Potential targets have been developed principally using data produced as part of the First National Assessment (FNA) of Potential Heat Network Zones, published in March 2022.
The FNA utilises the heat demands and outputs from the Scotland Heat Map, Home Analytics, and Non-Domestic Analytics. The approach and outputs align with the first steps of the current methodology for the identification of potential zones for heat networks that forms part of the LHEES Methodology. The report includes two main scenarios:
1. A higher estimate of potential (Higher Potential – referred to in the FNA as Baseline Criteria); and
2. A lower estimate of potential (Medium Potential – referred to in the FNA as Stringent Criteria).
The first of these sets a lower threshold in terms of heat demand, density, and distance, whilst the second sets a higher threshold, resulting in fewer potential areas being identified.
Table 1 below sets out a summary of three evidence-based options for a potential 2035 target. The FNA scenario datasets that have been used are shown next to each option. The table provides an indication of how these compare to non-electrical heat consumption.
|Option for potential 2035 target (FNA Dataset)||Heat supplied (TWh/annum)||Comparator: current non-electrical heat consumption A|
|Option 1 (FNA Medium Potential)||6||8%|
|Option 2 (FNA Medium Potential)||7||9%|
|Option 3 (FNA Higher Potential)||12.5||16 %|
Table notes: A Scottish Energy Statistics Hub > Energy Efficiency > Demand Reduction > Heat Consumption > Sector
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