Prison population projections: November 2023 edition
This report presents short term prison population projections for the six month period from October 2023 to March 2024. This is the second issue of projections to be published since the COVID-19 pandemic. They have been produced using ‘microsimulation’ scenario modelling which simulates prison arrivals and departures, to estimate the number of individuals in prison on a particular date in the future. The first issue of the Scottish prison population projections  provided a detailed overview of the modelling technique used.
The projections are produced to help inform decision making, planning and policy development. These projections do not take account of the complexity of the prison population (as this is not the intention) and are meant for high level policy development rather than for day to day management of those in prison.
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