GDP Monthly Estimate: October 2021

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) statistics measure the output of the economy in Scotland. These experimental monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This publication is designated as experimental official statistics. This means that the statistics are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

Main Findings

  • Scotland’s onshore GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2% in October, and output is now 0.4% below the pre-pandemic level in February 2020.
  • In the three months to October, GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.7% compared to the previous three month period (May - July). This reflects a slowdown in growth during the fourth quarter so far, relative to the growth of 1.0% in Quarter 3 (July to September).
  • Output in the services sector, which accounts for around three quarters of the economy, grew by 0.3% in October, with increases in eight of the fourteen subsectors.
  • Output in the production sector, which accounts for around 16% of the economy, increased by 1.0% in October. There was growth in three of the four subsectors, which offset a fall of 1.0% in the manufacturing subsector.
  • Output in the construction sector, which accounts for around 6% of the economy is estimated to have fallen by 3.4% in October.

Important Information About This Release

Estimates of monthly GDP growth are inherently more volatile than quarterly or annual growth. In normal times it would be sensible to concentrate on the smoother rolling quarterly growth rate (latest three months compared to previous three months). However, due to the ongoing impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, results are still mostly presented in terms of monthly growth rates, or the cumulative change compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.

All results are seasonally adjusted and presented in real terms (adjusted to remove inflation), and relate to Scotland’s onshore economy (which does not include offshore oil and gas extraction).

Further information can be found in the full publication below (pdf).

October Monthly GDP Publication
October Monthly GDP Tables



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