Reconviction Rates in Scotland: 2021-22 Offender Cohort

Main findings

Headline figures

• the reconviction rate for the 2021-22 cohort of offenders was 27.1%, this is almost the same as the reconviction rate for 2020-21
• this means that for everyone released from custody or given a non-custodial sentence in 2021-22, 27.1% were convicted of another offence within a year
• the average number of reconvictions per offender increased by 1% from 0.44 in 2020-21 to 0.45 in 2021-22
• of all the people who were convicted of an offence in 2022-23, 37% were first time offenders (for at least 10 years), this is an increase from 34% in 2021-22

Longer term trends

• between 2012-13 and 2021-22 the reconviction rate decreased from 28.9% to 27.1%
• at the same time, the average number of reconvictions per offender decreased from 0.53 in 2012-13 to 0.45 in 2021-22
• the proportion of convictions to first time offenders has varied between 31% and 37% over the last 12 years, the most recent figure of 37% is the highest over the time period
• there were 26,021 convicted people in the 2021-22 offender cohort, a 23% increase on the 2020-21 cohort (which was heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic) and a 51% decrease from the 1997-98 cohort
• this decrease reflects the decrease in overall convictions seen in the Criminal Proceedings Statistics

Figure 2: Reconvictions have decreased over the last few decades in Scotland

Reconviction rate and the average number of reconvictions per offender: 1997-98 to 2021-22 cohort

Reconvictions by age and sex

• males in the 2021-22 cohort had a reconviction rate of 27.5% compared with females who had a reconviction rate of 24.7%
• the average number of reconvictions per offender was 0.45 for males and 0.44 for females
• males made up 84% of the 2021-22 cohort of offenders
• younger age groups in the 2021-22 cohort were more likely to be reconvicted within a year, the highest reconviction rate was amongst those aged under 21 (31.0%) although they only made up 7% of the cohort
• the lowest rate was amongst those aged over 40 (21.0%) who made up 32% of the cohort
• in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, reconviction rates for males were strongly related to age with older age groups much less likely to be reconvicted than younger ones
• in recent years, the reconviction rates for males has become very similar for all age groups under 40, figure 3 shows this very clearly
• figure 4 shows that for females the association with age is a little less clear with all age groups under 30 having very similar reconviction rates as far back as 1997-98
• for both males and females, reconviction rates have fallen since 1997-98 for people under 30, but increased in both the 31-40 and over 40 age groups

Figure 3: Reconviction rates have fallen in males under 30

Reconviction rates for males in Scotland by age group, 1997-98 to 2021-22

Figure 4: Female reconviction rates show a similar pattern to males, but without the high historic rates for under 21s

Reconviction rates for females in Scotland by age group, 1997-98 to 2021-22

Reconvictions by crime

• people in the 2021-22 offender cohort with an index conviction for dishonesty were the most likely to be reconvicted, with a reconviction rate of 43.4%
• those with an index conviction for a sexual offence were the least likely to be reconvicted at a rate of 10.6%
• this has been a consistent pattern since the 1997-98 cohort
• people with an index conviction for dishonesty were most likely to be reconvicted for another crime of dishonesty (28.5%)
• for all index convictions combined, the most common reconviction was for non-sexual crimes of violence (15.4% of all offenders)

Figure 5: People convicted of crimes of dishonesty have consistently had the highest reconviction rate since 1997-98

Reconviction rates by crime type in Scotland 1997-98 to 2021-22

Figure 6: Non-sexual crimes of violence was the most common crime to be reconvicted of for the 2021-22 cohort.

Reconviction rates for the 2021-22 cohort by index crime and reconviction crime

Domestic abuse index crimes and offences

The crimes and offences counted here as domestic abuse index convictions are crimes and offences with either the statutory domestic abuse aggravator, or the non-statutory domestic abuse identifier. This is not the same as the separate crime of domestic abuse (which was introduced by the Domestic Abuse (Scotland) Act 2018) which in these statistics in included in the category of ‘Non-sexual crimes of violence’.

• offenders with a domestic abuse index crime were more likely to be reconvicted for a non-domestic abuse crime than a domestic abuse crime
• of the 2021-22 cohort, 15.8% of offenders with an index crime with the statutory domestic abuse aggravation were reconvicted of any crime within a year
• 4.7% were reconvicted of a crime with a statutory domestic abuse aggravation (table A)
• similarly, 9.8% of the cohort with an index crime marked with a domestic abuse identifier were reconvicted of another crime with a domestic abuse identifier compared with 20.5% who were reconvicted of any crime

Custodial sentences

The “index disposal” is the sentence received for an index conviction (see Annex Table A1 and Annex A5 for definitions). If a person is convicted for more than one charge in a set of proceedings, then the charge that receives the most serious disposal is counted as the index disposal (see Annex A4).

• people who had a custodial sentence as their index disposal had the highest rate of reconviction in the 2021-22 cohort (With the exception of Drug Treatment and Testing Orders which only affect a small number of people)
• the reconviction rate for offenders released from custody in the 2021-22 cohort was 42.8%, an increase from the 2020-21 rate of 39.6%
• the average number of reconvictions per offender released from custody increased by 13% from 0.67 for the 2020-21 cohort to 0.76 for the 2021-22 cohort
• of those convicted in 2022-23, 25.1% had a previous custodial sentence in the past 10 years, 11.5% of offenders had 3 to 10 previous custodial sentences, and 2.9% had over 10 previous custodial sentences
• of those given a custodial sentence in 2022-23, 69.2% had at least one previous custodial sentence in the past 10 years, with 36.3% having between 3 to 10 and 11.7% having over 10

Extended sentences

Extended Sentences are custodial sentences given for sexual crimes, or violent crimes that attract a custodial sentence of four years or more. Extended Sentences have a period of supervision of up to 10 years in the community after the custodial sentence. Reconviction rates for Extended Sentences, like other custodial sentences, are based on the estimated release date from the custodial part of the sentence.

• of the cohort finishing an extended sentence in 2021-22, 9.7% were reconvicted within a year, almost the same as the previous cohort (9.9% in 2020-21)
• those finishing an extended sentence in 2021-22 were reconvicted on average 0.11 times

Figure 7: Custodial sentences have the highest reconviction rates of all index disposals for the 2021-22 cohort

Reconviction rates in Scotland by index disposal, 1997-98 to 2021-22

Footnote: In this chart the custody category also included extended sentences and supervised release orders (SROs).

Non-custodial sentences

• community payback orders are the most widely used community sentence, and in 2021-22 there was a cohort of 6,783 people with a CPO
• of that cohort, 28.4% were reconvicted within a year, almost the same as the previous cohort (28.1% reconvicted)
• people given a Restriction of Liberty Orders (RLO) in 2021-22 had a reconviction rate of 32.0%
• the highest reconviction rate was for people given a Drug Treatment and Testing Order at 60.4% (it should be noted though that this was quite a small cohort of only 169 people in 2021-22)
• there was also a cohort of 7,463 people given a monetary disposal who had a reconviction rate of 19.9% and 5,247 people given an ‘other disposal’ who had a reconviction rate of 20.4%

It is important to understand that different disposals are more likely to be given for certain crimes. For example custodial sentences, particularly extended ones are more likely to be given for more serious crimes and monetary disposals are more likely to be given for less serious crimes. This makes it difficult to say whether a particular disposal is affecting the reconviction rate, or whether the crimes associated with that disposal are having a larger effect.

Sentence length of custodial index conviction

Short custodial sentences have high reconviction rates and long sentences have low reconviction rates due to association with different types of crime. Offenders who commit relatively less serious crimes but in high volumes are more likely to be reconvicted and these offenders are more likely to get short custodial sentences. In contrast, longer custodial sentences are given to offenders who commit more serious crimes, but these offenders tend to commit these crimes in low volumes, and hence fewer are reconvicted.

• the reconviction rate for custodial sentences of three months or less for the  2021-22 cohort was 62.8%, the highest of all disposals shown in figure 8
• the rate for sentences over four years was 5.6%, the lowest of all disposals

Figure 8: Short custodial sentences and DTTOs have the largest reconviction rates

Conviction rate by disposal and custodial sentence length in Scotland 2021-22. The category, Custody, shows reconviction rates for all offenders discharged from a prison or young offender institutions in 2021-22. SROs and Extended Sentences are presented separately from the Custody category. Custodial sentence lengths includes all custodial sentences (prison, young offender institutions, Extended Sentences, and SROs).

Conviction history prior to index conviction

Conviction history is a strong predictor for the likelihood of reconviction, as reconviction rates increase with increasing numbers of previous reconvictions. This pattern holds true even when age, sex, or disposal (all of which have an association with the likelihood of reconviction) are taken into account (Table 11).

• the reconviction rate for people in the 2021-22 cohort with no previous convictions was 10%, compared with 47% for males with more than 10 convictions and 49% for females with more than 10 previous convictions

Two-year reconviction rates

Reconviction rates in Scotland were reported with a two-year follow-up period before the 2009-10 cohort bulletin. After this point, the focus has been on a follow-up period of one year rather than two years as, in general, the one-year rate tracks the two-year rate, and has the benefit of being more timely. Two year reconviction rates are listed in Table 14.

• there has been a decrease in the two year reconviction rate over the last few decades that mirrors the single year reconviction rate
• for the cohort who were released from custody or given a non-custodial sentence in 2020-21, 39.5% were reconvicted in the following 24 months
• this is an increase on the cohort from 2019-20 and is likely to have been affected by the closure of courts during the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent backlog of cases
• offenders were reconvicted an average of 0.88 times