Highly Protected Marine Areas - policy framework and site selection guidelines: sustainability appraisal

4 Results of the Sustainability Appraisal

4.1 Environmental effects

4.1.1 The designation of HPMAs in Scottish waters are likely to have significant environmental effects on the environment through the exclusion or restriction of certain marine activities. The key potential environmental effects or impact pathways that are likely to arise from the implementation of the Policy Framework and Site Selection Guidelines for HPMAs are as follows:

• Potential benefits to marine biodiversity and the marine ecosystem;
• Potential spillover benefits beyond site boundaries;
• Potential adverse effects resulting from the displacement of activities from site boundaries into new areas and the intensification of activities in areas where these activities already occur; and
• Potential adverse effects as a result of the replacement of existing or installation of new cable routes or pipelines that need to avoid transecting HPMAs.

4.1.2 In generic terms, the adoption of the Policy Framework and Site Selection Guidelines and designation of HPMAs will result in overall beneficial effects on the overarching topic Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna and contribute to the achievement of the SEA objectives as the HPMAs will target the removal of damaging marine activities or restriction of marine activities to non-damaging levels. In other words, the HPMAs will remove a number of pressures and/or reduce their magnitude that currently, or might otherwise in the future, occur within site boundaries. This will allow for ecosystem recovery and biodiversity enhancement, including the recovery of PMFs, and the protection of blue carbon and critical fish habitats.

4.1.3 In turn, the change in pressures within HPMAs may also result in the potential for spillover benefits beyond the boundaries of the sites. One of the benefits of restricting certain harmful activities in sensitive areas is the potential spill over of marine species from protected areas into unprotected areas^[39],[40]. Spill over occurs when there is a population surplus in the newly protected area and the carrying capacity of that area is surpassed. As the protected area cannot support all of the individuals present, a migration away from the more densely populated area will occur and this movement may be outwith the area of protection. This migration can result in a net increase in the number of marine species outwith the protected area^[41]. Furthermore the increases in biomass of exploited species can lead to increased production of their eggs and larvae within the protected area^[42]. There is, however, variation in the level of effectiveness and scale of benefits that removal of an activity (e.g. fisheries closure) can have and these are site dependent^[43];^[44];^[45];^[46]. The current conditions encountered within a site (e.g. current stock level, species present, nursery and spawning areas for those species, level of fishing activity/pressure prior to exclusion/restrictions being implemented) need to be characterised in order to be able to undertake a detailed assessment of the potential for spill over benefits to occur.

4.1.4 In addition, the adoption of the Policy Framework and Site Selection Guidelines are likely to support the development of more effective Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs). EIAs are required to be undertaken on regulated activities such as oil and gas activities or marine renewable developments. These assess the likely significant environmental effects of a project, including on current and proposed nature conservation sites. The evidence-based selection of proposed HPMAs and their subsequent designation will provide developers with a better understanding and appreciation of the marine ecosystem that needs to be protected. This greater clarity and confidence will help to ensure that developers undertake more effective EIAs for future developments. This in turn may reduce pressures associated with regulated activities that take place near to but outside the boundaries of the HPMAs.

4.1.5 Alternatively, developers may look to avoid progressing consented developments that have not been built and re-locating regulated activities some distance from HPMAs as they may require the consideration of appropriate mitigation measures. The avoidance of development near to the HPMAs by potentially harmful activities would, therefore, result in future environmental benefits within and outside of the HPMAs.

4.1.6 Although a number of particularly vulnerable habitats and species are already protected as PMFs (e.g. maerl beds, flame shell beds), the designation of HPMAs will provide a greater level of certainty on the specific areas of the marine environment that are considered particularly sensitive and need to be avoided by any potentially damaging activities. This certainty could, therefore, provide some potential marginal environmental benefits in terms of avoiding any future risk of damaging these sensitive habitats and species and also helping to support their recovery.

4.1.7 HPMAs may overlap either fully or partially with some existing MPAs in order to maximise the conservation benefits associated with stricter management approaches. HPMAs may also occur fully outwith existing MPAs. The overall environmental benefits may be potentially greater where HPMAs are located in areas outwith existing MPAs and are not subject to any existing conservation management, although this will depend on the biodiversity and ecosystem features being protected and their current value and condition.

4.1.8 The increased protection brought about by the HPMAs will also provide potential future benefits to the marine environment as they will restrict new activities that are prohibited or restricted from becoming established in HPMAs.

4.1.9 In terms of potential adverse environmental effects, the adoption of the Policy Framework and Site Selection Guidelines and designation of HPMAs will result in the displacement of certain marine activities and their associated pressures outwith the boundaries of the HPMAs. This could result in potential adverse environmental effects in other areas, where such activities are not managed. This includes the potential for transboundary effects to occur on EU Member States where activities are displaced outwith Scottish jurisdiction.

4.1.10 The designation of HPMAs may also result in future cable or pipeline routes being extended to avoid these protected areas. A longer cable or pipeline route is likely to involve a greater spatiotemporal scale of disturbance during installation, operation and maintenance which could potentially result in significant adverse environmental effects depending on the sensitivity of marine habitats and species outside the HPMAs that would be affected. There are a large number of marine cables that will be required in Scottish Waters in the near future, including areas earmarked for renewables development (such as ScotWind option agreement areas and INTOG areas). Additional pipeline routes may also be required to facilitate future carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS).

4.1.11 Overall, the environmental benefits of increased protection that will result from the designation of HPMAs are anticipated to be greater or at least balanced by the adverse impacts associated with displacement and longer cable or pipeline routes. The scale or magnitude of this impact will be assessed in detail for each HPMA that is selected and proposed for designation as part of a future updated SEA.

4.1.12 The overall impacts of HPMAs on the overarching topic Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna, in terms of their anticipated contribution to the achievement of the SEA objectives, is assessed at a qualitative level as shown below.

Impact of HPMAs on SEA objectives

1. To protect and recover marine ecosystems, including species, habitats, and their interactions (Objective met)

Protection of marine species and habitats within HPMAs could contribute to the achievement of this objective by minimising or avoiding the disturbance and/or damage of marine species and habitats.

2. To maintain and protect the character and integrity of the seabed (Objective met)

Protection of marine species and habitats within HPMAs could contribute to the achievement of this objective by reducing or preventing destruction of the seafloor.

3. To avoid the pollution of the seabed strata and/or bottom sediments (Objective met)

Protection of marine species and habitats within HPMAs could contribute to the achievement of this objective by reducing or preventing the potential disturbance and re-settling of sediment-bound contaminants and reducing contamination from marine activities that are excluded or restricted.

4. To avoid pollution of the marine water environment (objective met)

Protection of marine species and habitats within HPMAs could contribute to the achievement of this objective by reducing disturbance of the seabed and potential for increased suspended sediment levels and sediment-bound contaminants in the water column and reducing contamination from marine activities that are excluded or restricted.

5. To maintain or work towards achieving 'Good Environmental Status' of the marine environment (objective met)

Protection of marine species and habitats within HPMAs could contribute to the achievement of this objective by minimising or avoiding pressures that could result in a change to quality elements used to assess ecological status under the WFD and environmental status under the UK Marine Strategy Regulations.

6. To preserve and enhance existing marine carbon stocks and carbon sequestration potential (objective met)

Protection of areas that include habitats that are blue carbon sinks due to their fixation and sequestration ability could contribute to the achievement of this objective by reducing or preventing damage of these habitats.

Reasonable alternatives

4.1.13 Further to the potential benefits afforded by the designation of HPMAs, a high-level preliminary assessment of the potential environmental effects that might arise from a more stringent alternative management option has been undertaken. This is anticipated to result in a maximum level of potential beneficial and adverse environmental effects.

4.1.14 The exclusion of a greater number of marine activities from HPMAs, including those that are proposed to be carefully managed at levels considered non-damaging to the marine environment, , such as wildlife watching, may have some additional benefits on marine habitats and species within the HPMA and the wider marine ecosystem although these are likely to be limited particularly for activities that are considered to be occurring at non-damaging levels. Excluded activities are likely to be displaced to other areas outwith the HPMA boundary. The overall effect on the marine environment of excluding a greater number of marine activities, including those that are not considered to be at damaging levels in the wider region may be significant and will need to be assessed in more detail once HPMAs have been selected for designation and a site specific assessment can be undertaken.

4.1.15 In addition, there is potential for future benefits under a more stringent alternative management scenario from the prevention of the establishment of a larger number of marine activities in HPMAs.

Cumulative effects

4.1.16 There is the potential for cumulative effects to arise from the implementation of the Policy Framework and Site Selection Guidelines for HPMAs as a whole and also alongside other plans and programmes likely to be undertaken in Scottish seas.

Cumulative effects of the HPMAs as a whole

4.1.17 In terms of the combined effects associated with the designation of all HPMAs, the benefits would be additive, as a larger spatial area of marine habitat and associated species would be protected. The designation of a larger spatial area also provides for potential inclusion of a wider range of species and habitats within the wider MPA network. The scale of the displacement of existing activities to other areas, where such activities are not managed, as a result of the HPMAs will also depend on the spatial area of the HPMAs and their overlap with existing or future potential marine activities that would be excluded or restricted. These assumptions will need to be confirmed once the proposed HPMAs have been selected and their geographic location is known so that the potential environmental effects can be assessed as part of a future updated SEA.

Cumulative effects of the HPMA with other plans

4.1.18 The designation of HPMAs will, together with the wider MPA network and existing protection measures, further benefit the overarching topic of Biodiversity, Flora and Fauna in Scottish waters and contribute to the achievement of SEA objectives.

4.1.19 The boundaries of the HPMAs that are selected could overlap with current MPAs, some of which could already have existing fisheries management measures (Phase 1 measures in inshore MPAs) or measures that are being proposed and considered for adoption (e.g. Phase 2 proposed measures in inshore MPAs, proposed measures for PMFs and proposed measures in offshore MPAs). These measures have been or are in the process of being assessed separately and have the potential for cumulative effects with the proposed HPMAs. The HPMAs will extend the exclusion of fishing activities to a number of other marine activities. The overall environment benefits are, therefore, likely to be greater than those associated with the proposed fisheries management measures for MPAs, with larger areas of habitat highly protected within Scottish Seas as a result of the HPMAs.

4.1.20 There may also be cumulative adverse effects on the environment from the displacement of activities resulting from other plans in-combination with the designation of HPMAs. These include the existing fisheries management measures and proposed measures which are currently under assessment and yet to be fully consulted upon. In addition, other plans which could potentially interact with the proposed measures for offshore MPAs include wider marine spatial planning including the Crown Estate Scotland's first round of Offshore Wind Leasing in Scottish Waters (ScotWind), the Scottish Government's Sectoral Marine Plan for INTOG, National Grid Electricity System Operator's (ESO) Holistic Network Design (HND) under the Offshore Transmission Network Review (OTNR) and development and deployment of CCUS in Scotland. All these other plans are currently under assessment and will be considered in the updated SEA that will be undertaken once the proposed HPMAs have been identified.

4.2 Economy and other marine users

4.2.1 To consider potential economic costs, an initial scoping has been undertaken, identifying individual impact pathways for each sector. A high-level summary of the outcome of initial scoping is provided in Table , and details of the scoping of individual impact pathways for each sector is provided in Appendix A of the SEIA.

4.2.2 Aggregate dredging, aviation and wild seaweed harvesting were scoped out of the assessment. There is currently no existing or planned marine aggregate extraction in Scottish waters, aviation is not considered to require management measures, and wild seaweed harvesting predominantly takes place above mean low water springs (MLWS) and therefore would be outside of the boundaries of HPMAs.

4.2.3 In addition to whether each sector has been scoped in or out, Table also provides high-level commentary on:

• Type(s) of impact, and whether a priori impacts are anticipated to be low, medium or high (although this can only be quantified once the assessment of proposed sites has been undertaken);
• Risk of upstream and downstream effects (i.e. cost impact only, or GVA impact); and
• Potential for displacement of activity to other areas.

4.2.4 Detailed assessment methods and assumptions for each sector and impact pathway are set out in Appendix B of the SEIA. Input from stakeholders and consultees will support further development and finalisation of the methods and assumptions. All the methods generally entail making estimates of the cost of implementing restrictions and/or the impact of implementing the restrictions on operating revenues. Where possible, all impacts are quantified in monetary terms, with these values converted to current prices using the relevant Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deflators. Where impacts on economic activities have the potential to give rise to a change in the level of output, direct and indirect impacts on Gross Value Added (GVA) and employment are estimated using appropriate multipliers.

4.2.5 There may also be potential economic benefits for some marine sectors, and these are considered and identified where appropriate. However, quantification of economic benefits is uncertain as it is harder to predict if or where new businesses may establish, or existing businesses may expand.

4.2.6 Scoping and assessment methods are provisional at this stage and will be reviewed and refined in light of specific HPMA proposals.

Outcome of Initial Scoping

Sector: Aquaculture (finfish)

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap with existing or proposed aquaculture sites

Types of impact:

• Removal/ relocation of sites
• Additional licensing costs
• Opportunity costs

Anticipated scale of impact: High

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: Yes

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes

Sector: Aquaculture (shellfish and seaweed)

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap with existing or proposed aquaculture sites

Types of impact:

• Removal/ relocation of sites
• Additional licensing costs
• Opportunity costs

Anticipated scale of impact: High

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: Yes

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes

Sector: Aviation

Scoped in?: No

Comment: No management would be required for this sector

Types of impact: N/A

Anticipated scale of impact: N/A

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: N/A

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: N/A

Sector: Carbon Capture Utilisation and Storage

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap with potential CCUS locations

Types of impact:

• Additional licensing costs
• Deviation of new pipelines
• Opportunity costs

Anticipated scale of impact: Low

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes

Sector: Coast Protection and Flood Defence

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap with coastal protection and flood defence measures if HPMAs are in inshore area

Types of impact:

• Additional licensing costs

Anticipated scale of impact: Low

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: No

Sector: Commercial Fisheries

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap with commercial fishing activity

Types of impact:

• Loss of fishing grounds
• Minimal speed requirement
• Restriction on fixed engines and net and coble fisheries

Anticipated scale of impact: High

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: Yes

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes

Sector: Energy Generation

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: N/A

Types of impact:

• Additional licensing costs
• Deviation of new cable routes
• Additional mitigation costs
• Opportunity Costs

Anticipated scale of impact: Medium

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes (cables)

Sector: Marine Aggregate Extraction

Scoped in?: No

Comment: No current marine aggregate licences or licence applications in Scottish waters

Types of impact: N/A

Anticipated scale of impact: N/A

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: N/A

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: N/A

Sector: Military and Defence

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap of danger areas and practice and exercise areas

Types of impact:

• Revision of MESA
• Compliance with MESAT revisions

Anticipated scale of impact: Low

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: No

Sector: Oil and Gas

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: N/A

Types of impact:

• Additional licensing costs
• Deviation of new pipelines
• Additional costs for repairs and maintenance and decommissioning
• Opportunity costs

Anticipated scale of impact: Medium

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes (pipelines)

Sector: Ports and Harbours

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: N/A

Types of impact:

• Additional assessment costs

Anticipated scale of impact: Low-Medium

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes

Sector: Power Interconnectors

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap with future interconnectors

Types of impact:

• Additional assessment costs
• Deviation of new cable routes

Anticipated scale of impact: Low-Medium

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes

Sector: Recreational Fishing

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap with recreational fishing activities

Types of impact:

• Loss of sea and shore fishing sites

Anticipated scale of impact: Low

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes

Sector: Recreational Boating

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap with marinas and anchorages

Types of impact:

• Vessel speed restrictions
• Restrictions on anchoring
• Vessel number restrictions
• Additional licensing costs for marinas

Anticipated scale of impact: Low

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes

Sector: Seabed mining

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: No seabed mining activity currently, but potential management may preclude future activity of the sector in Scottish waters.

Types of impact:

• Additional costs for marine license determinations
• Opportunity cost

Anticipated scale of impact: Low

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes

Sector: Wild Seaweed harvesting

Scoped in?: No

Comment: Seaweed harvesting takes place above MLWS therefore no potential overlap.

Types of impact: N/A

Anticipated scale of impact: N/A

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: N/A

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: N/A

Sector: Shipping

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: N/A

Types of impact:

• Restrictions on discharge of waste material and ballast water

Anticipated scale of impact: Low

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: No

Sector: Telecom Cables

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap with future telecom cable routes

Types of impact:

• Additional licensing costs (new cables in relation to lifeline services)
• Deviation of new cable routes

Anticipated scale of impact: Low

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes

Sector: Tourism (including heritage assets)

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap with wildlife watching areas

Types of impact:

• Vessel speed restrictions
• Restrictions on numbers
• Comply with codes of practice

Anticipated scale of impact: Low

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes (if restrictions on numbers)

Sector: Water sports

Scoped in?: Yes

Comment: Potential overlap with water sports areas

Types of impact:

• Vessel speed restrictions
• Restrictions on numbers

Anticipated scale of impact: Low

Risk of upstream and downstream effects: No

Potential for displacement of activity to other areas: Yes (if restrictions on numbers)

4.3 People, population and health

4.3.1 The social impacts generated by the designation and management of HPMAs will be strongly connected to the nature, scale and distribution of the economic impacts (on both income and employment). Any significant change in employment, for example generated as a result of restrictions on fishing activity, can have significant social impacts (e.g. on health, crime). Based on consideration of the distribution of economic impacts and potential benefits in desk-based analysis (as described in Section 4.2), the assessment of social impact will then consider if any further socio-economic variables as per Box 1 of the SEIA guidance should be included in the analysis. The distribution of impacts on employment will focus on the likely location on land where those employment impacts are likely to be felt. For the fishing sector, the registered Home Port Districts of the vessels affected can be considered as a proxy for likely location of employment; this can be explored further for sites where impacts likely to be greater than others. The distribution of impacts on the fish processing industry will focus on the ports of landing of the affected vessels' catches, as a proxy for the linkage between the catches made from an HPMA at sea, and where those catches are landed and processed. This can also be explored further for sites and ports where impacts are likely to be greater than others.

4.3.2 Public sector costs are estimated at national level using agreed assumptions for all sites combined and based on discussions with Marine Scotland, NatureScot and JNCC. Costs in the following broad areas are considered:

• Site monitoring
• Compliance and enforcement
• Loss of revenue from seabed leases
• Promotion of public understanding; and
• Regulatory and advisory costs associated with licensing decisions

4.3.3 The ecosystem features of an HPMA contribute to the delivery of a range of ecosystem services. Management of the HPMA may improve the quantity and quality of the beneficial services provided, which may increase the value (contribution to economic welfare) of them. Impacts on the value of natural capital and ecosystem services may occur as a result of the management and/or improvement in condition of the ecosystem. However, both of these impacts can be uncertain for several reasons, including because the baseline conditions are not always known.

4.3.4 The ecosystem services analysis provides a qualitative description of the potential changes in ecosystem service provision associated with the implementation of HPMAs and associated management measures.

Combined and cumulative impacts

4.3.5 The cumulative impact of designating the proposed HPMAs will take an additive approach (i.e. it assumes that the cumulative impact is equivalent to the sum of the individual impacts within each site). In areas where there are several sites affecting a particular activity, further consideration will be given to the potential cumulative impact to describe qualitatively whether the overall impact might be larger or smaller than the sum of the individual impacts.

4.3.6 An in-combination assessment will also give consideration to how the significance of these impacts might vary when taking account of the total impact as a result of all proposed HPMAs combined with other current or planned developments to date, such as renewable energy generation development and the designation and management of other MPAs (e.g. NCMPAs and SACs), particularly where there is overlap between or proximity of these and proposed HPMAs.