GDP monthly estimate: November 2020

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the output of the economy in Scotland. These monthly estimates have been developed to help track the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This publication is designated as experimental official statistics. This means that the statistics are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty.

Main Findings

Scotland’s GDP is provisionally estimated to have fallen by 1.4% in November, as restrictions on economic activity were extended or reintroduced across large parts of the country. This is the first fall in GDP after six months of growth following the easing of the first lockdown in 2020. Output remains 7.1% below the level in February, prior to the direct impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

In November, output continued to grow in the production and construction sectors, but fell by 2.2% overall in the services sector. Within services there were falls in nine of the fourteen subsectors, with the largest contributors to the drop being accommodation and food services, retail and wholesale, other personal services, and arts, culture and recreation. These are the subsectors which are directly affected by the restrictions in the local protection levels which were in place across Scotland throughout November.

Output in the production sector increased by 0.8% overall, with growth in manufacturing, mining, water and waste offset by a fall in the electricity and gas supply industry. Construction sector output is estimated to have increased by 1.8% compared to October.

Further information can be found in the full publication and results tables downloads.

Important Information About This Release

These results are provisional and likely to be revised in the coming months as data sources are updated and methods are further improved.

Estimates of monthly GDP growth are inherently more volatile than quarterly or annual growth. In normal times it would be sensible to concentrate on the smoother rolling quarterly growth rate (latest three months compared to previous three months). However, due to the exceptional economic circumstances at this time, results in this release are mostly presented in terms of monthly growth rates, or the cumulative change compared to February. 

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