in this overall conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Ensure that the design of the extension of the hydro power plant and extensions of other existing facilities will have minimal impacts on LULUCF.

Ensure that sediment creation and build up is managed to reduce emissions.

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused again or recycled.

Stranraer Gateway

Description

2.31 The proposed national development is to deliver a high-quality place-based regeneration to support the wider population of southwest Scotland and provide a platform for future investment, including commercial, residential and industrial development.

Assumptions

Assuming use of fossil fuels by the marina.
Assuming for purposes of assessment sustainable transport connectivity refers to rail for freight and passengers.
Assuming for purposes of assessment potential for transport infrastructure upgrades including road and rail.
Assuming new or upgraded infrastructure to support the distribution and use of low carbon fuels.
Assuming that this development will be operational for at least 30 years.
Assuming that heat will come from lower carbon sources such as hydrogen.
Assuming that majority of materials will include concrete and steel.
Assuming that this development will be delivered on a brownfield site.
Assuming that energy efficiency measures will be in place.
Assumes electricity to power sustainable transport will be renewable.
Assuming that heat will come from lower carbon sources.

Table 2.31: Stranraer Gateway summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)	Negligible				Negligible
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects				x

Table 2.32: Stranraer Gateway summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Negligible positive

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Negligible positive

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net negligible effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Low confidence in minor positive effects from transport due to uncertainty over the scale of the development and impact on journeys generated, balanced by some assumed increase in rail transport and scale of use of low carbon fuels.
Medium confidence in increased electricity and heat demand due to assumed low levels of increased demand and uncertainty over the extent of renewable energy or heat generation.
Low confidence in industrial, manufacture and construction processes due to uncertainty over the scale of development.
Medium confidence in emissions from waste due to assumed net increase in waste but uncertainty over quantity of waste generated.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from LULUCF due to assumed net loss of soil carbon from development, despite assumed development on brownfield land.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a negligible positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions. The development is likely to support low carbon fuels distribution. The scale of indirect effects is likely to be negligible, however there is low confidence as it is uncertain how much low carbon fuel will be distributed via this development.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that the development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due positive effects from use and distribution of low carbon fuels, increased transport efficiency from new rail facilities and transportation which is judged to outweigh the negative effects from increased transport emissions.

The scale of this effect is likely to be low.

Uncertainty about the nature and scale of these effects means that there is low confidence in this overall conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused or recycled.

Ensure that energy efficiency solutions are in place within the developments.

Support low carbon fuel for marine vessels.

Minimise disturbance to marine sediments.

Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure

Description

2.32 This national development supports renewable electricity generation (of or exceeding 50MW), repowering, and expansion of the electricity grid for domestic consumption and export to the UK and beyond. This development will include new infrastructure to support off-shore renewables.

Assumptions

Assuming that not all infrastructure will be decommissioned but there will be the potential to repower or install lifetime extensions for all kinds of renewable energy technologies.
Assuming a range of different renewable energy technologies.
Assuming that the development of the electricity generation and transmission infrastructure improves resilience and capacity in the energy network and could support the development of a range of renewable energy generation and storage technologies.
Assuming battery storage is used for electricity storage purposes.
Assuming that this infrastructure will be in place for at least 25 years.
Carbon footprint of development materials is high due to extensive metal component. Transmission energy losses are from renewable energy derived sources and therefore although they reduce the efficiency of the power generation, they do not increase the GHG emissions.
Assuming that redundant cables will remain in the ground after decommissioning.
Assuming that actions will be taken to reinstate the surrounding ground in order to ensure that carbon sequestration will be possible when development is operating.
Assuming disturbance to high carbon soils.
Assuming that this development is necessary to enable the full potential of renewable energy.
Assuming that this includes both subsea cables and land-based transmission lines.
Assuming that this infrastructure includes converter stations and substations and switching stations.

Table 2.33: Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)	Positive
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects	x	x	x

Table 2.34: Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, long term.

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Major positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Significant positive
National, enabling, long term

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Neutral

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Negligible positive
National, enabling, long term

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Moderate negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
National, enabling, long term.

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Neutral

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence in major positive effects arising from electricity, as this development will deliver large scale renewable energy generation displacing emissions from current fossil fuel energy sources, however there is uncertainty how many such developments will be delivered.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from transport, as it is uncertain how many transport journeys will be generated.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from waste due to assumed low levels of waste produced.
Low confidence in moderate negative effects in relation to industrial processes due to uncertainty over the extent and GHG emissions of the materials required, although high confidence in the carbon intensity of the materials.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

The proposed national development facilitates renewable energy generation which may support hydrogen production and provide low carbon fuel for transport, heating and energy for industrial processes compared to use of fossil fuels.

The indirect effect is judged to be of super scale, but with medium confidence due to uncertainty on the actual scale of renewable energy and hydrogen production.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to potential for substantial generation and transmission of renewable electricity.

The scale of positive effect is assumed to be between medium and very high positive, depending on the scale of renewable energy generation and the role of the development in facilitating further renewable energy development. A medium scale of effect would result from higher embodied carbon in construction infrastructure, and lower levels of renewable energy generation and use. Conversely, lower embodied carbon in construction infrastructure, and higher levels of renewable energy generation would result in a very high scale of effect.

Conclusion: Depending on the nature and scale of renewable projects taken forward and associated electricity infrastructure, and considering both the direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

Greater certainty about the nature and scale of these effects means that there is medium to high confidence in this overall conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused again or recycled.

Ensure that cabling and supporting infrastructure avoids carbon rich soils and vegetation that store or absorb significant amounts of carbon.

Urban Mass/Rapid Transit Networks

Description

2.33 The proposed national development is to deliver low carbon transport solutions to support reduction in private car use in Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow providing better access to employment and supporting investment.

Assumptions

Assuming 7 million journeys annually on the Edinburgh tram network (7.4m in 2019).
Over 12.7 million journeys annually on the Glasgow Metro.
Assuming trams, buses and light rail will be powered from low carbon fuel or electricity.
Assuming electricity will be low carbon/ renewable.
Assuming new infrastructure will be required, for example new track, road, passenger facilities, depots and fuelling infrastructure.

Table 2.35: Urban Mass/Rapid Transit Networks summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)	Positive
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	N/A				N/A
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects	x	x	x

Table 2.36: Urban Mass/Rapid Transit Networks summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Major positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Neutral

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Neutral

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions.

Medium confidence in significant positive effects from transport related to the assumed greater uptake of sustainable travel and journeys facilitated by the construction and enhancement of the light rail network across Scotland's main cities over the long term. However, there is uncertainty over levels of future passenger use, and the full extent of the networks.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects during construction and decommissioning phases in relation to industrial, manufacture and construction processes.
High confidence in minor negative effects from waste during construction and decommissioning due to assumed low levels of waste produced.
Medium confidence in minor negative from LULUCF during construction and decommissioning due to assumed new infrastructure required.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

No indirect effects identified.

Overall summary of effect

It is likely that this proposed national development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions as the long-term positive effects of three of Scotland's major cities using sustainable transport powered by low carbon electricity is likely to outweigh the short-term negative effects.

The scale of this effect could range from medium to very high positive depending on the network extent and level of uptake. If this development facilitates a shift in travel behaviour, with a significant amount of people travelling via the mass/rapid transit networks very high positive effects are expected. However if uptake is less, positive effects may reduce to medium positive.

Uncertainty about the nature and scale of these effects means that there is medium confidence in this overall conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Commitment to the use of low carbon/renewable sources of energy to power the trams and light rail developments.

Ensure integration of the mass transit networks with active travel networks.

Increase the roll out of mass transit networks to other major towns and cities in Scotland.

Urban Sustainable, Blue and Green Drainage Solutions

Description

2.34 The proposed national development will deliver drainage infrastructure in the Glasgow and Edinburgh City and wider catchment areas.

Assumptions

Assuming that this development will deliver water and drainage infrastructure.
This development enables managing flood risk, which includes infrastructure development.
Assuming some built engineered structures but with priority for nature-based solutions.
For the purposes of the assessment, assuming development will largely be on previously developed land.
Assuming that this project will deliver green infrastructure.

Table 2.37: Urban Sustainable, Blue and Green Drainage Solutions summary of the range of effects
	Positive				Negative
Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)	Positive
Summary of GHG balance (indirect effects)	Positive
Overall summary of effects	Very high	High	Medium	Low	Low	Medium	High	Very High
Overall summary of effects			x	x

Table 2.38: Urban Sustainable, Blue and Green Drainage Solutions summary GHG balance

Sector emission source

Transport

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Electricity

GHG balance (direct effects)

Neutral

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Buildings (heat)

GHG balance (direct effects)

Neutral

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

Minor positive
Supra regional, medium to long term

Sector emission source

Waste

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor negative

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Sector emission source

LULUCF

GHG balance (direct effects)

Minor positive

GHG balance (indirect effects)

N/A

Summary of GHG balance (direct effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on direct lifecycle GHG emissions. This is based on:

Medium confidence in minor positive effects in relation to transport due to minor levels of maintenance travel.
Low confidence in minor negative effects from industrial, manufacture and construction processes due to uncertainty over the carbon intensity of the materials used.
Medium confidence in minor negative effects from waste due to assumed limited waste produced.
Medium confidence in minor positive effects in relation to LULUCF as this development is likely to enhance carbon sequestration, although the scale of the effect is uncertain.

Summary of lifecycle GHG balance (indirect effects)

This proposed national development is likely to result in a net positive effect on indirect lifecycle GHG emissions.

The proposed national development reduces flood risk, and there is medium confidence in minor positive effects due to reduced flood damage and embodied carbon in replacement materials due to uncertainty on the scale of flood damage avoided.

Overall summary of effect

When direct and indirect effects are combined, it is likely that this development will have a net positive effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to reduced flood risk and delivery of more green spaces that will enhance carbon sequestration.

The scale of effects could range from low to medium positive depending on how much flood damage is avoided and how many green spaces are delivered. A low scale of effect would result from minimal use of nature-based drainage solutions and the greater use of materials which contain higher embodied carbon. Conversely, if the drainage solutions are widespread and deliver green infrastructure, they will reduce greenhouse gas emissions due to limiting flood damage, with a medium positive effect.

Greater certainty about the nature and scale of these effects means that there is medium confidence in this overall conclusion.

Additional mitigation and enhancement

Ensure that green infrastructure is fully exploited to enhance carbon sequestration.

Prioritise the reuse of materials in construction, use of low carbon construction materials and ensure upon decommissioning waste materials are reused or recycled.

Contact

Email: Chief.Planner@gov.scot

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Information

2. Lifecycle GHG Emissions of Proposed National Developments

Introduction

Aberdeen Harbour

Description

Assumptions

Central Scotland Green Network

Description

Assumptions

Chapelcross Power Station Redevelopment

Description

Assumptions

Circular Economy Materials Management Facilities

Description

Assumptions

Clyde Mission

Description

Assumptions

Digital Fibre Network

Description

Dundee Waterfront

Edinburgh Waterfront

Description

Assumptions

High Speed Rail

Description

Hunterston Strategic Asset

Description

Assumptions

Industrial Green Transition Zones

Description

Assumptions

Islands Hub for Net Zero

Description

Assumptions

National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network

Description

Assumptions

Pumped Hydro Storage

Description

Stranraer Gateway

Description

Assumptions

Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure

Description

Assumptions

Urban Mass/Rapid Transit Networks

Description

Urban Sustainable, Blue and Green Drainage Solutions

Description

Assumptions

Contact

There is a problem