Pension Age Winter Heating Payment: Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment
The Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment (BRIA) carried out in relation to the Winter Heating Assistance (Pension Age) (Scotland) Amendment Regulations 2025
Footnotes
1 The Scottish Fiscal Commission have said that their illustrative caseload is based on individuals and is not directly comparable with their previous PAWHP caseload of May 2025 as that was presented on a household basis. Reference: https://fiscalcommission.scot/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Jun-2025-SEFF-Publication-Supplementary-figures.xlsx (Figure S3.1)
2 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts Update – June 2025
3 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts (SEFF) - May 2025
4 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts Update – June 2025
5 Winter Mortality in Scotland 2023/24 (National Records of Scotland)
6 Age UK calls on everyone to look out for their older family members and friends this wintertime
7 Parliamentary Briefing - Rising energy prices and supporting older people this winter (Age UK)
8 Fuel Poverty (Target, Definition and Strategy) and Fuel Poverty Strategy: health impact assessment
10 Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (PAWHP): consultation analysis - gov.scot
11 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts – December 2024 | Scottish Fiscal Commission – Supplementary Figures – Figure 5.2
12 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts Update – June 2025 | Scottish Fiscal Commission
13 This distributional analysis is conducted using UKMOD microsimulation model and explores the impact of the latest policy in 2025-26. While it is not possible to model all household circumstances, the estimates remain robust: the approach ensures that total spending and caseload broadly align with forecasts from the Scottish Fiscal Commission for different policy options. The latest policy is compared against two counterfactuals: (a) The policy announced at the 2025-26 Scottish Budget, which restricts eligibility of the £203.40 and £305.10 payments to households receiving a qualifying benefit and pays £100 to all other pensioner households; (b) the universal policy which was in effect before 2024.
14 Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts Update – June 2025