Reconviction Rates in Scotland: 2022 to 2023 Offender Cohort
Statistics on reconvictions in Scotland are presented up to the latest cohort of 2022 to 2023
Part of
Reconvictions in Court
Headline figures
The reconviction rate for the 2022 to 2023 offender cohort was 26.1%. This means that of everyone who was released from custody or who was given a non-custodial sentence in 2022 to 2023, 26.1% were convicted of another offence within 12 months. This figure is a decrease from the 2021 to 2022 cohort who had a reconviction rate of 27.3%.
In the 2022 to 2023 offender cohort, each person was reconvicted an average of 0.44 times. This is a 4% decrease from the 2021 to 2022 cohort where the average number of reconvictions per person was 0.46.
Of all the people who were convicted of a crime or offence in 2023 to 2024, 37% were convicted for the first time, the same as in 2022 to 2023.
Longer term trends
Between 2013 to 2014 and 2022 to 2023 the reconviction rate decreased from 28.5% to 26.1%. Over the same period, the average number of reconvictions per offender decreased from 0.52 to 0.44.
Figure 2a: reconviction rates have decreased gradually over the last few decades
Reconviction rate in Scotland, 1997 to 1998 to 2022 to 2023
Figure 2b: The average number of reconvictions per offender has also fallen
Average number of reconvictions per offender in Scotland, 1997 to 1998 to 2022 to 2023
The proportion of convictions to first time offenders has varied between 31% and 37% over the last 13 years. The most recent figure of 37% is the highest over the time period
The number of people in the offender cohort has decreased from 42,177 in 2013 to 2014 to 29,435 in 2022 to 2023. This long term decrease is reflected in the decrease in overall convictions seen in the Criminal Proceedings Statistics.
Reconvictions by age and sex
Males in the 2022 to 2023 cohort had a reconviction rate of 26.6% and an average of 0.44 reconvictions per offender. Females in the 2022 to 2023 cohort had a reconviction rate of 23.7% and an average of 0.41 reconvictions per offender.
There was a decrease in reconviction rates for both males and females between the 2021 to 2022 and 2022 to 2023 offender cohorts.
Males made up 83% of the offender cohort in 2022 to 2023. This proportion has remained quite consistent over the last decade.
Younger age groups in the 2022 to 2023 cohort had higher reconviction rates than older age groups. 31.9% of offenders aged under 21 were reconvicted within 12 months, compared with 20.2% of those aged over 40.
Offenders aged under 21 were the only age group to have an increase in reconviction rate between the 2021 to 2022 and 2022 to 2023 cohorts.
Since 2013 to 2014, reconviction rates have decreased for all age groups up to age 30 and increased for age groups over 30. The average number of reconvictions per offender has decreased for all age groups since the 2013 to 2014 cohort.
Figure 3a: Younger males have higher reconviction rates than older males, but the gap has narrowed in recent years
Reconviction rates in Scotland by age group, males, 1997 to 1998 to 2022 to 2023
Figure 3b: Younger females have higher reconviction rates than older females, but the difference is smaller than for males
Reconviction rates in Scotland by age group, females, 1997 to 1998 to 2022 to 2023
Reconvictions by crime
Of the 2022 to 2023 offender cohort, 42.8 % of those with an index conviction for a crime of dishonesty were reconvicted within 12 months. This is the highest reconviction rate of all crime groups.
The crime group with the lowest reconviction rate was Sexual offences, with 13.3% for the 2022 to 2023 cohort.
Those with an index crime of dishonesty had an average of 0.92 reconvictions per offender. This compares to an average of 0.19 reconvictions per offender with an index sexual offence.
Figure 4: Offenders convicted for a crime of dishonesty are more likely to be reconvicted than those convicted for other crimes
Reconviction rates in Scotland by index crime, 1997 to 1998 to 2022 to 2023
Domestic abuse reconvictions
The Abusive Behaviour and Sexual Harm (Scotland) Act 2016 created a statutory aggravation of domestic abuse, which came into force on 24 April 2017. An offence is aggravated if in committing the offence the person intends to cause or is reckless about causing their partner or ex-partner to suffer physical or psychological harm. The aggravation requires to be proven in court to apply to a conviction. It is taken into account in sentencing if proven. If the aggravation is not proven in court, it should be removed from the court record.
In 2022 to 2023, there were 4,135 offenders who had been convicted for a crime with a statutory domestic abuse aggravator. Of these 17.8% were reconvicted of any crime within a year and 7.1% were reconvicted of another crime with a statutory domestic abuse aggravator.
Custodial sentences
Offenders in the 2022 to 2023 cohort who had a custodial sentence for their index disposal had a reconviction rate of 42.5%. This is the highest reconviction rate of all disposals (with the exception of Drug treatment and testing orders which are only given to a small number of people).
This was a small decrease from the 2021 to 2022 cohort which had a reconviction rate of 43.0%. It was also a decrease from the 2013 to 2014 cohort which had a reconviction rate of 45.1%.
The average number of reconvictions per offender released from custody in 2022 to 2023 was 0.77, the same as the previous year.
Of those given a custodial sentence in 2023 to 2024, 66% had at least one previous custodial sentence in the preceding 10 years, with 35% having between 3 to 10 and 11% having over 10.
Figure 5: Offenders released from custody were more likely to be reconvicted than those with other index disposals
Reconviction rates in Scotland by index disposal, 1997 to 1998 to 2022 to 2023
Extended sentences
Extended Sentences are custodial sentences given for sexual crimes, or violent crimes that attract a custodial sentence of four years or more. Extended Sentences have a period of supervision of up to 10 years in the community after the custodial sentence. Reconviction rates for Extended Sentences, like other custodial sentences, are based on the estimated release date from the custodial part of the sentence.
Of the cohort finishing an extended sentence in 2022 to 2023, 7.7% were reconvicted within a year, a decrease from the previous cohort (9.7% in 2021 to 2022).
Those finishing an extended sentence in 2022 to 2023 were reconvicted on average 0.08 times.
Non-custodial sentences
Community payback orders (CPOs) are the most widely used community sentence, and in 2022 to 2023 there was a cohort of 8,039 people with a CPO. Of this cohort, 28.6% were reconvicted within a year, almost the same as the previous cohort (28.7% reconvicted).
People given a Restriction of Liberty Orders (RLO) in 2021 to 2022 had a reconviction rate of 33.0%.
The highest reconviction rate was for people given a Drug Treatment and Testing Order at 56.8% (it should be noted though that this was quite a small cohort of only 132 people in 2022 to 2023).
Of the 8,673 people given a monetary disposal in 2022 to 2023, 19.4% were reconvicted within 12 months. For the 6,448 people given an ‘other disposal’ 19.6% were reconvicted within 12 months.
It is important to understand that different disposals are more likely to be given for certain crimes. For example, custodial sentences, particularly extended ones, are more likely to be given for more serious crimes and monetary disposals are more likely to be given for less serious crimes. This makes it difficult to say whether a particular disposal is affecting the reconviction rate, or whether the crimes associated with that disposal are having a larger effect.
Sentence length of custodial index conviction
Short custodial sentences have high reconviction rates and long sentences have low reconviction rates due to association with different types of crime. Offenders who commit relatively less serious crimes but in high volumes are more likely to be reconvicted and these offenders are more likely to get short custodial sentences. In contrast, longer custodial sentences are given to offenders who commit more serious crimes, but these offenders tend to commit these crimes in low volumes, and hence fewer are reconvicted.
Offenders released from custodial sentences of three months or less in 2022 to 2023 had a reconviction rate of 60.3%, the highest of all disposals.
The reconviction rate for offenders released from custodial sentences of over four years was 10.0%. The reconviction rate for offenders released from sentences of 1 year or less was 53.2%.
Conviction history prior to index conviction
Conviction history is a strong predictor for the likelihood of reconviction, as reconviction rates increase with increasing numbers of previous reconvictions. This pattern holds true even when age, sex, or disposal (all of which have an association with the likelihood of reconviction) are taken into account.
The reconviction rate for offenders in the 2022 to 2023 cohort with no previous convictions was 10.0%. This compares to a reconviction rate of 47.1% for offenders with more than 10 convictions.
Two-year reconviction rates
Reconviction rates in Scotland were reported with a two-year follow-up period before the 2009 to 2010 cohort bulletin. After this point, the focus has been on a follow-up period of one year rather than two years as, in general, the one-year rate tracks the two-year rate, and has the benefit of being more timely. Two-year reconviction rates are listed in Table 14.
For the cohort who were released from custody or given a non-custodial sentence in 2021 to 2022, 38.8% were reconvicted in the following 24 months. Offenders were reconvicted an average of 0.86 times.
There has been a decrease in the two-year reconviction rate over the last few decades that mirrors the single year reconviction rate.