GDP monthly estimate: September 2020

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the output of the economy in Scotland. These monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This publication is designated as experimental official statistics. This means that the statistics are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

Main Findings

In September, Scotland’s GDP is provisionally estimated to have increased by 1.6% compared to August. This is the fifth consecutive month of increasing GDP, but output remains 7.6% below the level in February prior to the direct impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In September there has been growth in all of the main sectors of the economy, but at a slower rate than seen over the summer months. Output in the services sector is estimated to have increased by 1.6% compared to August, production sector output increased by 1.4%, and construction sector output increased by 2.7%.

Using the experimental monthly statistics for Quarter 3 as a whole (July to September), GDP is provisionally estimated to have increased by 14.7%, after falling by a total of 22.0% across Quarters 1 and 2.

The Quarterly GDP First Estimate (national statistics) will be published on 16 December. Results for July to September will be revised when more detailed and comprehensive data are available at that time.

Important Information About This Release

These results are provisional and likely to be revised in the coming months as data sources are updated and methods are further improved.

Estimates of monthly GDP growth are inherently more volatile than quarterly or annual growth. In normal times it would be sensible to concentrate on the smoother rolling quarterly growth rate (latest three months compared to previous three months). However, due to the exceptional economic circumstances at this time, results in this release are mostly presented in terms of monthly growth rates, or the cumulative change compared to February. In this release for September there are also provisional estimates in quarterly terms for Quarter 3 (July-September).


September GDP Publication
September GDP Tables
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