Net Zero Assessment: independent review

Summary

The NZA pilot report successfully demonstrated the applicability and importance of embedding quantitative carbon assessment in the early stages of policy development and spending decision-making. This review concurs with the main report's conclusion that the NZA methodology is workable and credible, including the recommendation that it should be applied more widely across the Scottish Government.

It is agreed that the de minimis threshold above which policies should be quantitatively assessed should be lowered, although proportionality should be applied to avoid unnecessarily applying the NZA process. This review recommends that cumulative carbon emission impacts of all policies simultaneously should be considered in setting a de minimis threshold, to address the unlikely possibility that many policies appear to be under a threshold but when considered collectively they would result in significant emissions. However, the pilot study has indicated that that most policies reviewed would not result in increases in carbon emissions and even if these emissions were summed, the total would still likely be insignificant.

This contrasts with capital investment projects, e.g. involving buildings and infrastructure, where cumulative carbon emissions impacts are much more likely to be of relevance. It is important to note that National Planning Framework 4 and the associated planning process (including Strategic Environmental Assessments and Environmental Impact Assessments) ought to be consistent with the NZA process. Work is underway within the Scottish Government to develop planning guidance, considering research commissioned earlier this year, that should ensure this consistency.

The NZA process can be considered as a filter to quickly identify which policies have the potential to increase carbon emissions and hinder national progress towards net zero. It is a way of formalising and recording what should be happening in any case.

Following the recommendations contained in this review, the NZA process should be sufficiently robust to deploy across all potential policies to gauge their impact on carbon emissions and allow ministers to receive clear advice and make decisions in the knowledge that carbon emissions have been appropriately considered.

In summary, this review supports the Report’s findings and recommendations and is in agreement with its conclusion that the NZA pilot has laid a strong foundation for integrating carbon assessment into policy-making, thereby enhancing the Scottish Government's efforts to achieve its net zero targets and addressing the climate emergency.